UPDATED at 4:10 PM

Tonight: Clouds and sprinkles this evening followed by decreasing clouds and colder temperatures. Low: 27-32. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 54-56. Wind: E/SE 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Increasing clouds with an 80% chance of showers/storms after midnight. Low: 43-46. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 100% chance of showers/storms. Severe storms are possible. High: upper 60s.

Sunday: Windy (NW 15-25 mph). AM: Clouds and showers ending. PM: Becoming mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S 10-20 mph) with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 60s.

As the cold front continues to track southeast this evening, the clouds will clear overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be colder. Lows will drop into the upper 20 and low 30s.

A large area of high pressure will move quickly from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Friday. The map below shows how large the high will be Friday morning over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The high will provide us with a mostly sunny day.

The storm that will impact us this weekend is currently over the west coast. You can see it on the water vapor satellite image below.

The first signs of the weekend storm will be an increase in cloud cover Friday night. We will see showers/storms develop after midnight north of a warm front in southwest Iowa. The map below is for Saturday morning.
The low is still forecast to be located in NW Iowa and SW Minnesota by Saturday evening. The warm front will have lifted north into Wisconsin. High temperatures will be approaching 70 degrees. The wind with the storm will be from the south gusting to 30 mph.

During the late afternoon and evening hours more showers/storms will develop and the ingredients for severe weather is still there in the computer models. The map below shows where the best chance of severe weather would occur as of the data we have today.  The severe weather threat is hail, high wind, heavy rain and a slight chance of a tornado or two. We will continue to track this storm and have more updates through the weekend.

If we don’t get severe weather that will be good…as always…but the benefit will be the rain. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will have no problem being pulled north into this system. Rain amounts could exceed 1” in some locations. Here is the rain forecast from Thursday evening to Sunday evening.

Once the storm moves east the rain will end Sunday morning with the sun coming out in the afternoon. The temperatures will be colder Sunday with highs near 60. The wind will be the strongest in the morning from the NW at 15-25 mph. The wind will gradually diminish in the afternoon.

Monday will be dry. A warm front on Tuesday may trigger a few showers to develop but it will also push the highs into the upper 60s for the afternoon. A cold front will swing through the state Wednesday with another chance of showers. Thursday will be dry with cooler highs in the low 60s.

The updated Drought Monitor was released this morning. There was not change from last week. There is still 75% of the state in extreme drought and that was the same percentage as last week.

High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: SE 10-15 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 

Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph

UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph

Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 100% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph

Posted under Drought, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports