Chris Christie’s chances…not good

June 30, 2015 0 Comments

Governor Chris Christie announced his bid for the 2016 Republican nomination for president today.   What are his chances?  Not good. First, the positives. Four out of the last six presidents are former governors, and Christie is a Republican governor of a “blue” state, presumably making him someone who can “reach across the aisle.” Christie’s agenda […]

Continue Reading »

Did Walker overplay his hand?

June 28, 2015 0 Comments

Republican presidential candidates were quick to criticize the Supreme Court’s ruling on same-sex equality.  For candidates relying on the social conservative vote in Iowa (e.g. Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal), however, Friday’s ruling was a chance to stand firm against what some call an “assault” on religious freedom. But one candidate went further […]

Continue Reading »

Contenders and pretenders

June 18, 2015 0 Comments

Donald Trump’s official entrance into the 2016 presidential campaign drew a considerable amount of attention as expected.  Trump, should he make the cut for one of the debates, is also likely to attract attention more for the things he is likely to say rather than the substance of his policy proposals. At this point, it […]

Continue Reading »

State government turning into Congress?

June 2, 2015 0 Comments

Few question that Congress has become increasingly polarized over the last 30 years, and indeed research examining roll call votes supports this notion (summary of research can be found here).  Such polarization, some argue, is the cause of the significant drop in the productivity of Congress in terms of legislation passed (summary of this research […]

Continue Reading »

New candidates, same storyline

May 28, 2015 0 Comments

Two more Republican candidates are now officially running for the 2016 GOP nomination for president: former US senator Rick Santorum and former New York governor George Pataki.  Although it is still early in the race (8 months until the caucuses), the addition of Santorum and Pataki to such a crowded field is not “game changer.” […]

Continue Reading »

Straw Poll struggling for relevance

May 21, 2015 0 Comments

The announcement that Mike Huckabee will not participate in this year’s Straw Poll is a major setback for the event.  Already, the biggest name in the GOP field (Jeb Bush) has declined.  That decision, as I noted in a previous blog (found here), made sense from a vote-getting perspective.  Huckabee’s decision, however, is more fundamental. […]

Continue Reading »

Jeb Bush made the right decision on Straw Poll

May 18, 2015 0 Comments

As announced on KWWL News last week, Jeb Bush will skip the Iowa Straw Poll this year. Immediately, questions were asked about the extent to which this would hurt Bush’s chances in Iowa regarding the caucuses. Based on research Professor Donna Hoffman and I did at the 2011 Straw Poll (paper can be found here), […]

Continue Reading »

Christie’s chances fading quickly

May 11, 2015 0 Comments

A Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll released on Sunday shows New Jersey Governor Chris Christie polling at 7 percent among likely Republican primary voters, one percentage point behind Donald Trump and sixth overall. The sagging poll number is notable given that it comes from Republicans in a nearby state. It is one thing for […]

Continue Reading »

Celebrity campaign

May 4, 2015 0 Comments

Two more celebrity candidates officially entered the race for the Republican nomination for president in 2016: Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, and Dr. Ben Carson, a famed retired neurosurgeon. In terms of polling, Carson is the best positioned, but he is still registering in the single digits. Fiorina, Carson, and Donald Trump (should he […]

Continue Reading »

The effect of “The Donald”

April 30, 2015 0 Comments

According to KWWL news, Donald Trump spoke to a full auditorium at Wartburg College on Wednesday. For a man polling in the single to nonexistent digits, that is quite impressive. The attraction of Donald Trump is in large part based on his celebrity status. But what effect would a Trump candidacy have on the presidential […]

Continue Reading »