UPDATED at 4:00 PM
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a stray shower possible. Low: 45-47. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.
Tuesday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High: 53-61. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night: Decreasing clouds and colder. Low: 29-32. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: low-mid 50s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low-mid 60s.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: near 60.
Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 60s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and breezy (W 10-20 mph). High: mid 60s.
Monday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 60s.
It has been a windy day with gusts approaching 40 mph from the southwest. The wind will diminish a little this evening but remain at 10-20 mph from the southwest overnight.
I am tracking a warm front in central Iowa that has temperatures close to 70 west of the front. A cold front that is located in South Dakota this afternoon is forecast to track southeast tonight and tomorrow. Here is the surface map this afternoon.
The best chance of rain will be north of Highway 20 where rain amounts might be near 0.50”. South of Highway 20 the rain amounts will be less than 0.10”. There will be some locations that don’t see any rain again. Here is the rain forecast from Monday evening to Tuesday evening.
Here is the forecast position of the cold front tomorrow at 1pm.
Once the front moves east, dry weather is forecast for the rest of the week. As we look at the end of the 7 day forecast there are two storms possible with decent chances of rain as of this point.
The first storm will develop over western Nebraska Friday night with a warm front south of Iowa. Showers may begin as early as Friday night with the warm front. Here is the forecast position of the low Saturday morning.
The low will track northeast and be located in southwest Minnesota by Saturday evening. The cold front will cross eastern Iowa Saturday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Saturday night. There might be enough energy in the atmosphere Saturday afternoon/evening for a few thunderstorms. Here is a map that shows the potential energy for storms.
Once that storm moves away Saturday night, Sunday will be dry before the next storm brings another chance of rain to the region Monday. The low is forecast to develop over the Kansas/Nebraska state line and track northeast across Iowa on Monday. There is also a chance for a couple of thunderstorms with this low as well. Here is the GFS model for Monday evening.
Posted under Forecast Discussion
This post was written by Schnack on October 8, 2012