Small sample or informed electorate, or both?

February 12, 2016 0 Comments

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have now cast ballots (or stood in groups) expressing their preferences for candidates for president. And ever since, pundits have been trying to project who has momentum, who is likely to win the nomination, and who is likely to be elected in November. But voters in both states are […]

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Caucus geography

February 6, 2016 0 Comments

Any statewide election in Iowa starts with an analysis of the “big 9” counties, those counties with 50,000 or more active registered voters. According to the Iowa Secretary of State’s website, those counties include Black Hawk, Dubuque, Johnson, Linn, Polk, Pottawattamie, Scott, Story, and Woodbury. Combined these nine counties account for nearly 50 percent of […]

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What to watch for on caucus night

January 30, 2016 0 Comments

To say the results on Monday night will hinge on turnout is stating the obvious. But a closer look at the numbers reveals just how important overall turnout will be to the results, particularly the campaigns of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Using data maintained by George Washington University and the Iowa Secretary of State’s […]

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Republican caucus math at UNI

January 26, 2016 0 Comments

This is a follow up blog regarding the mock caucus conducted at UNI on Monday night. Below are the results from the Republican Caucus (in the previous blog I discuss the results from the Democratic Caucus). Just a reminder, these results are from a mock caucus conducted for educational purposes only (see previous blog for […]

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Democratic caucus math at UNI

January 26, 2016 0 Comments

As reported by Jessica Hartman on KWWL News, the Northern Iowa Student Government (NISG) and Department of Political Science at UNI co-sponsored a mock caucus Monday night. The purpose was to demonstrate to UNI students how the caucuses work for both Democrats and Republicans. PLEASE NOTE, this was purely an educational exercise as all students […]

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Where are the strategic voters?

January 22, 2016 0 Comments

In the latest CNN/ORC poll, 6 in 10 likely Democratic caucus-goers named Hillary Clinton as the candidate with “the best chance of winning in the general election in November,” a 22 point lead over her rival, Senator Bernie Sanders. Yet, in terms of overall preference, Clinton trails Sanders by 8 percentage points, 51 to 43 […]

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Redistricting politics

January 20, 2016 0 Comments

During last week’s State of the Union address, President Obama advocated for redistricting reform, saying: “We have to end the practice of drawing our congressional districts so that politicians can pick their voters, and not the other way around. Let a bipartisan group do it.” In Iowa, this is not a concern as the nonpartisan […]

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Underperforming

January 19, 2016 0 Comments

The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll released last Thursday shows Hillary Clinton with just a 2 point lead over Senator Bernie Sanders, including a 14 percent (6 point) drop in Clinton support from the previous poll. And therein lies the paradox, for both parties. In terms of what political scientists call the “invisible primary” […]

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Turnout is key

January 14, 2016 0 Comments

Just 17 days remain until the Iowa Caucuses, and both Democratic and Republican candidates are focused on turning out likely supporters.  For Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, however, turnout on caucus night may be an indicator of the durability of their respective campaigns. Dennis Goldford of Drake University, who also directs the Iowa Caucus Project, […]

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10 candidates in 10 days

January 6, 2016 0 Comments

This is not a post about candidate visits, but rather about who will survive the 10 days after the New Hampshire primary is held on February 9 and the two subsequent events to be held on February 20: the Nevada Democratic Caucus and South Carolina Republican primary. The results from Iowa are likely to spell […]

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