Cruz gaining momentum, but…

November 24, 2015 0 Comments

As reported on KWWL this morning, Senator Ted Cruz is now second in a Quinnipiac University poll of likely caucus-goers in Iowa. Donald Trump still leads at 25 percent, but Cruz is a close second at 23 percent, while Ben Carson is at 18 percent and Senator Marco Rubio is at 13 percent. Both the […]

Continue Reading »

Is “the Donald” finally done?

November 11, 2015 0 Comments

The GOP debate in Milwaukee may prove to be a tipping point in the unusual candidacy of Donald Trump. Political scientists have shown that his rise in the polls is significantly correlated with media attention, meaning that when the media stops writing about Trump, his poll numbers will drop. The debate on Tuesday night also […]

Continue Reading »

Being the frontrunner: Who is next?

November 6, 2015 0 Comments

Candidates need attention to gain recognition and support from the public. But as Ben Carson is quickly finding out, more attention also means more scrutiny. Two recent national polls, the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and the CBS/New York Times poll show Carson ahead of (though within the margin of error) Donald Trump who had been […]

Continue Reading »

Can you imagine the contrast?

November 4, 2015 0 Comments

Last week, Iowa’s Charles Grassley cast his 12,000th vote in the United States Senate. Perhaps just as impressive is that his last 7,474 have been cast consecutively (see story here)— according to a tribute from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, he has not missed a vote since 1993. When considered in light of the current […]

Continue Reading »

Ryan’s reluctance may prove beneficial

October 23, 2015 0 Comments

U.S. Representative Paul Ryan is playing the role of the unambitious decision maker quite well. To be fair, Ryan’s circuitous path to the role of Speaker of the House does not appear to have been planned. In fact, the events following Speaker John Boehner’s resignation announcement suggest there is or was a considerable degree of […]

Continue Reading »

New book on Iowa governors

October 9, 2015 0 Comments

I apologize for the self-promotion but my research on the staying power of recent Iowa governors has been published in book form by Palgrave Press and is available by clicking here. The website provides a brief summary of the book as well as reviews and a sample chapter. I use several data sources including approval […]

Continue Reading »

Outsiders leading now, but likely to fade

October 6, 2015 0 Comments

The most recent NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll showed Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina as the top three most preferred candidates among “potential” caucus-goers in Iowa. History suggests the likelihood of more than one of those candidates staying there is small. Consider the two most recent winners of the GOP caucuses. Rick Santorum edged Mitt […]

Continue Reading »

Unhappy voters

September 28, 2015 0 Comments

A series of recent Gallup polls demonstrates the extent to which public sentiment toward the American political system is waning. First, on confidence in the basic operations of government, less than 40 percent (38 percent) of Americans have “a great deal” or “fair amount” of trust in the federal government to “handle domestic issues.” Focusing […]

Continue Reading »

Why is Trump leading in Iowa?

September 11, 2015 0 Comments

The Quinnipiac University Poll released Friday morning shows Donald Trump still leading in Iowa among likely Republican caucus-goers, with 27 percent support compared to 21 percent for Ben Carson and 9 percent for Ted Cruz. According to the poll, Trump’s appeal most likely stems from three factors: his personality, voter frustration with government, and the […]

Continue Reading »

Hillary fading?

September 10, 2015 0 Comments

The new Quinnipiac University Poll released Thursday has garnered considerable attention as it shows Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucus-goers by one percentage point. Ignoring that the lead is clearly within the margin of error, the narrowing of the race between Sanders and Clinton has led some to speculate that Clinton is […]

Continue Reading »