If you have photos of fall colors you would like to share…send them to me at  schnack@kwwl.com. Put FALL COLORS in the subject line. I will put all of them on the blog and will use some on the evening newscasts this fall. There is a link at the top of the blog “Fall Colors” that has the latest updates on how the leaves are changing around the Midwest.

Posted under Fall Colors 2012, Photo

Submit your weather Hot Shot by clicking here.
One photo is shown on the 5 pm newscast and one on the 10 pm newscast.

Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

UPDATED at 4:05 PM

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy and not as cold. Low: 37-40. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High: 57-65. Wind: SW to N 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 29-33. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Friday: AM: Sunny. PM: Increasing clouds. High: upper 50s.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph). High: low 60s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.

The sky will be mostly clear this evening giving us a chance to see the International Space Station two times. It is expected to be very bright. Here is the information:

Time: 7:23 PM
Duration: 4 min
Path: S to ESE

Time: 8:59 PM
Duration: 1 min
Path: WSW to WSW

Tonight will not be as cold as it was this morning as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows tonight will be closer to 40 degrees.

A cold front will push through the area tomorrow dry. The front will stir up a few clouds and shift the wind to the north but that is all. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday. Here is forecast position of the cold front at 1pm.

High pressure (over the Dakotas on the map above) will quickly move across the Midwest on Friday. It will be sunny in the morning but clouds will slowly increase during the mid to late afternoon hours.

The big weather story is the storm that will impact us this weekend. A warm front will begin to push into southwest Iowa Saturday morning. The map below is for Saturday morning. North of the warm front a showers/storms will develop after midnight Friday night. Exact location of the storms is unknown at this point. The storms will continue into Saturday morning.

Here is how the GFS model looks for Saturday morning.

There might be a break in the rain/storms around midday as dry air gets pulled north ahead of the low. The low is forecast to track from Nebraska through Iowa Saturday. As the low and cold front push into eastern Iowa in the afternoon more showers/storms are expected.  Here is the GFS model for Saturday evening.

Eastern Iowa sits in a position where the environment will have ingredients needed for severe weather. The severe threat would be hail, high wind, heavy rain and possible tornado or two. Now keep in mind this is still Wednesday and we are talking about Saturday. There is still plenty of time for the conditions adjust but as I see it now this is what the most likely scenario is. The map below is from the Storm Prediction Center showing where severe weather is possible Saturday.

The map below shows what is called the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. Notice the outline for the 1 value is up into eastern Iowa Saturday evening.

We will be tracking this closely for the next few days so stay up to date on the forecast this weekend. This time of year we don’t think about severe weather and are more geared toward winter conditions. We have to get back into the severe awareness mode again for Saturday.

After the storm moves east, the wind will shift to the north at 15-25 mph and gusty with highs near 60 degrees on Sunday with lots of lingering clouds.

Monday will be dry with a couple of rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: S 5-10 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 

Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph

UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph

Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph

Posted under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports

From NWS
2009: An unusually cold autumn storm system brought snow to parts of western, northern, and central Iowa. A band of moderate snow developed during the morning hours stretching from around the Omaha metro area eastward to the Des Moines metro, roughly parallel to and just south of Interstate 80. Within this band several locations received an inch or more of snowfall including 3.0 inches at Atlantic and an amazing 6.7 inches at Underwood in Pottawattamie County. This is the second-highest snowfall amount on record in Iowa for so early in the season, bested only by the 9.0 inches recorded at Hawarden on October 9, 1970. At the Des Moines airport 1.1 inches of snow was recorded which tied the earliest date on record of measurable snow at that location and broke their record for the earliest snow of an inch or more. The snow melted very quickly at all affected locations.

This Day in National/World Weather History …

10 October 1804 → A “snow hurricane” occurred, dumping heavy snow across much of the Northeast, from a foot in the Berkshires of Connecticut to three feet in the Green Mountains in Vermont. 10 October 1925 → Weekend football games were played in deep snow across New England as up to two feet of snow fell in northern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Posted under Weather History