Which path will Governor Reynolds follow?

July 18, 2017 0 Comments
Which path will Governor Reynolds follow?

Last Saturday, the Des Moines Register released the first Mediacom/Iowa Poll containing approval numbers for Governor Kim Reynolds.  According to the poll, 46 percent of Iowans approve of the job she is doing, 24 percent disapprove, and 30 percent are not sure.  That equates to a “popularity” rating of 65.71 (% approve/(% approve + % […]

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Three variables for 2018

July 16, 2017 0 Comments

Ten days ago, Alan Abramowitz, an elections expert and prominent political scientist, posted an essay showing how three variables can predict with considerable precision the outcome of midterm congressional elections.  The party that controls the White House, the number of seats held by each party prior to the election, and the difference in the “generic […]

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What should Senator Ernst do?

July 3, 2017 0 Comments

An article posted on Politico this morning referenced a new poll of Iowa voters from Public Policy Polling.  Before getting into the data, the poll was commissioned by Save My Care, “a progressive group dedicated to defeating repeal attempts” on the current health care debate.  The article cites Public Policy Polling as a “Democratic firm,” […]

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Voting commission may not sit well with voters

July 2, 2017 0 Comments

Last Thursday, the president signed an executive order creating the “Advisory Commission on Election Integrity.”  The purpose of the commission, which is to investigate supposed voter fraud from the 2016 election, has drawn criticism from both academics and practitioners. Several state election officials, including Iowa’s Secretary of State Paul Pate, are refusing to cooperate.  In […]

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Polarization and two types of honesty

June 26, 2017 0 Comments

As mentioned in the previous blog, prior to President Trump’s speech in Cedar Rapids last week, I sat down with 10 Trump supporters (sampled conveniently by walking around and asking to speak with supporters who were not preoccupied) to get their take on the president. When asked “What do you like about President Trump?”, several […]

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President speaks to Iowans: Part campaign, part convention

June 22, 2017 0 Comments

In many ways, President Trump’s speech at the U.S. Cellular Center in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday was an extension of the speech he gave in the same city nearly eight months ago.  By my account, at least twenty-one issues (or combinations of issues) were mentioned last night and back in October. As presidents (and members […]

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Tone not helping health care debate

June 20, 2017 0 Comments

Even if a revised American Health Care Act is passed by the U.S. Senate this week or next, don’t expect attitudes toward Congress to change. Previous research has shown that approval of Congress is not linked to policy gains and losses, but instead more of a reflection about how Congress operates.  Voters are turned off […]

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Governor Reynolds facing crucial first test

June 13, 2017 0 Comments

As reported in the Des Moines Register on Tuesday, lower than projected state revenues have created a budgetary shortfall for the current fiscal year.  In May, the National Conference of State Legislatures reported that Iowa was one of twelve states facing a shortfall in FY 2017 and FY 2018.  How these shortfalls are handled will […]

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Iowa’s new governor

May 24, 2017 0 Comments

Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds was officially sworn in as Governor Reynolds this morning.  In a previous blog, I discussed my research on what makes Iowa governors popular (and unpopular).  A complete review of that research can be found here. Governor Reynolds is now officially the incumbent and will be for the 2018 primary.  A challenge […]

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How Democratic is your county?

May 5, 2017 0 Comments
How Democratic is your county?

This past semester I worked with Sarah Hofmeyer, a UNI student double-majoring in political science and public administration, on creating a map to show changes in partisanship over the last five presidential elections for all counties in Iowa (2000-2016).  To do this, we first collected party registration data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s website.  […]

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