Straw Poll struggling for relevance

May 21, 2015 0 Comments

The announcement that Mike Huckabee will not participate in this year’s Straw Poll is a major setback for the event.  Already, the biggest name in the GOP field (Jeb Bush) has declined.  That decision, as I noted in a previous blog (found here), made sense from a vote-getting perspective.  Huckabee’s decision, however, is more fundamental. […]

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Jeb Bush made the right decision on Straw Poll

May 18, 2015 0 Comments

As announced on KWWL News last week, Jeb Bush will skip the Iowa Straw Poll this year. Immediately, questions were asked about the extent to which this would hurt Bush’s chances in Iowa regarding the caucuses. Based on research Professor Donna Hoffman and I did at the 2011 Straw Poll (paper can be found here), […]

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Christie’s chances fading quickly

May 11, 2015 0 Comments

A Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll released on Sunday shows New Jersey Governor Chris Christie polling at 7 percent among likely Republican primary voters, one percentage point behind Donald Trump and sixth overall. The sagging poll number is notable given that it comes from Republicans in a nearby state. It is one thing for […]

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Celebrity campaign

May 4, 2015 0 Comments

Two more celebrity candidates officially entered the race for the Republican nomination for president in 2016: Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, and Dr. Ben Carson, a famed retired neurosurgeon. In terms of polling, Carson is the best positioned, but he is still registering in the single digits. Fiorina, Carson, and Donald Trump (should he […]

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The effect of “The Donald”

April 30, 2015 0 Comments

According to KWWL news, Donald Trump spoke to a full auditorium at Wartburg College on Wednesday. For a man polling in the single to nonexistent digits, that is quite impressive. The attraction of Donald Trump is in large part based on his celebrity status. But what effect would a Trump candidacy have on the presidential […]

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Retail politics not working yet

April 28, 2015 0 Comments

One of the hallmarks of the Iowa Caucuses is that “retail politics” works. That is to say, candidates who are out and about meeting with voters tend to do better than candidates who are less frequent visitors to the state. Cross-referencing the Des Moines Register’s “candidate tracker” with Tuesday’s poll from Public Policy Polling shows […]

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No more “canceled” votes

April 23, 2015 0 Comments

Between 1985 and January of 2015, Iowa voters grew accustomed to seeing Senator Grassley vote one way and Senator Harkin vote the other way when it came to the contentious issues of the day. Now, with Joni Ernst holding Iowa’s other U.S. Senate seat, we are getting a different picture. As mentioned in a previous […]

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Bush’s lead could be trouble for Iowa

April 20, 2015 0 Comments

Results from a CNN/ORC poll released Monday morning are not particularly surprising, but may spell trouble for the GOP in Iowa should the results hold. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead over her potential Democratic challengers, polling at 69 percent, 58 points ahead of Joe Biden who is in second. Among […]

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Hillary makes Iowa irrelevant (for the Democrats)

April 13, 2015 0 Comments

The Iowa Caucuses have always been about the “expectations” game. A candidate who fails to win but exceeds expectations gets a boost in terms of media coverage and attention going forward into the New Hampshire primary. Examples abound, including: John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, Mike Huckabee in 2008, Pat Robertson in 1988, George […]

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1st District tossup

April 9, 2015 0 Comments

With Gary Kroeger’s announcement, three candidates are now seeking the Democratic nomination for the 1st Congressional District in Iowa to challenge current U.S. Representative Rod Blum. Why such interest? As was mentioned prior to the 2014 election, the district leans Democratic. According to the Secretary of State’s Office, as of April 3, 2015, 32.3 percent […]

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