Weather Hot Shot on Tue. April 16

Sundogs in Indepence taken by Joey Meister

Sundogs in Indepence taken by Joey Meister

 

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One photo is shown on the 5 pm newscast and one on the 10 pm newscast

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Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2013

Heavy Rain Wednesday/Thursday


UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 37-43. Wind: NE 5-15 mph.

Wednesday: Cloudy with at 90% chance of rain and isolated storms. High: 45-55. Wind: E 10-20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with 90% chance of rain and isolated storms. Heavy downpours are likely. Low: 38-49. Wind: NE 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Cloudy 80% chance of rain. High: upper 40s.

Friday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of light rain/snow. High: low 40s.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High: near 50.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: mid 50s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: mid 50s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: low 50s.

It was nice to see the sun again today and this time for more than just a few hours. Now if temperatures would just be a little warmer. I guess we are going to have to wait on that. Here is a visible satellite image from noon today showing where the sunshine was.

Apr 16 Sat
We continue to track a low pressure system forecast to bring rain to eastern Iowa Wednesday and Thursday before it could change to light snow Thursday night.

The current position of the low is over the 4 corners region of the Rockies. It is forecast to move northeast cross southeast Iowa Wednesday night. The map below shows the WPC forecast position of the low Wednesday evening.

Apr 16 Wed Eve Sfc Map
Rain will begin early Wednesday morning and by the afternoon isolated storms are possible. Wednesday evening through Thursday morning locally heavy downpours are likely. The rain will become scattered and lighter in the afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has the northern extent of the slight risk area in southeast Iowa (see map below). At this point I do not see a real risk of any severe weather. The cloud cover all day and showers and isolated storms will keep the stable enough to limit the severe weather IF any. And even IF a storm becomes severe Wednesday afternoon it would probably be marginal. This is something we will continue to track.

Apr 16 Svr WX
As mentioned previously, heavy downpours are expected and this will be a prolonged period of rain (36-48 hours). Many locations have a good chance of 1-3”+ from this storm. Here is the rain forecast from Tuesday evening to Thursday evening showing the widespread heavy rain.

Apr 16 QPF

The ground is pretty wet in some locations so with an additional 1-3”+ the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for the counties shaded in green in the map blow. The watch is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. The heaviest of the 1-3”+ of rain will fall Wednesday afternoon to about midday Thursday.

Blog Graphic 1
Now as the low moves away colder air will move south and the light rain Thursday night will mix and change over to light snow and continue into Friday before tapering off. If any snow were to accumulate it would be minor. The map below shows the chance of one inch (1”) of snow between Thursday evening and Friday evening.

Apr 16 Snow Thu to Fri Eve
High pressure gives us a dry Saturday, but just for one day. We are also tracking the next chance of rain for Sunday through Tuesday. The low and cold front will be coming from the northwest. The rain amounts appear to be much lower than the Wednesday/Thursday storm.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2013

Sunshine and Clouds

Lots of sunshine across parts of eastern Iowa at noon. Clouds are moving east/northeast.

Apr 16 Sat

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2013

April 16

TodayinWeatherHistoryFrom NWS
1967
: A strong cold front swept across Iowa late on April 16th producing severe thunderstorms and was followed by extremely strong winds on the 17th. On the evening of the 16th a destructive tornado produced F3 damage on a path through portions of Keosauqua and Stockport resulting in two fatalities, 16 injuries, and the destruction or severe damaging of dozens of homes and businesses. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter was also reported in Davis, Van Buren, and Lee counties. The following day very strong winds caused widespread damage and created the worst dust storms seen in Iowa since the 1930s.

This Day in National/World Weather History …
 16 April 1879 → An F3 tornado struck a turpentine plantation on the east side of Walterboro, SC. About 45,000 boxes of turpentine, as well as 20,000 trees, were destroyed.
 16 April 1990 → Along a stationary front, thunderstorms were producing large hail and damaging winds across Oklahoma. Baseball size hail fell south of Carney and winds gusted up to 92 mph at the Will Rogers Airport.
 16 April 1998 → An F3 tornado hit downtown Nashville, TN. One person was killed and 60 were injured. The storm was one of 23 tornadoes to hit Tennessee on that date, including an F5 in Lawrence County that leveled brick homes. The tornado was on the ground for over 60 miles. 3 people were killed in Wayne County, TN.
 16 April 2011 → North Carolina was struck by its worst tornado outbreak in 27 years, including an EF3 that tore directly through the state capital of Raleigh.
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Posted under Weather History

This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2013