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Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

I mentioned in the afternoon forecast post the potential for snow Saturday according to the model guidance. Take a look at what the 18z GFS model (most recent run that just came out) did to the storm. It has pushed it south. The map below is for Saturday morning.

This kind of thing is going to be an issue in the forecast during the next few days. So don’t cancel any plans for the weekend just yet or don’t get your hopes up on lots of snow. It will be a waiting game.

Posted under Update

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 25-28. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 41-50. Wind: W 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 23-28. Wind: W 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: mid 40s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain/snow (late PM). High: low 40s.

Saturday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of snow. High: low 30s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of snow (AM). High: low 30s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 30s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 30s.

Early Afternoon Analysis: Another warmer than normal day. The temperatures are noon across the state range from 41F in NW Iowa to 59F in SE Iowa. The wind is in the process of shifting from the SW to the NW as a cold front is passing through the state. The cold front is attached to a 1004 mb low in northern Wisconsin. At 850 mb, there is cold air advection across the Iowa. The temperatures range from 3C in western Iowa to 7C in eastern Iowa with a west wind at 10-20 knots. At 500 mb, there is a small trough across the Midwest putting Iowa in a southwest flow with wind speeds of 50-60 knots. The temperatures are -19C in SE Iowa and -26C in NW Iowa. The 300 mb level, shows the jet stream running SW to NE across Iowa and Wisconsin with a jet max of 100 knots over northern Wisconsin. The visible satellite image shows just a few clouds over NE and SE Iowa but most of the state is sunny. See map below.

This Evening/Tonight: The sky will be mostly clear tonight as the front moves east and high pressure moves closer to Iowa. Lows tonight will still be mild for this time of year.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: High pressure over Iowa will make for a pleasant day with very little wind and mild temperatures again reaching the 40s. Not much change for Wednesday night as the sky remains clear as lows drop into the 20s by morning.

Thursday: Another mostly sunny day with above normal high temperatures. There will be changes ahead as we get to the weekend.

Extended Forecast (Fri-Tue): The weather story in this time frame is the potential winter storm. The models have been trending toward colder air in place as the moisture moves into the state. The sky will become cloudy Friday. Exact timing on the start of the precipitation this far out is hard but right now it looks to be some time in the afternoon…maybe late afternoon. The NAM and GFS show a potential rain/snow mix as the precipitation begins. Here are both models showing all potential rain/snow lines Friday evening.
 

Once the cold air moves in and changes the mix over to all snow Friday night it will remain cold enough through Saturday for all snow. The map below is the GFS model for Saturday morning showing good snow accumulation across eastern Iowa.

At this point the snow appears it will taper off late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. I will leave a chance of light snow in the 7 day forecast for Sunday to cover that chance of any lingering light snow/flurries. Here is the GFS model snowfall forecast. IF this verifies there will be a band of snow across our viewing area that could see 10 or 12 inches of snow (see map below).

We will have to wait and see how this plays out over the next few days. After this storm passes the weather gets quiet again with a partly cloudy sky Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 30s. Here is the amount of liquid precipitation from Tuesday evening to Sunday evening.

Long Range Forecast (Feb 8-14): The Climate Predication Center has Iowa with near normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

From NWS
1996: Clear skies, calm winds, and deep snow cover allowed temperatures to plummet to very cold levels on the morning of the 31st. Chariton broke its all-time record with a low temperature of -35 F. Decorah and Elkader both recorded low temperatures of -37 F which at the time was tied for the coldest temperature in Iowa since 1963. However, these readings were eclipsed just a few days later when the cold intensified even further resulting in many all-time records being broken across the region.

31 January 1937 → In January 1937 Earlington, KY (Hopkins County) recorded nearly 23 inches of rain. 31 January 1966 → The Great Blizzard of 1966 hit upstate New York and paralyzed the Buffalo region. Winds gusting to 60 mph and temperatures in the teens along with heavy blowing snow created severe blizzard conditions. Rochester received two feet of snow, and Oswego got 100 inches. 31 January 1999 → The United States experienced an all-time record for the number of tornadoes reported in January: 169. Bemis, TN had an F4 on the 17th, and F3s occurred in Clarksville and Camden, TN on the 22nd. An F3 occured in New Light, LA on the 21st.

Posted under Weather History

Posted under Earthquake

Look west this evening to see the Moon and the bright light below is the planet Jupiter.

Posted under Astronomy

Posted under Temperatures

Here is a look back at the average temperature departure from normal for Waterloo last year. The year was split. The first half of the year average temperatures were below normal while most of the second half of the year the average temperatures were above normal.

Posted under Temperatures

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Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

*Record Highs Today

Cedar Rapids: 56 (old record 55 in 1988)

Iowa City: 60 (old record 57 in 1988)

Lowden: 57 (old record 54 in 1988)

Lamoni: 62 (old record 60 in 1988)

Burlington: 60 (old record 60 in 1988)

Posted under Records, Temperatures