Hillary still okay in Iowa

August 31, 2015 0 Comments

The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll released Saturday night showed Hillary Clinton with a 7 point lead over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a lead that many in the media considered narrow and evidence of vulnerability. Upon closer inspection, however, three findings from the poll suggest Clinton is still in a strong position to win […]

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The power of the reluctant candidate

August 26, 2015 0 Comments

The speculation about Vice President Joe Biden running for the Democratic nomination in 2016 has picked up considerably in recent days. The Vice President has reportedly spoken to both President Obama and Senator Elizabeth Warren about a possible run. And some pundits on the Democratic side argue that the email controversy surrounding Hillary Clinton, coupled […]

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How solid is Trump’s support?

August 21, 2015 0 Comments

I received an email this morning from a colleague at another institution asking whether Trump’s lead in Iowa is real. In my previous blog (found here), I speculated on the source of Trump’s support in recent polls, questioning whether voter apathy or voter frustration is behind his surge in the polls. Most polls in Iowa […]

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Trying to understand Trump

August 19, 2015 0 Comments

In my previous blog (found here), I showed that for Republican candidates, the results on caucus night are at best a mediocre predictor of what will happen a week later in the New Hampshire primary. So what to make of Donald Trump’s surge which has left him atop the polls in both Iowa and New […]

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A statistical note: should New Hampshire follow Iowa?

August 4, 2015 0 Comments

The ever expanding GOP field has made for interesting polling.  Some candidates fare well Iowa or New Hampshire, but few candidates poll well in both states.  Such inconsistency is often presented by the media, pollsters, voters, and even some candidates, as evidence that Iowa’s leadoff position in the nomination process skews reality. But perhaps this […]

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1st District once again a “toss-up”

July 24, 2015 0 Comments

As expected, the race for the Democratic nomination for the 1st Congressional District is heating up. Pat Murphy, former Iowa Speaker of the House and the Democratic nominee who lost to current Congressman Rod Blum in 2014, has entered the race. The 1st Congressional District leans Democratic with urban areas of Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and […]

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The race for the few

July 21, 2015 0 Comments

At what point do voters say enough? As in, there are enough candidates in the race from which to choose, all other interested parties please wait until 2020. With 16 candidates now in the GOP field, a reasonable question to ask before joining is: Are there any votes left? According to the Des Moines Register, […]

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The Big Wide-Mouthed Frog Theory of Iowa politics

July 15, 2015 0 Comments

I was recently asked to be a contributor to the “About the Caucuses” blog sponsored by “The Caucus Project” at the Harkin Institute for Public Policy and Citizen Engagement at Drake University.  While that blog will generally be different than the blog I write here, I thought my first entry for “The Caucus Project” would […]

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Make debates random

July 9, 2015 0 Comments

The Washington Post is reporting on the potential problems and backlash of Fox News using national polls for tabulating the top ten candidates based on polling averages. This debate is worth reading about and has implications for Iowa because there are considerable differences between national polls and polling in individual states. Consider the following exercise: […]

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Chris Christie’s chances…not good

June 30, 2015 0 Comments

Governor Chris Christie announced his bid for the 2016 Republican nomination for president today.   What are his chances?  Not good. First, the positives. Four out of the last six presidents are former governors, and Christie is a Republican governor of a “blue” state, presumably making him someone who can “reach across the aisle.” Christie’s agenda […]

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