What to watch in the 2018 gubernatorial race

April 26, 2017 0 Comments

Research on American governors has generally indicated that two factors significantly affect a governor’s popularity among constituents: 1) state economic performance relative to the national economy, and 2) shared party affiliation with the president.  In short, politics and economics. In my book on Iowa governors, Gubernatorial Stability in Iowa, I argue there is a third […]

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No wall, no problem for Trump supporters

April 25, 2017 0 Comments

According to NBC News, President Trump is now reconsidering the inclusion of a border wall in this year’s budget.  If the wall is not included, it will mark the second major campaign promise that has fallen short in recent weeks (the other being the failure to replace Obamacare with the American Health Care Act). But […]

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Policy differences among Trump and non-Trump voters in Iowa

April 14, 2017 0 Comments
Policy differences among Trump and non-Trump voters in Iowa

In the previous blog I used CCES data to show how Trump and non-Trump voters in Iowa differ in regards to concealed-carry permits.  In a series of Twitter posts, I showed how this partisan divide extends to environmental regulation and foreign policy intervention. The Iowa House recently passed a bill banning abortions after 20 weeks.  […]

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Partisan divide on concealed-carry permits

April 11, 2017 0 Comments
Partisan divide on concealed-carry permits

As O. Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa reported on Monday, Governor Branstad is expected to sign legislation that “will allow the nearly quarter of a million Iowans with concealed weapons permits to carry their guns into the State Capitol.”  Given the significance of this change to existing law, it is worth examining how Iowans feel […]

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Do you approve or disapprove of the state legislature?

April 11, 2017 0 Comments

Is Iowa a red state or blue state?  Students in my “Iowa Politics” class each spring are required to survey 50 registered voters in Iowa on this very question.  As a class we intend to report our findings in early May, but for now the question is also relevant as the state legislature continues to […]

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Did race and education determine 2016 vote in Iowa?

March 31, 2017 0 Comments
Did race and education determine 2016 vote in Iowa?

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2017   Using CCES data (see earlier blog), Jason Weeden found little evidence to support the notion that a significant number of non-college educated white voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 switched to Donald Trump in 2016.  Weeden’s analysis was based on the full sample from CCES. What […]

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Obama voters in Iowa more open to Trump?

March 30, 2017 0 Comments
Obama voters in Iowa more open to Trump?

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 2017 Much has been said about the extent to which Iowa “swung” to the right in the 2016 election, the result of which was likely due to a significant number of “Obama voters” going for Trump.  Using the newly released Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), I examined the proportion of […]

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Partisanship, partisanship, partisanship

March 28, 2017 0 Comments
Partisanship, partisanship, partisanship

Source: Sarah Binder/voteview.com Courtesy of Sarah Binder, renowned congressional scholar, above are the ideological points for all current members of the U.S. House (Democrats are in blue and Republicans are in red).  Sarah used data from voteview.com which stores data on roll call votes on members of Congress going back to 1879.  The ideological scores, […]

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Gridlock not an issue (yet) in Iowa

March 25, 2017 0 Comments

Recapping the recent failure of Republicans to hold a vote on the American Health Care Act (AHCA), Sarah Binder, a well-respected congressional scholar, wrote that “Unified party control is no magic bullet.”  Indeed, that is the case this year at the federal level and is often true at the state level. Republicans in Iowa currently […]

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New data on why Iowans voted for Trump

March 21, 2017 0 Comments

Earlier this month, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) preliminary data set was released.  The CCES has long been used by political scientists and the 2016 file includes “a nationally representative sample of 64,600 American adults” surveyed before and after the 2016 U.S. presidential election. I recently went through the file and pulled data […]

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