The upper level/surface low pressure is finally moving north east. There have been a few breaks in the cloud cover today to see blue sky. Even though it was only for a few minutes…it was nice to see. A little sunshine and no rain lets the temperatures warm a little more. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the mid-upper 40s.  The wind will remain light. A light wind is always important this time of year because a gusty wind ALWAYS makes it feel colder.

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This slow moving low is not going give up soon. Clouds will continue through the night and even into Friday. I think late Friday we will start to see some clearing. The sunshine for Saturday will warm temperatures into the low 50s before a big cool down for the middle of next week. Below is an easy way at looking at the GFS model for the next few days. Notice along the top of the image…not much sunshine.

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Thanksgiving Eve

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Current Surface Map

The upper level low has slowly been drifting east and now on top of the surface low. When the upper low is directly above the surface low we call this vertically stacked. The low has been cut off from the main jet stream so the low has been pretty stationary.

Upper Level Low...Red Line is Forecast Path

There is an upper level low over southern California and this will move east and act as a “kicker” and help push this low along. But in the mean time we will have clouds and a few light showers as the low tracks north over Iowa and than turns northeast towards the Great Lakes. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid 40s.  

Now lets take a look at the next chance of rain…”storm 2″: Low pressure is forecast to develop Sunday night and bring a chance of rain Sunday night through Tuesday morning. It might be cold enough Monday night and Tuesday morning a few snow showers  may be possible. This is something we will be tracking for the next few days. Below is the GFS model for Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

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The low that was sitting over Southern Missouri yesterday is still in Southern Missouri today. The upper level low that was over Kansas yesterday is now over Southern Missouri as well.  This means that there is very little movement to the low.  It will wobble around Missouri for a bit and throw more showers into the southern half of Iowa today. Eventually the system will track slowly northward and bring a few showers to the northern counties in Eastern Iowa.

This is what we have received over the last 48 hours (as of 9:15 this morning):

Many areas in Washington and Iowa counties are reporting rainfall over an inch

And this is what we can expect over through 9 tomorrow evening:

Most of the computer models I looked at this morning agree pretty closely with this computer model.

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The above images show where the clouds are (above left) and where the rain is (above right). The northern part of Iowa has been dealing with sunshine most of today while the southern counties have been dealing with clouds and rain. This trend will continue through tonight. Showers will only make it as far north as Highway 20 tonight. Clouds will thicken in the northern counties. I will have the complete Storm Track 7 Forecast tonight at 5, 6, and 10.

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Low pressure will meander around Missouri for a couple of days.

GFS computer model for Noon today.

GFS computer model for Noon Tuesday. It hasn't moved too much from Monday.

This will lead to heavy rainfall over portions of Eastern Iowa and just cloudy skies over others. Rainfall amounts will be from a few sprinkles in the far north to over two inches possible south of Washington.

Estimated rainfall today through 8 PM Tuesday.

This low is cut off from the steering winds and will be difficult to predict exactly, but there will be a lot of moisture with it. This will lead to some flooding problems in Southern Iowa, Northern Missouri and Central Illinois.  Heavy snowfall is expected over portions of Southwestern Iowa.  Those counties could receive two to four inches of snow, mainly on the grassy areas.  Eastern Iowa may see a few snowflakes mixing in during the nighttime hours, but no snow accumulation is expected.  The system will shift northward on Wednesday and still keep a few showers in the area through Thursday.

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We are still tracking a potential area of low pressure to develop in the middle of the country. The latest GFS computer model for Tuesday afternoon next week shows a battle between the high over the Great Lakes and the low over the AK/MO state line. There will be a gusty wind on Tuesday due to the big change in pressure over short distance. High pressure to the north and east, may suppress the rain to the southern counties if it does make it into the state. The last few computer model runs have been leaning more toward the low staying farther south. This would mean little or no rain for the area. We will continue to track this for you and let you know how the computer model guidance changes or remains consistent.

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The current map this evening shows a front to our northwest. This front will slowly move east tonight and tomorrow. We will remain east of the front all day Friday with a gusty south wind (15-25 mph) and high temperatures near 60 degrees. The front will cross eastern Iowa Saturday with a slight chance of a few light showers. High temperatures behind the front will cool to the low 50s for the weekend.

The 500 mb map above shows a cut-off low developing in the middle of the country by Tuesday. The exact position of this low is still yet to be determined. As this time frame gets closer other computer models will have an agreement (I hope) on where the low will be located. The main jet stream is up north so that means the cut-off low will move slow. In that case it means clouds for a few days and right now I have thrown 20% rain chances in the forecast for Mon-Wed.

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There are still some clouds hanging over parts of eastern Iowa with many locations also with a clear sky. If you have clouds over you…don’t worry you will see sunshine as the clouds continue to move east. High pressure to our north is keeing the rain just far enough away from us to our southeast. The rain is moving east with the clouds.

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