The cold front continues to progress east and is now into northwest Iowa.
The good thing about the update is that the risk for severe weather is no longer in the picture for the overnight hours. The slight risk area in Minnesota would only see an isolated severe storm or two…nothing widespread.
The front is still forecast to cross the state overnight. After midnight, along the front, showers/storms are still forecast to develop. Here is the latest RAP model for early Thursday morning. The model is still indicating some shower/storm development.
Looking at the satellite imge there is not much cloud development along the front. I would expect so see some development at this time. I still believe there is a chance of showers/storms with the front but, I will lower the chances to 40%.
Here is the evening sounding from the Quad Cities showing the temperature (red line), dewpoint (green line) and wind (barbs on the right) profile of the atmosphere. .
It still shows a slight “cap” at about 850 mb. The “cap” will prevent showers/storms from developing. I believe the strong cold front will easily weaken the “cap” and a few showers/storms will develop but it will be right on the front that this happens. I am just not very confident the rain will be as wide spread as earlier thought.
Posted under Update
This post was written by Schnack on August 15, 2012