UPDATED at 4:40 PM
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers/storms. Low: 61-65. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers/storms. High: 75-80. Wind: SW 5-10 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with showers/storms ending. Low: 62-66. Wind: SW 5-10 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: low 80s.
Monday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: mid-upper 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 70s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: near 80.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.
On this Flag Day we have had a lot of cloud cover around. A few showers were coming from the clouds but nothing widespread. The radar this afternoon shows a cluster of showers in NW Missouri tracking southeast. There is another cluster of thunderstorms in western Iowa and they are also tracking southeast.
The current surface map shows a warm front in eastern Nebraska with a cold front not too far west of that. Showers/storms are forecast to develop along the cold front and track northeast across Nebraska and into Iowa tonight. The low level jet feeding the storms in western Iowa this afternoon will strengthen and be able to feed the overnight storms. See charts below…
The heavy downpours tonight could exceed 2” in some locations. The Flash Flood Guidance shows northern half of Iowa cannot handle around 2” of rain in a 3 hour period. If that amount of rain feel, flash flooding would be likely and that is the reason the NWS has a Flash Flood Watch in effect through Saturday across north central and northeast Iowa. See charts below…
There is a cold front forecast to push through eastern Iowa Saturday afternoon. The cold front is forecast to trigger showers/storms in the afternoon. Some storms might be severe during the late afternoon and evening. Here is the forecast position of the cold front Saturday Evening.
There is no risk of severe weather (large hail/high wind/tornado) Friday night. There is a risk of high wind/large hail with a few storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The best chance of a severe storm would be along and south of Highway 20. See charts below…
There is a slight chance of a shower/storm Monday, but as it looks right now most of the day would be dry. High pressure is still forecast to move across the Midwest during the middle of next week. Dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday. A warm front approaches Iowa from the southwest Friday with a chance of showers/storms.
Posted under Forecast Discussion
This post was written by Schnack on June 14, 2013