If you have photos of fall colors you would like to share…send them to me at  schnack@kwwl.com. Put FALL COLORS in the subject line. I will put all of them on the blog and will use some on the evening newscasts this fall. There is a link at the top of the blog “Fall Colors” that has the latest updates on how the leaves are changing around the Midwest.

Posted under Fall Colors 2012, Photo

Submit your weather Hot Shot by clicking here.
One photo is shown on the 5 pm newscast and one on the 10 pm newscast.

Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

UPDATED at 4:25 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and colder. Low: 39-41. Wind: W 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Cloudy and colder with a 60% chance of showers. High: 46-50. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Low: 39-42. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.

Friday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and windy (NW 10-20 mph). High: near 50.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: near 60.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 70.

It has been a dreary day with a cloudy sky and few light showers. Here are some rain reports this afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon have remained in the 50s behind the cold front. Here is the afternoon surface map.

The showers will taper off this evening leaving just a mostly cloudy sky for tonight. There is a chance of some of the clouds to break up for a short time late tonight but, cloud over quickly as the sun comes up on Thursday.

Tomorrow is going to be a cold day with high temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Normal high this time of year is in the low 60s. Last year (2011) on this date the high temperatures were in the mid 40s as well with a few rain showers.

The position of the low on Thursday will have a big impact on how strong the wind will be. Right now it looks like the wind will not be as strong as originally thought here in eastern Iowa. The low is forecast to be over Minnesota, Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Under the low the wind will not be as strong as it will be on the left or west side of it. The map below shows where the strongest wind will be Thursday afternoon. The area shaded in blue and tan will have the strongest wind. Also with the position of the low the wind direction will shift from the SW to the west during the afternoon.

Scattered showers will develop during the early afternoon and continue throughout the rest of the day. The freezing level in the atmosphere will be about 3,000 to 3,500 ft. Any stronger showers could possibly produce small hail.

The area of low pressure doesn’t move very much Thursday. Here is the forecast position of the low Thursday evening.

The low will slowly drift east toward Lake Michigan Friday. We will continue to have a cloudy sky with a few light showers. The wind will have switched to the NW at 10-20 mph keeping high temperatures chilly. Here is the rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Friday evening.

The weekend will be a pleasant one to be outside. It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The wind will be light and temperatures will be warmer…60s. It could be as warm as the upper 60s by Sunday.

The above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with highs remaining in the upper 60s. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday. There might be a little better chance of showers on Wednesday as a warm front is forecast to be draped across the state from west to east. I will keep the chance of rain at 20% just because that is 7 days out.

High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers
Kickoff temp: mid 40s
Wind: NW 10-15 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 

Penn State vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph

South Dakota State vs. UNI (Cedar Falls)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph

Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK)
Mostly Sunny
Kickoff Temp: mid-upper 70s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph

Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports

From NWS
1998: Rain fell across parts of Iowa on October 14-17 with the heaviest rain recorded in southeastern Iowa on the 17th when Burlington measured 4.39 inches in 24 hours. Burlington would finish the month with a total of 8.62 inches and in terms of statewide average rainfall this was the wettest October in Iowa since 1984.

1898: An early season winter storm struck western Iowa on October 16-18. Precipitation began as heavy rain on the 16th then by the morning of the 17th changed to snow that continued through the night and into the morning of the 18th as the storm moved eastward, with strong northwest winds producing near blizzard conditions with very low visibilities in some areas. Surface temperatures remained above freezing throughout the event so much of the snow melted as it fell, but at some locations the snow fell so heavily that it managed to accumulate on the ground. At Alta 6.0 inches of snow was measured and it was noted by the observer that the accumulation would probably have been doubled had so much of the snow not melted on contact. Elsewhere 2.0 inches of snow was reported at Ogden, 4.0 inches at Bedford and Humboldt, and an amazing 10.0 inches at Logan.

This Day in National/World Weather History …

17 October 1971 → Large balls of fire were observed just ahead of an F2 tornado moving down the main street of Wray, CO. This phenomena may be caused by dust particles gaining electrical charge as they are carried through the air by the wind. 17 October 1984 → Into the 18th Salt Lake City received a record-breaking 18� of lake effect snow in a 24-hour period. A million dollars damage was done. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington, UT.

Posted under Weather History