UPDATED at 4:15 PM

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy and warm with a 20% chance of showers. Low: 59-63. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and warm with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: 74-78. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy and warm. Low: 62-63. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

Thursday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: lower 60s.

Friday: Mostly sunny and colder. High: mid 40s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: low-mid 40s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: low 40s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 40.

It has been a muggy afternoon with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s and air temperatures in the 60s and 70s.  There were some showers/storms this morning but it has been more of a mix of sun and clouds across eastern Iowa this afternoon. Here are some of the rain totals.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday and it will remain muggy as well. An isolated shower/storm is possible but most locations will remain dry. A cold front is forecast to cross the area Thursday morning (see map below) and bring a good chance of showers/storms. At this point the timing of the front does not favor any severe weather.

Here is the rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening.

Much colder air will move south behind the front. High temperatures Friday through early next week will be in the low-mid 40s. Low temperatures during this time will be in the 20s. Shorts and t-shirt one day and 36-48 hours later it is time for the winter coat. Don’t you love this time of year? Dry weather will return Friday and into the weekend.

The forecast confidence past the weekend is low. The models are all over the place at that time. Take a look at this example from the GFS and HPC. The red and green lines are pretty close to each other on the top three maps but they become way different on the bottom two maps. Some of the longer range models also show very different scenarios.