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Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

UPDATED at 4:00 PM

Tonight: Clear and chilly. Low: 37-41. Wind: NE Light.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 67-69. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low: 47-51. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 60s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.

Memorial Day: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: low 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: near 80.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Tonight the sky will be clear as temperatures by Friday morning will be chilly. Some locations will fall into the 30s.

Friday will be a beautiful spring day with sunshine, a light wind and highs near 70. Temperatures will be cooler than normal but at least the sun will be shinning.

The weekend looks wet. There is no easy way to say it. There is a pretty good chance of showers/storms each day from Saturday through Tuesday. Here is the WPC forecast map for Saturday morning.

Not only will we have chances of rain, but it will also be cool with highs in the 60s. The weekend will be breezy. The wind will be from the southeast all weekend at 10-20 mph. The maps below show the amount of rain forecast from Friday evening to Sunday evening.

Temperatures are forecast to warm to near or into the low 80s by Wednesday with, by then, needed dry weather.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

After the EF5 tornado tore through Moore, OK Monday I was doing some searching around for data and came across some interesting stuff. Iowa ranks tied for second with the six F5/EF5 tornadoes behind Oklahoma and Alabama with 7.

# of F5/EF5 Tornadoes Per State

7 Oklahoma
7 Alabama
6 Iowa
6 Kansas
6 Texas
4 Ohio
4 Mississippi

Here is a map showing the location and path of the 6 tornadoes.

This is how they are listed by the Storm Prediction Center for Iowa:
June 27, 1953        Adair
October 14, 1966   Belmond
May 15, 1968         Maynard
May 15, 1968         Charles City
June 13, 1976        Jordan
May 25, 2008       Parkersburg

There have been 59 F5/EF5 tornadoes (including Moore, OK) since good record keeping began in 1950.

There have been 7 EF5 tornadoes in the last 3 years. The 7 previous F5/EF5 tornadoes came in a 12 year period.

The southern most F5 tornado was on May 27, 1997 in Jarrell, TX.

The northern most F5 tornado was on June 20, 1957 in Fargo, ND.

The eastern most F5 tornado was on May 31, 1985 in Niles, OH

The western most F5 tornado was on May 11, 1970 in Lubbock, TX.

The winds are estimated to be 200+ mph in an F5/EF5 tornado.

Posted under Severe Weather

7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

Posted under Precipitation Totals

From NWS
1989: Severe thunderstorms produced strong winds and large hail across Iowa. Winds gusted to 95 mph at Dunkerton and hail as large as baseballs fell just north of George in Lyon County where a brief tornado touchdown also occurred.

1882: Unusually cold weather resulted in widespread crop and garden damage and an amazing late season snowfall across southeastern Iowa. Hard frosts on May 22nd and 23rd did considerable damage to fruit, trees, and early vegetables across most of the state. At Ames the frost was reported to have been the heaviest known at this time of the season and “the foliage of many forest trees has been discolored from its effects.” At Fort Dodge an observer noted that “the heavy frost is believed to have killed all the fruit; corn and potatoes were killed in the ground.” Ice formed on standing water as far southeast as Fort Madison. Even more incredible was the snow that fell from late on May 22 into the early morning hours of the 23rd across about the southeastern quarter of the state, noted from Des Moines and Marshalltown east southeast to the Mississippi River. At Des Moines light rain changed over to snow at 11 pm and continued into the night, with the Weather Bureau observer estimating half an inch of snowfall. At Marshalltown snow began shortly after midnight, while at Washington 4 to 6 inches of snow fell “in the early part of the morning.” At Muscatine, “it commenced to snow about 2 o’clock a.m. and continued until sunrise. About two inches fell.” At Clinton one inch of snow was reported, while at Davenport 3 inches of snow fell but by sunrise only 1 inch remained on the ground. Reports from Mahaska, Wapello, and Van Buren counties stated that between half an inch and 2 inches of snow fell during the storm. Only during the unbelievable storm of May 28, 1947 has any snow ever been recorded in Iowa on a later date of the spring.

23 May 1878 → An F4 tornado struck Mineral Point, WI killing 17 and injuring 45. A record book was carried 60 miles from a schoolhouse. In Primrose Township, the deed to Chandler Farm was found 10 miles away. Also, an F4 tornado moved from Elgin to Barrington in northeast Illinois. A farmhouse was lofted 150 feet into the air before shattering, killing the two occupants. 23 May 2003 → Dense fog in Maryland was responsible for an 80-car pile-up on I-68 near Finzel.

Posted under Weather History

Posted under Flooding, Photo

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UPDATED at 4:45 PM

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered light showers. Low: 47-53. Wind: NW 10-15 mph

Thursday: Decreasing clouds. High: 65-68. Wind: N 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 40-44. Wind: NE Light.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 60s

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 60s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: low 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: low 80s.

Clouds and scattered light showers, associated with a surface and upper level low right over Iowa, will continue through the evening. The showers will taper off after midnight. The image below shows the position of the upper level low.

The clouds will linger into the morning Thursday before clearing with plenty of sunshine for the afternoon. The temperatures will remain below normal through the holiday weekend. A large area of high pressure will settle in across the middle of the country from Canada Thursday and Friday. Friday will be sunny with a light wind, but again temperatures will be cooler than normal. Here is the WPC forecast map for Thursday evening.

A stationary front will develop south of Iowa Saturday. This front will transition to a warm front located across Missouri Sunday through Tuesday before the front begins to lift north across the state Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front we will be a chance of showers/storms each day. These are not all day rains, but each day has a chance of rain. Here is the rain forecast from Friday evening to Saturday evening.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal until the warm front lifts north of Iowa…this doesn’t happen until Tuesday afternoon. After the front passes to our north the high temperatures will warm back into the 80s.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

From NWS
2004: A severe weather outbreak occurred for the second consecutive day with storms developing on the afternoon of May 22nd and continuing into the morning of the 23rd, producing at least 20 tornadoes across Iowa. Fortunately most of these were relatively weak and affected open country with no injuries occurring. Some of the storms produced very large hail including incredible 5.5 inch diameter stones just northwest of Slater. Some storms also produced very heavy rain and flooding with accumulations of 5.20 inches at Colo and 6.67 inches near Ames. At Waterloo a total of 6.96 inches of rain fell in four days from May 21-24, and by the end of the month their total of 11.39 inches broke the record for the wettest May on record at that location.

1873: Severe weather struck southeastern Iowa as a tornado tore a path through Keokuk, Washington, and Louisa counties before crossing into Illinois. Very large hail fell along its track with hail stones 4.5 inches in diameter found at Sigourney and stones as large as hen eggs picked up in Washington four hours after the storm. The storm killed 8 people and injured at dozens of others in Iowa. The worst destruction occurred north of Washington when the tornado was a half mile wide and produced F4 damage at times, including at a school six miles north of town where a student and teacher were killed and eight other students seriously injured. The U.S. Army Signal Corps, ancestor of the modern day National Weather Service, conducted the first ever detailed tornado damage survey following this storm.

Posted under Weather History

The data for the Moore, OK tornado is preliminary.

Posted under Severe Weather