UPDATED at 4:25 PM
Tonight: Mostly cloudy and colder. Low: 39-41. Wind: W 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Cloudy and colder with a 60% chance of showers. High: 46-50. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.
Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Low: 39-42. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.
Friday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and windy (NW 10-20 mph). High: near 50.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: near 60.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 70.
It has been a dreary day with a cloudy sky and few light showers. Here are some rain reports this afternoon.
Temperatures this afternoon have remained in the 50s behind the cold front. Here is the afternoon surface map.
The showers will taper off this evening leaving just a mostly cloudy sky for tonight. There is a chance of some of the clouds to break up for a short time late tonight but, cloud over quickly as the sun comes up on Thursday.
Tomorrow is going to be a cold day with high temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Normal high this time of year is in the low 60s. Last year (2011) on this date the high temperatures were in the mid 40s as well with a few rain showers.
The position of the low on Thursday will have a big impact on how strong the wind will be. Right now it looks like the wind will not be as strong as originally thought here in eastern Iowa. The low is forecast to be over Minnesota, Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Under the low the wind will not be as strong as it will be on the left or west side of it. The map below shows where the strongest wind will be Thursday afternoon. The area shaded in blue and tan will have the strongest wind. Also with the position of the low the wind direction will shift from the SW to the west during the afternoon.
Scattered showers will develop during the early afternoon and continue throughout the rest of the day. The freezing level in the atmosphere will be about 3,000 to 3,500 ft. Any stronger showers could possibly produce small hail.
The area of low pressure doesn’t move very much Thursday. Here is the forecast position of the low Thursday evening.
The low will slowly drift east toward Lake Michigan Friday. We will continue to have a cloudy sky with a few light showers. The wind will have switched to the NW at 10-20 mph keeping high temperatures chilly. Here is the rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Friday evening.
The weekend will be a pleasant one to be outside. It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The wind will be light and temperatures will be warmer…60s. It could be as warm as the upper 60s by Sunday.
The above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with highs remaining in the upper 60s. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday. There might be a little better chance of showers on Wednesday as a warm front is forecast to be draped across the state from west to east. I will keep the chance of rain at 20% just because that is 7 days out.
High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers
Kickoff temp: mid 40s
Wind: NW 10-15 mph
College Football Forecast (Saturday)
Penn State vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph
South Dakota State vs. UNI (Cedar Falls)
Kickoff Temp: upper 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK)
Kickoff Temp: mid-upper 70s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph
Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports
This post was written by Schnack on October 17, 2012