From NASA:
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave.
Click here for the rest of the story.

Posted under Long Range Outlook, NASA

Part of the forecast discussion from NWS in the Quad Cities:

STRENGTHENING EL NINO FULLY IN CONTROL NOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA… AND WILL REMAIN SO THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WINTER. THIS MEANS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DVN CWA. ANY COLD AIR INTRUSIONS ARE USUALLY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO.

Posted under Long Range Outlook, NOAA, Winter Weather

From: NOAA
El Niño in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States, according to the 2009 Winter Outlook released today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Such seasonal outlooks are part of NOAA’s suite of climate services.

“We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period,” says Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. “Warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn change the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S.”
Click here for more details to the story.

Posted under Long Range Outlook, NOAA, Winter Weather

What happened to summer? Where is all the complaining about how hot and humid it is? Did I sleep through summer? I can tell you one thing…I am NOT ready for winter. It is always a hard season to get comfortable with. To go outside you have to prepare an extra 10 minutes to get the sweatshirt on…the winter coat…the gloves…the scarf…the hat…the boots…you have to shovel the sidewalk to get the driveway and than you can finally leave. I am tired just typing all of that. In the spring and summer shorts and shirt are all you need. Oh yeah can’t for get those heating bills. I am sure we could all do with lower ones of those. I know there are some of you out there that love winter and make a living because what winter brings us. There are times winter is pretty. This is why we live in this part of the country…because we get to enjoy ALL the wonderful seasons. Ok now that is out of the way on to the weather. The Farmers’ Almanac came out with their forecast for the winter.

Ok now for the Climate Prediction Center. They have not issued their “Winter Forecast” yet but here is the outlook for Dec/Jan/Feb:

Here is some information to chew on. Since El Nino is forecast to get stronger I thought I would show you what happened with the temperature and precipitation during El Nino years. You can click on the images to make them larger. The temperature is on the left and the preicpitation is on the right.

 
Here is a sign of the next season arriving. Some of the leaves are changing in southwest Minnesota.

Posted under Long Range Outlook

NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months.  

NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10.  

“Advanced climate science allows us to alert industries, governments and emergency managers about the weather conditions El Niño may bring so these can be factored into decision-making and ultimately protect life, property and the economy,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. 

El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative. On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires.  

El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia.  

An El Niño event may significantly diminish ocean productivity off the west coast by limiting weather patterns that cause upwelling, or nutrient circulation in the ocean.  These nutrients are the foundation of a vibrant marine food web and could negatively impact food sources for several types of birds, fish and marine mammals.  

In its monthly El Niño diagnostics discussion today, scientists with the NOAA National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. The most recent El Niño occurred in 2006.

El Niño includes weaker trade winds, increased rainfall over the central tropical Pacific, and decreased rainfall in Indonesia. These vast rainfall patterns in the tropics are responsible for many of El Niño’s global effects on weather patterns.  

NOAA will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving situation in the tropical Pacific, and will provide more detailed information on possible Atlantic hurricane impacts in its updated Seasonal Hurricane Outlook scheduled for release on August 6, 2009.

Posted under Climate, Long Range Outlook, NOAA

It is much warmer this morning due to a west wind, a passage of a warm front and clouds overhead. Yesterday we were down below zero but, today temperatures are in the 20s.
 Temperature Change at 5 AM

Today: Temperatures will remain steady through the morning while during the afternoon temperatures will fall a few degrees. The wind today from the W/NW at 10-20 mph and gusts to near 25 mph will keep wind chill in the single digits and teens all day.
Tonight: The sky will slowly clear as temperatures fall to near zero by morning.
Tomorrow: It will remain cold with highs only warming into the teens despite plenty of sunshine. The wind will be from the NW shifting to the SW at 5-10 mph.
Saturday: It is going to be a warmer day after a warm front pushes through Iowa Friday night. Highs will be in the mid 30s with plenty of sunshine.
Sunday: More clouds are forecast for Sunday as highs warm to near 30 degrees.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 day (Feb. 4-11) forecasts warmer temperatures but more active weather. Only time will tell.

Posted under Forecast Discussion, Long Range Outlook

In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.

With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season (climate patterns that give forecasters clues about potential weather events months in advance), predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather. For more details click here.

Refresh your memory and click here to see what the forecast was for 2007-2008 winter. 

Posted under Long Range Outlook, NOAA, Winter Weather

A look back at October weather shows Iowa had near average temperatures and above average precipitation. There are some numbers from around the country. The average October temperature of 54.5 degrees F was 0.3 degree F below the 20th Century average, based on preliminary data. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in October averaged 2.10 inches, which is 0.10 inch below the 1901-2000 average. Click here to see the precipitation numbers.

Thanks for checking out the blog. You can post any comments or questions below or in the chat box to the left of the blog. Have a great day. 

Posted under Long Range Outlook

A common question this fall is the following: What is the winter going to be like? The official NOAA winter forecast will be issued on Nov. 15. In the mean time here is what The Old Farmer’s Almanac has. All the information below is from The Old Farmer’s Almanac.  It is some interesting reading and will give you something to talk about at the watercooler.

The following are all considered traditional signs of a severe winter ahead:

• Geese fly south at a high altitude.
• Oak trees bear many acorns.
• Chipmunks are abundant.
• Lakes and rivers freeze later than usual.
• Onions grow thicker skins than usual.
• Squirrels are gathering a large supply of nuts.
• Woodpeckers appear early.
• Lots of berries.
• Corn husks are thicker and stronger.

Winter temperatures will be slightly below normal, on average, in the north and above normal in the south. Expect record cold in the first half of December, with other cold periods in early and mid-January and mid-February. Snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the snowiest periods in early December, early January, early February, and early March.

April and May will be warmer and drier than normal, with the season’s first hot spell in early to mid-May.

Summer will be warmer and drier than normal, on average, despite a relatively cool August. The hottest periods will be in early June, much of July, and mid- to late August.

September and October will have below-normal rainfall and near-normal temperatures.

Detailed Forecast for the Next Two Months

Thanks for checking out the blog. You can post any comments or questions below or in the chat box to the left of the blog. Have a great day.

Posted under Long Range Outlook

We ended the month of October warm and the warmth has continued into the first few days of November. The question is how long will that last? Well the answer may be in the 7 day forecast (it is located on the right side of the blog). By the end of the week high temperatures will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows this morning were in the 50s. A big change is on the way this week as a storm moves across the middle of the country. Now that we started a new month I thought I would take a look at what you might expect. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has forecast November to have near average temperatures and above average precipitation…for Iowa. The outlook for November, December and January combined is a bit different. Temperatures are expected to be above average and precipitation to be near average…for Iowa. The graphics are posted below.

November temperature outlook (left) and precipitation outlook (right)

November/December/January temperature outlook (left) and precipitation outlook (right)

The official Winter 2008-2009 outlook from NOAA will be out around the 15th of this month. I will put it here when it is posted.

Refresh your memory and click here to see what the forecast was for 2007-2008 winter. 

Thanks for checking out the blog. You can post any comments or questions below or in the chat box to the left of the blog. Have a great day.

Posted under Long Range Outlook