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This post was written by Schnack on June 10, 2013
UPDATED at 4:50 PM
Tonight: Mostly clear with some fog possible late. Low: 58-63. Wind: SW 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, warmer and humid. High: 83-88. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. Low: 65-72.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with at 50% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.
I probably don’t need to tell you this, but our weather has been cooler than normal this spring and we have had a lot of rain. Just what are the facts to back that up? At Waterloo, the total amount of precipitation (rain and melted snow) in 2013 through June 9 has added up to 24.09”. All of last year (2012) Waterloo had 24.07”. So that means we have had more precipitation in the first 5 months than we had all of last year. Keep in mind we were in a drought last year. No drought this year. The yearly normal for Waterloo is 34.56”. Here are some numbers for other towns.
Ok now let’s take a look at the forecast. Is there more rain on the way? Yes, but not until Tuesday night. The clouds have been clearing this afternoon making for a very nice afternoon and evening. Here is the visible satellite this afternoon.
A warm front will begin to lift north across Missouri in the next 36 hours. South of the warm front will be hot (90s) Tuesday. North of the front, in Iowa, highs will be in the 80s. Tuesday will start out sunny and during the afternoon a few clouds will develop. Tuesday evening, showers/storms are forecast to develop across South Dakota. They will track southeast…north of the warm front lifting north. As the storms move across eastern Iowa Tuesday night some storms may be severe with the main threat of damaging wind and hail. Heavy downpours are forecast with any of the storms. The maps below show more information about the possible storms Tuesday night.
The storms are forecast to hang around into the Wednesday morning. The afternoon shower/storm chances are highly dependent on where the Tuesday night storms were and where they traveled across Iowa. That is something we will have a better handle on Tuesday.
Good news for Thursday and Friday…high pressure will keep our sky dry both days. There is an area of low pressure forecast to bring showers/storms back to the area Saturday and Sunday.
It looks like this pattern of chances of showers/storms every other couple of days may continue through the end of June. A ridge of heat will build north from June 18-24. See the map with above normal temperatures below.
Along the northern edge of the above normal temperatures will be the areas that will have regular chances of showers/storms every other couple of days. That is the reason for above normal precipitation across Iowa and areas to the north.
Posted under Forecast Discussion
2008: Record flooding continued in northeastern Iowa with all-time record crests occurring on the West Fork Cedar River at Finchford, the Cedar River at Janesville, and the Shell Rock River at Shell Rock where the flow rate was nearly double the previous record. The three rivers merge shortly after passing these locations, so all three record crests arrived at about the same time sending an incredible volume of water down the Cedar River toward Waterloo and Cedar Rapids.
1933: Very hot weather sent the temperature soaring up to 109 F at Denison, setting the all-time state record for June. Other reported high temperatures included 107 F at Sioux City, 106 F at Guthrie Center and Pocahontas, 105 F at Carroll, and 102 F at Des Moines where the month would finish as the warmest June on record with an average temperature of 79.8 F.
1928: A very late freeze occurred at Decorah where the low temperature was 32 F. Other lows that morning included 34 F at Mason City, 36 F at Rock Rapids, and 38 F at Boone and Cedar Rapids. Frost was reported at scattered locations around the state.
1913: A strong cold front moved across Iowa on June 7th and ushered in several days and nights of unseasonably cool weather. Low temperatures on the morning of the 10th included 35 F at Alton, Earlham, Elkader, Fayette, and Washta and 33 F at Mason City. Frost was reported at several locations around the state but was light enough and of short enough duration that damage to crops and vegetation was minimal.
1905: Thunderstorms produced torrential rainfall across portions of southeastern Iowa on the night of June 9-10. The heaviest rain fell in Van Buren County where Stockport measured 10.63 inches, Keosauqua 11.23 inches, and Bonaparte 12.10 inches with about 11 inches of that total falling in less than eight hours. At least 89 county bridges were swept away in the ensuing flooding with widespread significant crop damage and soil erosion occurring throughout the area. One man was killed while trying to rescue his cattle during a flash flood.
1902: Severe thunderstorms struck areas of central and southeastern Iowa during the afternoon and evening hours. Near and just south of Marshalltown in Timber Creek Township observers reported that “hailstones as large as a man’s fist fell, covering the ground to the depth of eight inches. The stones went through the roofs of houses. Chickens and stock were killed, bark stripped from trees, nothing green left and the farmers completely ruined.” Significant straight line wind damage was reported further southeast at Ottumwa, Sigourney, and Mount Pleasant as the evening progressed. At Sigourney the canvas of a large circus tent was blown off and hundreds of people were left exposed to the elements. Between 50 and 60 people were “struck by poles and caught under the heavy canvas” with several seriously injured. At Mount Pleasant significant damage was done to the Henry County fairgrounds and there were widespread reports of houses unroofed, outbuildings flattened, and trees and telegraph and electric lines brought down across the area.
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Posted under Weather History