The cold front continues to progress east and is now into northwest Iowa.

The radar along the front is not very active which is ok because at this point the forecast was to have the active weather across Minnesota…as you can see from the recent radar.

The good thing about the update is that the risk for severe weather is no longer in the picture for the overnight hours. The slight risk area in Minnesota would only see an isolated severe storm or two…nothing widespread.

The front is still forecast to cross the state overnight. After midnight, along the front, showers/storms are still forecast to develop. Here is the latest RAP model for early Thursday morning. The model is still indicating some shower/storm development. 

Looking at the satellite imge there is not much cloud development along the front. I would expect so see some development at this time. I still believe there is a chance of showers/storms with the front but, I will lower the chances to 40%.

Here is the evening sounding from the Quad Cities showing the temperature (red line), dewpoint (green line) and wind  (barbs on the right) profile of the atmosphere. .

It still shows a slight “cap” at about 850 mb. The “cap” will prevent showers/storms from developing. I believe the strong cold front will easily weaken the “cap” and a few showers/storms will develop but it will be right on the front that this happens. I am just not very confident the rain will be as wide spread as earlier thought.

Posted under Update

Submit your weather Hot Shot by clicking here.
One photo is shown on the 5 pm newscast and one on the 10 pm newscast.

Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy with an 80% chance of showers/storms. An isolated severe storm is possible. Low: 64-67. Wind: SW/NW 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and cooler with a 20% chance of showers. High: 72-76. Wind: NW 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear and cooler. Low: 46-52. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: low 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 70s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: mid-upper 70s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: low-mid 80s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: low-mid 80s.

International Space Station (ISS) viewing this evening will deal with the potential for clouds. Clouds will be increasing ahead of the cold front forecast to cross the area tonight. Here is the viewing information. The second flyby probably doesn’t look good at this point due to clouds. We will have a better chance to see it at 9:00…again cloud pending.

Time: 9:00 pm
Duration: 3 min
Path: NNW to NE

Time: 10:37 pm
Duration: 1 min
Path: NNW to NNE

Now let’s talk about the cold front and how it will impact us. The front is located to our northwest this afternoon. The map below shows the position of the front.

There is already a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for areas north and west of Iowa…see map below.

There is a slight risk of severe weather across Iowa tonight. The main threat would be large hail and damaging wind if storms become severe.

Clouds will increase this evening as showers and storms develop northwest of Iowa. We may have isolated showers/storms before 11 pm but the best chance will be after 11 pm or midnight. The way it looks right now…everyone will see showers/storms. The storms will be ending from NW to SE as we get close to sunrise.

The cold front will be in eastern Iowa Thursday morning and be located east of the Mississippi River by 1 PM…see map below.
The heaviest rain amounts will come as the front crosses the area tonight. Most locations are still forecast to get between 0.25-0.75” of rain. There will be some locations that will exceed 1” with storms. Here is the rain forecast from this evening to Thursday evening.

This will help in our burn ban situation. Today the only county that has dropped the burn ban is Linn County. All of the shaded counties in the map below remain under a burn ban.

Click here for more details on each county. LINK!!!!!

Back to the forecast…The sky will remain mostly cloudy through Thursday with an isolated light shower possible at any time. It will be much cooler behind the front. The wind will be breezy from the NW until evening and from there it will diminish.

High pressure will move in from the northwest and clear the sky quickly during the evening hours. Surface high pressure will also keep our weather dry through the first half of next week.

The upper air pattern has a low pressure and trough over the east half of Canada and extends south into the United States. We are on the west side of the trough with a northwest flow. The result will be cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Notice the flow comes more from the west as Wednesday gets closer. Temperatures will slowly warm back to the 80s by Tuesday…maybe some locations as early as Monday.

Posted under Astronomy, Fire, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather

From NWS
1988: A very hot and dry summer continued as temperatures rose above 100 degrees across much of Iowa on August 14-18 setting daily records at numerous stations. The hottest temperatures were recorded on the 15th and 17th with high temperatures on the 15th including 104 F at Centerville, Des Moines, Muscatine, Ottumwa, and Waterloo, 105 F at Fairfield, Fort Dodge, Lamoni, Webster City, and Winterset, 106 F at Jefferson, Keosauqua, Red Oak, and Washington, and 107 F at Iowa Falls and Sigourney.

This Day in National/World Weather History …

15 August 1787 → The most extensive pre-Civil War tornado outbreak known in America struck New England from Connecticut to New Hampshire. No major towns were struck, but many farms were leveled. Orchards were swept away, and sod in pastures was ripped from the ground. A house in New Hampshire was obliterated, and the debris carried for three miles. 15 August 1946 → Parts of St. Louis, MO were deluged with more than 8 inches of rain in 24 hours.

Posted under Weather History