Posted under Precipitation Totals, Winter Weather

The water vapor satellite (image below) shows low pressure just north of the US/Canadian border and another low in southern Nevada. The low in Canada will drop south and than east while the low over Nevada will move east. Positions of these will be important in the forecast

The surface low tracks (image below) show the surface low weakening as it moves into Iowa by Monday morning.  The surface track from the low in the southwest will drop into Texas and than turn north toward Ohio. That track is not the most favorable for heavy snow for eastern Iowa. That doesn’t mean we won’t have any…there are factors to consider….like the upper low forecast path.
The liquid forecast out of this storm is about 0.50-0.75″ and with a snow ratio of some where between 15 and 20 to 1…that could give us some heavy snow (more than 6″). Right now it looks likely we will get more than 4″ of snow but less than 10″. The problem might be the amount of moisture making it this far north.

The jet stream is positioned west to east on Monday not pushing the Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. There is expected to be a lot used up by the surface low with heavy snow in southern Missouri and heavy rain south of there before it has a chance to reach this far north. So the BIG question is how much moisture are we really going to get.

The Rest of Today: Light snow and flurries will continue with little or no accumulation.

Tonight: Light snow will continue through the night with some light accumulation by morning 1-2″.

Monday: Snow will continue throughout the day with an additional 2-4″.  The wind will not be much of a concern at this point but Tuesday will be different story. The wind will be from the east at 10-15 mph and temperatures in the mid-upper  20s.

Monday Night: Snow continues with an additional accumulation of 1-2″ by Tuesday morning.  Wind NE 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: The snow tapers off from west to east around mid-day. Storm total of 4-8″ across eastern Iowa with some isolated higher amounts are possible. The wind will be gusty from the northwest (20-30 mph) causing blowing and drifting snow all day. Travel will be difficult Monday and Tuesday. 

Check back for more updates during the next few days.

Posted under Uncategorized

I was looking a weather data (no surprise there) and thought this was a good graphical look at how the temperatures were in January in Waterloo. The first 12 days were below normal with just about every morning below zero and daytime highs not making it above 10 degrees. The temperatures returned to normal to slightly above normal readings on January 13th. The temperatures remained that way until the 26th when the temperatures dropped below normal again and remained that way for the rest of the month.

Posted under Temperatures

The Department of Natural Resources has issued an Air Quality Advisory for the entire viewing area until noon on Saturday. Fine particulate levels near EPA health standards are expected to persist across the area until noon on Saturday. The Department of Natural Resources recommends that individuals with respiratory or heart disease, the elderly and children limit prolonged exertion until air quality conditions improve.

Posted under AIr Quality

The persistent dry northeast wind has prevented any snow from accumulating today. We have had an occasional snow shower or flurries but that is about it. No more than that is forecast for the rest of today and tonight. The map below shows the northeast wind due to the position of the low pressure system to our southeast.

The map below shows the radar early this afternoon with just a few light snow showers across Iowa and even that is not accumulating to very much. We have a few holes in the cloud cover over parts of northeast Iowa pushing the temperatures in the mid 30s. All of the moisture to our south is the storm system that will bring heavy snow (some places 1-2 feet) to the mid-Atlantic state and northeast US.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

Are you thinking about getting flood insurance? The time to act is now!

Flooding is one of the greatest causes of disaster damage and loss each year. While some areas are more prone to flooding than others, no place is completely immune. Even in high risk areas, people tend to wait until a flooding is imminent before considering a flood insurance policy for their home and property. This delay often means it’s too late.

Flood Insurance in the U.S. is provided through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Policies require a 30-day waiting period before becoming effective. But Mother Nature does not grant a 30-day grace period from flood waters. Snowmelt flooding, heavy rainfall downpours, and flash flooding can occur with little warning. Even where flooding occurs more regularly and slowly, 30 days may be too long.

What is the risk?

An area’s flood risk can and does change over time. New development, changes in levee classification and environmental changes can change how flood waters impact an area. FEMA is constantly updating flood hazard maps. These new flood maps, also, known as digital flood insurance rate maps (DFIRMs), show flood risk at a property.

It is important for communities to review updated FEMA maps. The risk level of a particular area may have changed significantly along with flood insurance requirements. If an area has been mapped into a high-risk area, residents may be required to purchase flood insurance if a mortgage is acquired through a federally regulated or insured lender. If property is mapped out of a high-risk area, flood insurance costs may even decrease. People who live near a levee may now have higher flood risk as hundreds of levees across the country no longer meet federal standards for protection. So when new maps are issued, these areas are now shown as high risk.

For questions about the National Flood Insurance Program go to www.floodsmart.gov

Posted under Flooding, NOAA

Tonight:Cloudy with a few flurries as the air is still dry and it will take most of the night to saturate before the light snow falls. Lows will be in the mid-upper 20s. The dry east wind will prevent any accumulating snow from reaching the ground until tomorrow morning.

Friday/Friday Night: Light snow will develop in the morning and continue through Friday night. The snow will end early Saturday morning with a storm total of 1-3″ area wide. The wind will be a little but of an issue at 10-20 mph from the NE. It will be more of a heavier snow than a powdery snow like we have had in the recent past. Highs on Friday will be near 30 and Friday night dropping into the low 20s.

Weekend: An isolated snow shower or flurries early on Saturday otherwise cloudy with a light wind as highs will be in the mid 20s Saturday but slightly colder (low 20s) on Sunday. The next storm system will get closer to the area late Sunday with light snow developing toward evening.

Extended: Monday and Tuesday we will have a chance of snow with highs near 20. It will be dry Wednesday and Thursday with highs near 20.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

Earthquake Details

Click here for map location.

Posted under Earthquake

Friday, February 5 is National Weatherman’s Day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of America’s first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation.

Many of us take weather information for granted. Turn on a light switch, you get light. Turn on your television or radio, or check a web site and you get the weather forecast. It’s easy to forget that around the clock, dedicated meteorologists and weathercasters are vigilantly creating forecasts to help you plan your day, and issuing warnings to help keep you safe.

Posted under Humor, Miscellaneous, Weather History

If you are looking for a lot of snow…eastern Iowa will not be your place. The heavier snow snow will be west if I-35 with snow tomorrow. It will not make much movement east before the energy dissipates and another low develops SE of Iowa. The low will than move east dumping heavy snow from Indiana to the east coast.
Currently there are Winter Weather Advisories (purple color) for far western Iowa north and south from ND to TX. The other area of the country that will be heavily impacted by this storm will be, as mentioned above, IN to the east coast. Winter Storm Watches (blue color) are posted for that area for the weekend.

The HPC snow map below shows the best chance of the heavier snow to be east of us. The heavy snow will not move east very much. Our snow on Thursday night-Friday night will be light. 1-3″ in eastern Iowa. Parts of central and western Iowa will see 3-5″.

Another good representation of the snow forecast through the weekend is the NAM model below.

Here is the model output from the GFS for snow forecast in Waterloo.

Posted under Uncategorized