Does the 1st Congressional District really lean Democratic?

November 22, 2016 0 Comments

In my previous blog I examined county-level votes within the 1st Congressional District, comparing vote totals for the Republican presidential candidates in 2012 and 2016.  The considerable shift observed in that analysis is also evident when looking at the vote for 1st Congressional District candidates in 2014 and 2016. First, in terms of party registration, […]

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1st District completely reverses itself from 2012

November 18, 2016 0 Comments

While the analysis of voting data from last week’s election continues, early reports in key states suggest Donald Trump was able to win rural areas by larger than expected margins.  For example, in Wisconsin, while Clinton won the urban areas of Madison and Milwaukee by margins similar to what Obama did in 2012, she lost […]

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Iowa votes and swings the most

November 9, 2016 0 Comments

As mentioned in my election recap blog, turnout nationally was down from earlier predictions. In Iowa, the latest data from the Iowa Secretary of State’s website indicates 1.56 million votes cast for the top of the ticket.  As a percentage of active registered voters, this is down slightly from 2012.  I had predicted turnout in […]

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Unexpected results

November 9, 2016 0 Comments

I was wrong many times throughout this campaign. From Donald Trump’s dominance throughout the Republican nomination process, to the competitiveness of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic caucuses and primaries, to Donald Trump’s election as president last night, I was wrong. Why? Political science research shows that the “invisible primary” matters, that endorsements from party leaders […]

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Final thoughts before Election Day

November 7, 2016 0 Comments

A few things to consider before election results start pouring in tomorrow night. First, Iowa remains a bit of an outlier among swing states.  In an October 6 blog, I showed that based on polling averages from RealClearPolitics, Iowa was on pace to swing the most among the classic five swing states (designated as “battleground” […]

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Grassley’s reelection bid is tough and safe

November 1, 2016 0 Comments

Sunday’s edition of “The Steele Report” featured an interview with U.S. Senator Charles Grassley who is up for reelection this cycle.  During the first part of that interview, Grassley commented that “this is the most difficult reelection” he has experienced during his time in the U.S. Senate dating back to 1981. When you look at […]

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The election from the perspective of a political scientist and voter

October 31, 2016 0 Comments

A colleague recently commented on the competing vantage points the 2016 election presents when viewed through the lens of a political scientist and that of a citizen. The argument goes that as a political scientist, this election has been fascinating.  Academics are now having serious discussions about whether this election is the exception to three […]

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Growing polarization among Iowa counties

October 26, 2016 0 Comments

A recent analysis in The Atlantic shows that in four battleground states (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio) the Democratic advantage in terms of presidential vote share has increased in more urban and diverse areas since 2004.  Rural and less diverse areas, by contrast, have become more Republican. Does such a division exist in Iowa? […]

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Are you a Clinton-Grassley voter?

October 12, 2016 0 Comments

In August, Jason Noble of the Des Moines Register provided a fascinating and in-depth look at the extent to which voters in Iowa have split their tickets when voting, specifically the ability of Senator Chuck Grassley to “win over” Democrats. Based on recent polls, that analysis will again ring true this Election Day. On Sunday, […]

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Even among battleground states, Iowa stands out

October 6, 2016 0 Comments

As was the case in 2008 and 2012, just a handful of states are getting the majority of attention in this year’s presidential race.  These “battleground states,” also called “tossups” or “swing” states, are where campaigns are spending the vast amount of their time and resources. Iowa is one of these battleground states, and as […]

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