As the Iowa General Assembly (IGA) moved closer to adjournment late Wednesday afternoon, Kathie Obradovich of the Des Moines Register wrote that the legislature is “poised for a landmark session.”  This analysis was based on late breaking movements on three key issues: education reform, property tax reform, and health care expansion.

Passage of reform bills in all three areas would certainly give legislators something to crow about, and the political love would be spread all around.

Governor Branstad and House Republicans could boast of passing what they argue is much needed property tax reform, Senate Democrats could claim victory on the Medicaid expansion impasse, and both sides embraced the true essence of compromise on education reform (House Republicans getting what they want on home school regulations and Senate Democrats getting what they want on teacher evaluation).

Where does that leave us in terms of state politics?

Pretty close to where we were in January, except every legislator can now say they contributed to making Iowa a better place to attend school, to do business, and live a healthy life.  Unlike 2009 or 2010 when state budget issues significantly impacted the gubernatorial race, the actions of the 2013 IGA are unlikely to shake up the governor’s race, or even state legislative races, in any meaningful way.  While some may argue Governor Branstad caved on Medicaid expansion (if in fact a health care deal has been reached), expanding Medicaid is the more prudent path in terms of public opinion.

Where all legislators, as well as the governor, may get dinged is in the time it took to pass education reform.  Unlike property taxes, and to some extent health care, there was a pressing deadline for the target of education funding.  What started off as a game of chicken between Senate Democrats and Governor Branstad quickly turned negative as school superintendents grew anxious and took to the airwaves begging the legislature to act.

Consider this: legislators took 129 days (in what was supposed to be a 110 day session) to pass basic education funding in the context of a nearly $800 million budget surplus.  Imagine what would have happened had both sides been negotiating in a time of severe economic turmoil.

Following the 2012 elections, Iowa was one of three states with a split legislature.  Thus, as expected, the 2013 session began with a big emphasis on compromise.  After 129 days both sides seemed to have embraced the concept.  The 2014 session will also be about compromise, but expect politics to overshadow everything else.  Oh, and the legislature is scheduled to gavel in for only 100 days next year…

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The recent controversies over what was known (and said) regarding the attack on the embassy in Benghazi, the IRS singling out conservative groups for investigation, and the Obama Administration’s secret monitoring of AP reporters suggest the president is in for a rough second term.

But, there are a few reasons to believe the president will come through this relatively unscathed.

First, a recent poll from Gallup indicates that barely a majority of Americans are following the Benghazi and IRS stories “somewhat or very closely.”  And, as expected, the folks (Republicans) who are following the stories closely already disapprove of the president and are looking to gain political points.

Second, action has already been taken in the case of the IRS with two top-level resignations, including that of acting commissioner Steven Miller.  Given that the IRS is routinely viewed as the least favorite government agency (2010 data from the Pew Research Center put approval at 47 percent) the scandal is likely to hurt the IRS more than the White House.

Third, favorability toward the Tea Party (a main target of the IRS) has waned.  As early as April of 2011, favorability toward the Tea Party was 14 percentage points under water (unfavorable at 47 percent and favorable at 33 percent), with both Democrats and Independents expressing disgust with the movement.  More recent data from a CNN/ORC poll show this trend has continued with unfavorable ratings outpacing favorable by 20 percentage points in March of this year.

Finally, what most people consider to be the investigative arm of government (besides the Government Accountability Office) is also the most detested.  Congress, whose most recent approval ratings from Gallup come in at 16%, is leading investigations into the IRS and Benghazi “scandals.”  Given that people are more approving of cockroaches than Congress (see poll results confirming this), any conclusions from the investigations will be viewed through partisan lens or as the same old politics as usual.

While the publicity surrounding the scandals certainly wreaked havoc on the Obama Administration, the president has good reason to expect little damage to his image or agenda.  In fact, the president’s approval rating has stayed relatively the same this month at 48-50 percent, with approximately 46 percent disapproval.

So while this week has been tough on the president, expect most Americans (with the exception of Republicans in Congress) to move on to more pressing concerns.

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A quick read through the political science research on governors leads to one clear prediction: Governor Branstad will win easily in 2014.

Start with the economy.  Research shows that federal and state unemployment rates negatively affect the approval ratings of governors; when unemployment rates go up, approval goes down. The unemployment rate in Iowa has been declining slowly but steadily since Branstad took office in 2011, and remains well below the federal unemployment rate.

On politics, Branstad’s comfortable margin of victory in 2010 bodes well for 2014, and though the evidence is somewhat mixed, his lengthy tenure in office in the 1980s and 1990s should also work to his advantage through name recognition and understanding of state politics (new research can be found here).

Work by James King and Jeffrey Cohen also shows that having a divided electorate and divided legislature can actually increase a governor’s approval rating.  Check on both accounts for Governor Branstad (we currently have a split legislature and the latest party registration numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office show Democrats and Republicans differ by less than one-tenth of one percentage point among all active voters).

Why does gubernatorial approval matter?  People are more likely to vote for an incumbent governor if they give that incumbent a favorable rating (see research here).  In other words, if you approve of the job Governor Branstad is doing, chances are you going to vote for him come Election Day.  (Even if Branstad doesn’t run the research suggests you would vote for the candidate of his party; e.g. Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds.)

Governor Branstad also has history on his side; Iowans tend to like their governors.  Consider the following facts:

Only two incumbent governors have lost their reelection bids in the last 50 years: Norman Erbe in 1962 and Chet Culver in 2010.

Between 1969 and 1999, Iowa had just two governors, Republican Robert Ray for 14 years (5 terms) and Republican Terry Branstad for 16 years (4 terms).  Remarkably, the average margin of victory across those nine elections was 12.5 percentage points.

So, to sum up: the empirical evidence and Iowa history certainly favor a Branstad victory.  If the 2014 gubernatorial race is going to be competitive, the Democrats are going to have to put forward a candidate that can raise money quickly (and lots of it) and has established name recognition throughout the state.  In other words, the Democrats should consider nominating former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack.  Otherwise, barring any massive state scandals or a sudden dip in the state’s economy, Branstad will cruise to victory next November.

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With Congressman Steve King out of the race for the U.S. Senate seat soon to be left vacant by Senator Tom Harkin, who will run for the Republicans?

At this point it is easier to talk about who is not running rather than who could possibly run.

The candidate with the most statewide appeal and name recognition, current Lt. Governor Kim Reynolds, has said she won’t run.  Current Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey, while not a household name but obviously capable of running and winning statewide office, recently decided not to run.  And let’s’ not forget that the other congressman considering a run, Tom Latham, who probably has more statewide appeal than Steve King, long ago decided against running.

So who is left?

According to the Des Moines Register, David Young, Chief of Staff to Senator Grassley, Matt Whitaker, Secretary of State Matt Schultz, State Senator Joni Ernst, and Rod Roberts are all possibilities.

Only Matt Schultz has run and won a statewide campaign.  But like Bill Northey, Schultz’s name is probably not well known throughout the state.  Where his name is known, it is likely due to the recent controversy over voter ID laws and removing names from the statewide voter file.

State Senator Joni Ernst is from southwest Iowa and probably not known outside of her district.  Her recent decision to co-sponsor a “personhood” amendment would raise serious red flags for voters (both Democrats and No Party folks) in the eastern part of the state.

Rod Roberts is currently the Director of the Iowa Department of Inspections and Appeals, and while he has run for and won office in the past (serving in the Iowa House of Representatives), his most recent venture resulted in a third place finish in the 2010 GOP primary for governor.

All of these candidates will have to spend a considerable amount of time and money getting their name out to potential voters across the state.  And, perhaps more importantly, with the “big” names out of the race, it is increasingly likely that the GOP will have a contested primary for the seat.  A hard fought primary will give Congressman Bruce Braley even more time to campaign and more time to determine the direction of the general campaign (think about how President Obama was able to shape the 2012 presidential race while Mitt Romney battled through primary after primary).

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I apologize for the delay.  Two kids under 5 and an emergency appendectomy have kept me busy of late.

Today is day 110 of the state legislative calendar; the last day state legislators receive their per diem payment for the session.  And it goes without saying that state legislators will be back in Des Moines next week, and possibly the weeks to come.

Legislators and the news media have focused on three key issues to be resolved before the session can be adjourned: education reform, property tax reform, and health insurance.  All three issues have seen progress this session as all three issues are now in conference committees (meaning a bill has passed each chamber but there are differences between the House and Senate versions that must be resolved before a bill can be sent to the governor).

The complexity of each issue and of course statehouse politics make it unrealistic to expect all differences to be resolved and three reforms bills to be signed into law anytime soon.

Education reform is the closest and probably the one with the most bipartisan support, but it has been sidetracked by disagreement over the use of test scores when determining teacher pay.

Property tax reform is Governor Branstad’s baby and, if passed, would give him a signature policy achievement heading into the 2014 gubernatorial election.

Health insurance for low-income Iowans is more difficult to read: the Iowa Senate has passed Medicaid expansion as provided by the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) but the Iowa House has passed its own version, the “Healthy Iowa Plan,” sponsored by Rep. Walt Rogers and backed by Governor Branstad.  Complicating the matter is the looming expiration date for IowaCare and Branstad’s impending request for a federal waiver to extend the program.

I expect something to be done on education reform, but property tax reform will have to wait, and health care remains a wild card due to federal guidelines.  Delaying some of these issues until the 2014 session is risky given that it will be an election year and most likely a year that will be favorable for Republicans nationally, and particularly for Governor Branstad in Iowa.

Of course, there is always the possibility the legislature will be called into special session later this summer or fall.  The passing of a few months will probably not change the facts surrounding health care or property taxes (or education), but special sessions are special because they can force legislators to do something they couldn’t do earlier.

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A front page story from today’s Des Moines Register offers an interesting discussion on the origins of our current political troubles.

Iowa House File 186 seeks to eliminate the ability of voters to flip the switch to vote a straight party ticket when they enter the voting booth (full text of the bill is available here).

Supporters of the legislation are quoted as arguing that the straight ticket option reduces voter sophistication (or the ability to deliberately reason about candidates) and increases political “divisiveness.”  In other words, supporters of the bill argue that current problems with the political system stem from the behavior of (and options available to) individual voters, not the conduct of the two parties, modern campaign tactics, or the influx of money.

Three problems with this argument:

1.) If the intent of this legislation is to force voters to become more rational when voting, then more information needs to be made available about the policy differences between candidates.  Research shows voters are highly irrational in terms of absorbing policy information but can be “rational” in choosing candidates that match in terms of personality and character traits.  The notion of a rational policy voter is unlikely given the age of political sound bites as well as voters’ reluctance to seek out such information.

2.) Will the absence of a straight-ticket option really entice individual voters to consider voting for a candidate of the opposing party?  Decades of political science research tells us that party identification is the number one predictor of vote choice.  And while Democrats will disapprove of their candidates from time to time, as will Republicans, the probability of voting for a candidate of the opposite party is remote.

3.) While public opinion suggests voters view the act of voting as both a civic norm and choosing between the lesser of two evils, roll call data of legislative votes indicates the difference between the two major parties is growing.  The number of party line votes, votes in which all Democratic legislators vote one way and all Republican legislators vote another, is increasing.  Congress is now as polarized as ever as a result; party line votes also seem to be occurring more regularly at the state level.  Why should voters try to distinguish between a Democrat and Republican if, once in a legislature, the candidate is likely to follow the party line?

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Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds was identified this morning as one of 14 “State Republican Officials To Watch” in 2013 by Lou Jacobson of Governing Magazine.  Prior to the retirement announcement of U.S. Senator Tom Harkin, there was increasing speculation that Governor Branstad was grooming Reynolds to be the state’s next chief executive (a post never held by a woman).  Now, suddenly, her name is being tossed around as a possible challenger to the presumptive Democratic nominee for Harkin’s seat, U.S. Representative Bruce Braley.

But don’t expect Governor Branstad to give up his post just yet.  In a poll released yesterday by Public Policy Polling, Branstad comes out on top in hypothetical matchups against Chet Culver, Bruce Braley, and Jack Hatch (State Senator from Des Moines).  The only matchup in which the margin narrows to less than six perecentage points is against former governor Tom Vilsack.  A closer look at the numbers shows Vilsack with the highest favorability ratings of any candidate (at 51 percent).  Vilsack also has the largest percentage point advantage among Obama voters from 2012.

Should Reynolds run for the U.S. Senate (also a post never held by a woman from Iowa), it would free up Branstad to run for the office he loves (for an unprecedented 6th term).  As Governor Branstad pointed out on The Steele Report last Sunday, he is approaching the record for the longest serving governor in the history of the United States.  Reelection in 2014 would ensure he breaks the record.

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As you probably now know, U.S. Senator Tom Harkin announced he will not seek reelection in 2014.  His upcoming retirement creates several interesting scenarios for the Senate (and other) races.  Here is my quick take:

1) U.S. Representative Bruce Braley (D) from IA’s 1st Congressional district is the leading contender for the seat.  This is of no surprise to anyone who follows politics, but should Braley announce his intentions for the seat it would suggest the Iowa Democratic Party (and perhaps the national party) see Democrats as having a better chance of holding Harkin’s Senate seat than taking the Governor’s Office from Republican control (Braley was also thought to be a leading contender for the governor’s race in 2014).

2.) Should Braley run, the 1st Congressional district in Iowa will be wide open.  The Des Moines Register ran an article speculating on possible candidates, including Cedar Valley State Senators Bill Dotzler and Jeff Danielson.  The district leans Democratic.  According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s website, as of January 2, 2013, among active voters, the breakdown among Democrats, Republicans, and No Party registrants is 33.3%, 27.8%, and 38.8%, respectively.  Put another way, any Republican running will have to be a moderate to win.

3.) Money will be everywhere in 2014.  According to OpenSecrets.org, Bob Kerrey and Deb Fischer each raised over $5 million in the race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Nebraska this past fall.  Expect at least as much for Harkin’s seat in 2014.  Should Braley run for Harkin’s seat, spending on the 1st Congressional district race will also be eye-popping—a competitive race could see both candidates raising close to $2 million.  Finally, the governor’s race (with or without Branstad) will generate a lot of attention and a lot of money, and the victor will have a lot of control over the happenings in Des Moines.

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The first week of the 85^th Iowa General Assembly is in books.  It would be unfair to say the week was unproductive because this time is not about passing legislation but rather setting the agenda while taking in the pomp and circumstance of the swearing-in of state legislators, the Condition of the State address, and the State of Judiciary address.

The first few weeks are a time when everything is on the table, when we see some of the more extreme bill proposals of the session.  Consider these two examples:

First, there was discussion in the Iowa House about proposing a bill preventing federal agents from confiscating guns owned by Iowa residents.  Similar such bills have been proposed in other states.  Second, a bill was introduced in the Iowa House supporting medical marijuana.   Both bills face an uphill battle, the latter in the Republican-controlled House and the former in the Democratic-controlled Senate—not to mention the fact that federal law supersedes state law.

Other proposals are more likely to see action, including a bill sponsored by Cedar Valley State Senator Jeff Danielson calling for more transparency in campaign spending as well as a public financing option for political campaigns.  Polls routinely show support for such legislation and, if passed, would help ease concerns regarding the influence of money in politics.

Bills with low probabilities of passing will probably trickle out over the next couple of weeks, but come February, the session will be in high gear discussing property tax and education reform, the latter of which is off to a complicated start.

According to the Des Moines Register, Governor Branstad is refusing to consider “allowable growth” for K-12 spending until his reform package is acted upon, while Senate Majority Leader Michael Gronstal has indicated exactly the opposite (that the governor’s reform package will not be considered until allowable growth is passed).  Expect this impasse to slowly dissolve over the coming weeks, but also that both parties will dig in on what they see as core principles.

The coming weeks should be more productive.  And let’s not forget, we can watch both chambers in action in real time thanks to recently installed cameras in the Iowa Senate and existing cameras in the Iowa House.  Of course, there is some research, notably that of political scientists, John Hibbing and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, which suggests that watching debate and compromise will do little to improve perceptions of government.

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Governor Branstad delivered the 2013 Condition of the State address this morning, his 18^th as Iowa’s governor.

The speech began with a fair amount of credit-taking for the state’s current financial status, specifically the roughly $800 million surplus.  Although the governor was short on specifics, he did say the legislature should “return the surplus to Iowa taxpayers.”  Expect this to be a major point of contention this session; figuring out who gets and deserves a tax cut, and the amount of such a cut, are never easy decisions for a legislative body.

The governor again highlighted his use of a biennial budget with five year budget projections.  Although this move was debated considerably in the previous session, legislators seemed to have adapted to this reality.  The trend nationally, however, has been for states to move away from such budgets due to the unpredictable nature of state revenues (see this report from the National Conference of State Legislatures for a brief summary).

The rest of the speech was focused on three main policy areas: property tax relief and reform, improving education, and “making Iowa the healthiest state in the nation.”

The governor’s speech left room for agreement between Democratic and Republican lawmakers, most likely on initiatives aimed at improving Iowans’ health, providing a college ready “seal” for high school seniors, and raising teacher pay (though the amount will be debated).  But expect some push back from Democrats on other proposals, specifically property tax reform.

Most notably, Governor Branstad called for abolishing the “allowable growth” formula for K-12 schools in favor of direct state aid.  This will certainly rile some Democrats.  While the governor later reached out to educators by saying that “teachers are not the problem,” doing away with allowable growth (a formula in place since 1992) will certainly create some anxiety among those in the education profession.  There will also be questions about the extent to which the state can and will commit to reimbursing local governments for any losses incurred due to the combining of property classes and limiting the state’s rollback formula to 2 percent.

It is now in the hands of the legislature.

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