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This post was written by Schnack on November 9, 2012
UPDATED at 4:35 PM
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low: 47-52. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and windy with a 20% chance of showers/storms toward evening. High: 68-72. Wind: S 15-30 mph and gusty.
Saturday Night: Cloudy and windy with an 80% chance of rain. Low: 50-57. Wind: SW 15-30 mph
Sunday: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of rain. High: 50s…falling in the afternoon into the 40s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, colder and breezy (W 10-20 mph). High: low-mid 30s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: near 40.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 40s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: mid-upper 40s.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 40s.
A warm front will lift north across Iowa with warm weather and a slight chance of showers. The front will be north of Iowa during the day and south of it the temperatures will be warm and it will be windy. Here is the position of the front at noon Saturday.
Record highs are possible tomorrow with forecast highs near 70. Here are the records in jeopardy:
Here are the record highs for Saturday, November 10:
Waterloo: 69 in 2010
Dubuque: 69 in 1949
Cedar Rapids: 70 in 1949
Iowa City: 70 in 1915
Along the cold front to our west there is a slight chance of severe weather during the afternoon and evening (see map below). There is no risk of severe weather in eastern Iowa. The timing of the front as it crosses our area does not favor severe weather.
As a Meteorologist, I like to see computer models with similar results. It helps in making the forecast. The weekend rain has been handled pretty well by the long range models. Now the short term models are picking up the rain for the same time frame as well. Here are some of the models for noon Sunday.
NAM/ WSI RPM Models
ECMWF/GFS Models
HPC
Not much has changed from the forecast yesterday. Most if not all of Saturday will be dry. There is a slight chance of an evening shower/storm. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday. After the record/near record highs Saturday the cold front will cross the area and the temperatures will DROP. Temperatures Sunday morning will be in the 50s and drop into the 40s with rain likely most of the day. Basically after the highs in the 60s on Saturday the temperatures will continue to fall until the lows on Monday morning. Here is an example of the temperature drop for Waterloo.
The wind will also make it feel colder with gusts to 30 mph from the northwest on Sunday. The rain will taper off Sunday evening right before the temperatures drop below freezing. There is a slight chance for a few flurries Sunday night as the rain moves out and the cold air moves in.
Here is the rain forecast from Saturday evening to Sunday evening.
Next week will be dry with highs warming back into the 40s.
College Football Forecast (Saturday)
Purdue vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Partly to mostly cloudy and windy.
Kickoff Temp: low 60s
UNI vs. South Dakota (Vermillion, SD)
Partly cloudy.
Kickoff Temp: low 60s
Iowa State vs. Texas (Austin, TX)
Mostly cloudy.
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Posted under Uncategorized
This post was written by Schnack on November 9, 2012
From NWS
1977: A significant early season blizzard struck western and northwestern Iowa. Precipitation initially began as rain on November 8th then changed to freezing rain and sleet and finally to snow on the 9th. Up to 6 inches of snow fell in northwestern Iowa and combined with wind gusts as high as 65 mph to make travel all but impossible. More than 200 people were stranded on Interstate 29 between Sioux City and Onawa and the high winds blew down trees and radio towers across the area.
1975: A rare November tornado outbreak occurred in eastern and northeastern Iowa with at least nine tornadoes touching down. One storm produced several tornadoes intermittently along a path from near Traer in Tama County to the southeastern corner of Bremer County. Extensive damage was done to about 20 farms and numerous homes were destroyed in Evansdale, Dewar, and Dunkerton as the storm narrowly missed Waterloo. Another tornado struck areas from Toronto to near Maquoketa. In total 7 people were injured but thankfully there were no fatalities.
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Posted under Weather History
This post was written by Schnack on November 9, 2012
