Is Iowa becoming a “red” state?

August 29, 2016 0 Comments

A colleague called my attention to an interesting article by Ben Jacobs of The Guardian on the potentially shifting nature of Iowa’s political culture.  Among other reasons mentioned, the author pointed to party registration numbers as evidence of the state becoming more Republican and, as a byproduct, more amenable to a Trump candidacy than other […]

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Turnout makes Iowa hard to predict

August 26, 2016 0 Comments

Recent polls have shown Iowa to be among the most competitive of the so-called “battleground” states.  As I noted in a previous blog, while some of these states have seen a separation in the polls between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (with Clinton leading), along with an improvement in President Obama’s approval rating, that is […]

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Iowa shaping up to be biggest “battleground”

August 17, 2016 0 Comments

A new poll released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday shows Hillary Clinton with sizeable leads in Colorado and Virginia, but still within the margin of error in Iowa.  These results mirror the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist battleground state polls released last week. Unlike other battleground states where favorable ratings for President Obama coincided with considerable […]

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New battleground polls, same pattern

August 12, 2016 0 Comments

A new set of NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released on Friday show a similar pattern to last week’s battleground polls in Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  The new polls, conducted in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado show the same three trends: presidential approval improving an improvement in Hillary Clinton’s net favorability rating no change in […]

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Iowa still a battleground

August 9, 2016 0 Comments

The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll shows two things: 1) that Iowa continues to be among the most competitive states heading into this fall’s presidential election, and 2) Hillary Clinton’s image may slowly be improving. Unlike results from two other battleground states in the poll, there has been relatively little movement in the […]

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Democratic National Convention: Final thoughts

July 28, 2016 0 Comments

The final night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) included a focus on Hillary Clinton’s fit for the presidency, with military leaders making the case for her readiness to be commander in chief.  As mentioned in a previous blog, the issue of national security is one in which Clinton has failed to gain a significant […]

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Democratic National Convention: 3rd night highlights

July 27, 2016 0 Comments

Last week I raised the question of whether the harsh rhetoric on display at the Republican National Convention would effectively expand the electorate for Donald Trump.  At this point, the same question can now be asked of the Democratic National Convention. Like First Lady Michelle Obama on Monday night, Vice President Biden delivered a very […]

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Democratic National Convention: 2nd night themes

July 26, 2016 0 Comments

Tuesday night at the Democratic National Convention differed significantly from the previous night.  While Senators Warren and Sanders drew sharp contrasts between the qualifications of Hillary Clinton and her Republican opponent, Tuesday night’s speeches were focused on Hillary’s strength and personal qualities. Former President Bill Clinton led the way in not only heartfelt praise of […]

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Democratic Convention: 1st night recap

July 25, 2016 0 Comments

Going into the Democratic National Convention, the expectation was that there would be less emphasis on what political scientists call “negative partisanship” (voting against a political party rather than for it) in favor of a more balanced approach.   As I discussed in my previous blog, this was a major theme of the GOP convention last week, with […]

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GOP convention recap: Fear and the electorate

July 21, 2016 0 Comments

Although there was some variation, going into the Republican National Convention the trend among polls was that Hillary Clinton had a slight lead but within the margin of error.  Within most polls, however, there was a clear pattern among demographic subgroups and most analysts agreed that for Donald Trump to win in November, he needed […]

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