This is a follow up to a previous post on the geopolitics of the state. Here I consider the whether we can discern any trends in political leadership and geography of the state.
If we divide the state into four quadrants using Interstate 80 and Interstate 35, we would expect the upper-right (northeast) quadrant to be the most Democratic. Below are the lists of newly elected leaders in the Iowa House and Iowa Senate. The underlined cities are those that fall outside of the upper-right quadrant.
| Hometowns of leaders in the 2013 Iowa House | ||||||
| Democratic Leaders | Republican Leaders | |||||
| City | Pop. | City | Pop. | |||
| McCarthy | Des Moines | 203,433 | Paulsen | Hiawatha | 7,024 | |
| Abdul-Samad | Des Moines | 203,433 | Upmeyer | Clear Lake | 7,777 | |
| Mascher | Iowa City | 67,862 | Olson | DeWitt | 5,322 | |
| Smith | Marshalltown | 27,552 | Rogers | Cedar Falls | 39,260 | |
| Gaskill | Ottumwa | 25,023 | Smith | Okoboji | 807 | |
| Average | 105,461 | Windschitl | Missouri Valley | 2,838 | ||
| Hagenow | Windsor Heights | 4,860 | ||||
| Fry | Osceola | 4,929 | ||||
| Average | 9,102 | |||||
| Hometowns of leaders in the 2013 Iowa Senate | ||||||
| Democratic Leaders | Republican Leaders | |||||
| City | Pop. | City | Pop. | |||
| Gronstal | Council Bluffs | 62,230 | Dix | Shell Rock | 1,296 | |
| Jochum | Dubuque | 57,637 | Bertrand | Sioux City | 82,684 | |
| Sodders | State Center | 1,468 | Feenstra | Hull | 2,715 | |
| Bolkom | Iowa City | 67,862 | Ernst | Red Oak | 5,742 | |
| McCoy | Des Moines | 203,433 | Smith | Davenport | 99,685 | |
| Horn | Cedar Rapids | 126,326 | Kapucian | Keystone | 622 | |
| Dotzler | Waterloo | 68,406 | Average | 32,124 | ||
| Ragan | Mason City | 28,079 | ||||
| Average | 76,930 | |||||
Surprised? Perhaps we shouldn’t be.
Democrats tend to do better in more urban areas, and this quadrant is certainly the most urban (includes Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Davenport, Waterloo, and Dubuque). Iowa Senate Democrats lost some of their geographic diversity with the retirement of Senate President Jack Kibbie (Emmetsburg).
One correction to note to this posting. I should clarify that while there are clear population differences in terms of the hometowns of Democratic and Republican leaders in the Iowa House and Iowa Senate, the size and shape of legislative districts for each chamber are determined by the Legislative Services Agency (LSA) through a nonpartisan process that does not consider partisanship or incumbency status (Iowa is quite unique in this regard). A full report by the LSA for new district lines can be found here. In the case of the Iowa House, the ideal district size (as determined by the LSA) is 30,464 people. Importantly, the average deviation from this number for all house districts must be less than 1 percent, or about 300 people (the largest and smallest districts must differ by less than 5 percent, or approximately 1,500 people). So while the hometowns of House leaders may vary widely, the size of their districts is approximately equal. The point is that the surrounding area of their districts varies considerably. For the Iowa Senate, the ideal population is 60,927 and the same deviation rules apply. In other words, all Senate districts (leaders and non-leaders) are approximately 60,000 people.
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This post was written by Chris Larimer on December 4, 2012
