Iowa no longer a battleground state?

June 19, 2016 0 Comments

Iowa is routinely included among a small number of states known as “swing states” or “battleground states,” states that will be competitive in the general election in November.  But does this grouping still apply? On Sunday, Politico ran a story discussing Hillary Clinton’s ad buy in eight swing states, Iowa being one of them.  However, […]

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Less safe, but not vulnerable

June 9, 2016 0 Comments

On Wednesday, the Des Moines Register editorial board issued a sharp critique of Senator Grassley’s role as chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee.  And since mid-February, state and national Democrats have viewed his reelection as less safe than usual. But less safe is not vulnerable. To date, there has been little in the way of […]

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1st District primary takeaways

June 7, 2016 0 Comments

Even before the results of Tuesday night’s Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District (CD), pundits had noted that incumbent Rod Blum was in for a tough reelection bid.  In fact, the district is seen as one of the few likely to switch parties in November, with analysts putting the race as “leans Democratic” or […]

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Sanders voters and Donald Trump

May 25, 2016 0 Comments

On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he thinks he will “get close to 40 percent” of current Bernie Sanders supporters this fall.  This number seems wildly inflated.  In fact, in a Sidewire discussion earlier in the day before Trump made his comment, I mentioned it might be closer to 10 percent. But think about what Trump […]

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Why are pollsters still asking about Sanders?

May 24, 2016 0 Comments

Politico featured a story Tuesday morning on the continuing trend of Bernie Sanders outperforming Hillary Clinton in head to head polling matchups with Donald Trump.  Given that Sanders is essentially mathematically eliminated, what is the purpose of polling about a small probability event? This question spawned a Sidewire discussion among analysts and pundits as to […]

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Campaigns confused about Iowa?

May 11, 2016 0 Comments

In the last week, two Iowans have been mentioned as possible VP picks for the two likely party nominees.  As reported in numerous outlets, Senator Joni Ernst is on a “short list” of potential picks for likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.  And just yesterday, David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, wrote in a […]

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Cruz is out, Trump is in

May 3, 2016 0 Comments

Donald Trump’s victory in Indiana tonight followed by the suspension of Ted Cruz’s campaign all but guarantees that Trump will be the nominee.  It is worth repeating: Donald Trump is most likely the Republican Party nominee for president in 2016. What is amazing is that Donald Trump can now turn his attention to the general […]

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Presidential NIMBY

April 28, 2016 0 Comments

This blog is co-authored with Scott Peters, Associate Professor of Political Science at UNI. A while back we were discussing the relatability of the current group of presidential candidates.  In previous blogs I’ve discussed my “big wide-mouthed frog theory of Iowa politics” as it relates to this topic—that voters have to feel comfortable approaching candidates […]

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Cruz picks Fiorina…Why?

April 27, 2016 0 Comments

Breaking news this afternoon that Senator Ted Cruz intends to pick Carly Fiorina as his running mate.  Besides “putting the cart before the horse” as my colleague Kedron Bardwell put it during our conversation on IPR’s River on River (Cruz is nowhere near being the nominee yet), the pick is likely inconsequential in terms of […]

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Distrust and disgust

April 27, 2016 0 Comments

Tuesday’s primary results provided significant boosts to both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.  But the results also point to an intriguing paradox: While both candidates have mathematically eliminated their competition, both candidates are also mathematically more unpopular than their competition. In an AP-GfK poll of adults (not party insiders) released earlier this month, Clinton’s unfavorable […]

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