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This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2013
UPDATED at 4:20 PM
Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 37-43. Wind: NE 5-15 mph.
Wednesday: Cloudy with at 90% chance of rain and isolated storms. High: 45-55. Wind: E 10-20 mph.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy with 90% chance of rain and isolated storms. Heavy downpours are likely. Low: 38-49. Wind: NE 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Cloudy 80% chance of rain. High: upper 40s.
Friday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of light rain/snow. High: low 40s.
Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High: near 50.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: mid 50s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: mid 50s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: low 50s.
It was nice to see the sun again today and this time for more than just a few hours. Now if temperatures would just be a little warmer. I guess we are going to have to wait on that. Here is a visible satellite image from noon today showing where the sunshine was.
The current position of the low is over the 4 corners region of the Rockies. It is forecast to move northeast cross southeast Iowa Wednesday night. The map below shows the WPC forecast position of the low Wednesday evening.
Rain will begin early Wednesday morning and by the afternoon isolated storms are possible. Wednesday evening through Thursday morning locally heavy downpours are likely. The rain will become scattered and lighter in the afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has the northern extent of the slight risk area in southeast Iowa (see map below). At this point I do not see a real risk of any severe weather. The cloud cover all day and showers and isolated storms will keep the stable enough to limit the severe weather IF any. And even IF a storm becomes severe Wednesday afternoon it would probably be marginal. This is something we will continue to track.
As mentioned previously, heavy downpours are expected and this will be a prolonged period of rain (36-48 hours). Many locations have a good chance of 1-3”+ from this storm. Here is the rain forecast from Tuesday evening to Thursday evening showing the widespread heavy rain.
The ground is pretty wet in some locations so with an additional 1-3”+ the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for the counties shaded in green in the map blow. The watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. The heaviest of the 1-3”+ of rain will fall Wednesday afternoon to about midday Thursday.
Now as the low moves away colder air will move south and the light rain Thursday night will mix and change over to light snow and continue into Friday before tapering off. If any snow were to accumulate it would be minor. The map below shows the chance of one inch (1”) of snow between Thursday evening and Friday evening.
High pressure gives us a dry Saturday, but just for one day. We are also tracking the next chance of rain for Sunday through Tuesday. The low and cold front will be coming from the northwest. The rain amounts appear to be much lower than the Wednesday/Thursday storm.
Posted under Forecast Discussion
1967: A strong cold front swept across Iowa late on April 16th producing severe thunderstorms and was followed by extremely strong winds on the 17th. On the evening of the 16th a destructive tornado produced F3 damage on a path through portions of Keosauqua and Stockport resulting in two fatalities, 16 injuries, and the destruction or severe damaging of dozens of homes and businesses. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter was also reported in Davis, Van Buren, and Lee counties. The following day very strong winds caused widespread damage and created the worst dust storms seen in Iowa since the 1930s.
|This Day in National/World Weather History …|
Posted under Weather History