Dry Friday then a Wet Weekend

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 36-39. Wind: SW 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 67-70. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 44-47. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 70% chance of showers/storms. High: near 70.

Sunday: Cloudy and windy (N 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of rain. High: low 50s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 40s.  

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 40s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 50.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: low 50s.   

Weather Extra Bar

ISS

We get another chance to see the International Space Station (ISS) this evening at 8:27 PM for 4 minutes it will travel from NW to NE.

Tonight…The wind will diminish as the sun sets this evening. A light wind is expected for most of the night under a mostly clear sky.

Friday/Friday Night…A beautiful spring day is ahead. The sun will be shinning with a lighter wind compared to the last two days. Afternoon highs will get close to 70 degrees again. Friday night clouds will increase late with mild temperatures.

Saturday/Sunday…One work could sum up the weekend WET. Showers/storms are likely Saturday and Saturday night with mainly just rain Sunday. The threat for any severe storms at this time is very low. Saturday will be the warmer of the two days ahead of the front. Sunday the wind increases from the NW pulling colder air south. The rain will continue Sunday night and taper off late as the sun comes up Monday. Late Sunday night it might be cold enough for a few snow showers before the precipitation tapers off. I described the weekend as wet because there is a potential for 2”+ for all of eastern Iowa combining Saturday/Sunday rain.

Apr 10 QPF

Make sure you gutters are cleaned out so that the water can flow through them properly and not cause any water issues around your home. A good day to do that would be Friday.

The rain is also a good thing for most of the state since the latest Drought Monitor information was released this morning.

Apr 10 Drought

Most of Iowa is dealing with pretty dry condition. So dry, we had an elevated fire risk again today with the very dry atmosphere and windy conditions.

Monday/Tuesday…These will be the coolest two days of the next seven. A northwest wind will keep the temperatures from reaching our normal high close to 60. Dry conditions are forecast.

Wednesday/Thursday…Temperatures warm a little as a chance for some showers is included in the forecast.

Long Range Outlook…The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is leaning toward colder than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation from April 18-24.

Apr 10 Long Range TempPrecip

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on April 10, 2014

A Rainy Night then Windy Wednesday

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Cloudy with scattered light rain. A light snow shower or flurries are possible late. No accumulation expected. Low: 28-34. Wind: E to NE 10-20 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-30 mph) with a light snow shower or flurries in the morning. High: 37-43. Wind: NW 15-30 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 21-29. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: near 50.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. High: near 50.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy (NW 10-20 mph). High: near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 30s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain/snow. High: mid 30s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: low 30s.

Weather Extra Bar

There is wide range in temperatures across eastern Iowa this afternoon. Northern counties have low 40s and a cloudy sky while the southern counties have some sunshine and mid 50s. The current surface map shows an area of low pressure located in eastern Kansas.

Mar 18 Current Map

Tonight… The low is forecast to track northeast across southeast Iowa tonight and be located in southern Wisconsin by Wednesday morning. As the low moves closer, scattered rain showers are expected to break out. Late tonight and early Wednesday morning, temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing roughly from Waterloo north and west. This is the area that might see a few snow showers or flurries. Here is the forecast map for Wednesday morning.

Mar 18 Wed AM Sfc Map

Wednesday/Wednesday Night… Light rain and some light snow Wednesday morning will taper off by noon at the latest. There is a chance of minor snow accumulation (0.5” or less) from near Charles City to Decorah. Here is the rain potential from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening.

Mar 18 QPF

The wind will be strong through most of the day gusting at times to 35 mph from the northwest. The wind will diminish Wednesday evening as the low continues to move away from Iowa. The clouds will slowly clear Wednesday night as temperatures fall into the 20s.

Thursday… Spring (vernal equinox) officially begins at 11:57 AM CDT. The normal high for this date is in the upper 40s and that is the forecast as well. Sunshine and a lighter wind will help it feel a bit more like spring.

Friday… We are tracking a weak area of low pressure forecast to bring a chance of light rain to the area Friday.

Saturday/Sunday… Dry weather is expected with colder temperatures and is just gets a bit colder as the new week starts.

Monday/Tuesday… Low pressure brings us a chance of light rain/snow Monday with dry weather Tuesday. As normal highs warm increase the actual highs temperatures decrease.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on March 18, 2014

Tracking Rain/Snow for Tuesday

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 33-35. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy with an 80% chance of rain/snow. High: 35-42. Wind: N 10-20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Light snow ends. Snow accumulation: trace to 2”. Low: 20-25. Wind: N 15-25 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy and windy (N 15-25 mph). High: near 30.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 40s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 40s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain/snow: High: mid 30s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 30s.

Weather Extra Bar

It has been a very nice late winter day. Spring (Vernal Equinox) officially begins March 20. Check out the 4 pm temperatures across Iowa.

Mar 10 4 PM Temps

At noon today, the visible satellite image showed where the snow was on the ground impacting the temperatures (northeast Iowa).

Mar 10 Snow vs no snow

So far this afternoon the rivers have remained in check with no major problems. There have been some significant rises on streams with localized flooding due to the snow melt today. The Iowa River at Marengo has been flooding a bit this afternoon. Click here for the latest flood update.

The sky will become mostly cloudy tonight as low pressure tracks closer to Iowa. A light wintry mix will develop in the morning and continue into the afternoon. It will transition to light snow during evening as temperatures begin to drop and the wind increases from the north. Light snow will taper off Tuesday night.

Mar 10 Tue Rain Snow

Wednesday is going to be much colder with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and a gusty north wind. Not to worry, temperatures rebound back to the 40s Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a slight chance of a light rain/snow shower Sunday as temperatures drop back to the 30s.

A look back on this day in weather history, a snow record was broken. The most snow from one storm fell from March 10-14, 1951. It is a state record.

Mar 10 Record Snow

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on March 10, 2014

Updated Snow Forecast as of 9:30 PM

The heaviest of band of snow has been across southern Minnesota and crossing the state line into Iowa this evening. Snow reports have ranged from 1-4″…. the heaviest in Minnesota. The most unstable part of the atmosphere is across southern MN where the snow is falling at 1″ per hour. The forecast is for it to come south a bit overnight. The snow extends back into South Dakota.

Mar 4 MW Radar

The southern edge of the heavier snow will come close again to Waterloo and Dubuque (along Highway 20). There is a lot of uncertainty about how much snow makes it as far south as roughly Highway 20. I will keep the narrow band of 1-3″ on the southern edge of heavier band circled above. Here is the latest WSI RPM snow forecast.

Mar 4 RPM

Here is the graphic I will show during the 10 pm news (see below).  There is going to be such a sharp cutoff. I could possibly narrow the 1-3″ snow band a bit more. I am going to leave it this way for the show. Mar 4 Updated Snow Forecast

 

We will see how this plays out. I will post snow totals here on the blog tomorrow morning.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on March 4, 2014

More Snow and More Cold

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Snow ending by midnight with a mostly cloudy sky overnight. Low: -7 to 1. Wind: W/NW 5-10 mph.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a 90% chance of snow in the afternoon. High: 5-12. Wind: Variable 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a 90% chance of snow. Low: -1 to 8. Wind: NE 10-15 mph.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy (NE 10-20 mph) with a 70% chance of snow. High: near 10.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: near 5.

Friday: Partly cloudy and windy (S 10-20 mph). High: mid teens.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy (SW to NW 15-25 mph). High: near 30.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of snow. High: near 5.

Monday: Partly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph). High: near 0.

Weather Extra Bar

Light snow continues to push across Iowa this afternoon making roads slick. Please use caution if you are traveling tonight. Click here for the latest road conditions. The snow tapers off by midnight while the sky remains cloudy overnight. Here is the radar at 4:10 pm showing where the snow was falling.

Dec 30 Radar 410

Another round of snow will develop Tuesday afternoon and continue through the night before tapering off early Wednesday afternoon. Here is the current WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for this time period.

Dec 30 Advisory

Most of eastern Iowa will see 2-4” with isolated higher amounts near 5”. Wednesday will be windy with a 10-20 mph blowing the powdery snow around.

Blog Graphic 5

Thursday through Saturday will be dry as temperatures warm to near 30 Saturday. This warm-up will not last long. A couple of cold fronts will push through bringing more Arctic air south with high temperatures Sunday and Monday in the low single digits.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on December 30, 2013

Near Normal Temps…Rain…Then Cold

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and not as cold. Low: 20-23. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High: 38-45. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 21-25. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 30s.

Monday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. High: mid-upper 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy and windy (SE 15-25 mph) with 20% chance of rain. High: upper 30s.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy (SE to NW 15-25 mph) with a 40% chance of rain. High: low 40s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 10-20 mph). High: mid 30s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and colder. High: low 20s.

Weather Extra Bar

We have been stuck in a pattern keeping our temperature well below normal and today was no exception. It was a cold start again this morning. Here are the morning lows.

Nov 29 AM Lows

The day started out sunny, but clouds have been slowly moving into the area this afternoon.

Nov 29 Vis Sat Image

The clouds will stick around tonight and act as a blanket. In addition to the clouds there will be a south breeze keeping our temperatures near normal (low 20s) by morning.

The weather will remain dry through the weekend so we can get out and enjoy the warmer conditions. There is a slight chance of a few light showers Monday, but as it looks now most areas will not see much at all…if any rain. There is another slight chance of rain Tuesday. The best chance of rain will come Wednesday.

Nov 29 QPF

The latest model guidance keeps the heaviest precipitation north of Iowa and conditions warm enough for mainly rain Tuesday/Wednesday. There is a slight chance across northern Iowa Tuesday morning of a snow shower mixed in with a light rain shower before temperatures warm into the upper 30s.

The rain will end Wednesday evening at the same time cold air pushes into Iowa. The way I see it at this point, we will have just rain with a snow flake or two possible Wednesday evening as it gets colder. Most, if not all, of the precipitation will be out of the area by the time it gets cold enough to change over to snow.  Temperatures above freezing during the day and rain chances might eliminate most of the snow currently on the ground.

Nov 29 Wed AM Models

It will get colder around here again as temperatures will be in the low 20s for highs Friday.

 

Helmet Iowa_St
Iowa State at West Virginia (Morgantown, WV at 3 PM Saturday).

Partly cloudy. Kickoff Temp: 39. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on November 29, 2013

Slick Roads Tonight…A COLD Weekend

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: A wintry mix this evening will change to light snow. Accumulation: around 1”. Low: 23-26. Wind: N 15-25 mph

Friday: Decreasing clouds. High: 30-34. Wind: N 10-20 mph.

Thursday Evening: Partly cloudy with a few flurries possible. Low: 13-16. Wind: W 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, windy (N 15-25 mph) and colder. High: low 20s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold. High: mid-upper 20s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of light rain/snow. High: low-mid 30s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: low 30s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 20s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: near 30.

Weather Extra Bar

As precipitation pushes into eastern Iowa this evening the temperatures will be dropping below freezing. The result will be a light wintry mix (freezing rain/snow)  from 4 to 9 PM. The transition to light snow will happen from west to east from 6-11 PM. Here is the radar image from around 4 PM. The wind will also increase (15-25 mph) from the north tonight blowing some of the light snow around.

Blog Graphic 3
Some of the roads this afternoon in central Iowa are already icy. Slick roads are expected this evening and tonight in eastern Iowa so please use caution on the roads. Here is a look at the road conditions from this afternoon.

Blog Graphic 2

Click on the button (ROAD CONDITIONS) located on the right hand side of the main page of the blog the latest road conditions.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect from Black Hawk County southwest until midnight.

Blog Graphic 1

The accumulating snow will end by sunrise Friday with accumulations around 1” or less across all of eastern Iowa. Clouds and a few flurries are possible early Friday morning otherwise we will have plenty of sunshine. It will be a cold and windy day.

A secondary cold front will drop south across Iowa Friday night with a few flurries. Here is the forecast position of the front Friday evening.

Nov 21 Fri Eve Sfc Map

It will be a COLD weekend with highs in the 20s. Saturday will be in the low 20s with upper 20s on Sunday. Saturday will be windy with the wind diminishing Saturday night as temperatures drop into the single digits by Sunday morning.

Another cold front is forecast to move through Iowa Monday with a slight chance of a rain/snow shower.  Behind that, Tuesday through Thursday will be dry with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on November 21, 2013

Sunshine this Weekend…Rain Likely Next Week

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Mostly clear, windy and not as cold. Low: 38-41. Wind: SW/NW 10-20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and windy. High: 46-53. Wind: NW 15-25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low: 24-28. Wind: W 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: low 50s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NE 10-20 mph). High: low 50s.

Tuesday: Cloudy and windy (E 10-20 mph) with a 50% chance of rain showers. High: low-mid 40s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers. High: upper 40s.

Thursday: Cloudy and windy (W 15-25 mph) with a 30% chance of rain showers. High: near 50.

Friday: Cloudy and windy (W 10-20 mph). High: near 50.

Weather Extra Bar

It was a cold start this morning. The coldest temperatures we have seen so far this season. If you were up early this morning, just about everything had a heavy frost on it. Here are the morning lows.

Oct 25 Fri AM Lows

The wind has been gusting to 30 mph from the southwest this afternoon pushing temperatures into the low-mid 50s with plenty of sunshine. A few clouds have passed overhead, but otherwise a mostly sunny sky. Here is the visible satellite image from early this afternoon.

Oct 25 Vis Sat
ISS
A clear sky this evening will give us the chance to see the International Space Station (ISS) two times.

#1
Time: 6:47 PM
Duration: 6 minutes
Path: NW to E

#2
8:25 PM
Duration: 1 minute
Path: West

A cold front is forecast to cross Iowa late tonight into early Saturday morning. Here is the WPC forecast map for Saturday morning.

Oct 25 Sat AM Sfc

The front will come through dry and switch the wind direction from the southwest to the northwest. Windy conditions are forecast to continue through early Saturday afternoon. At that time the wind will gradually diminish as high pressure moves into the area. High temperatures tomorrow will be cooler than today. Morning low temperatures Sunday will be cold again, dropping to the 20s with little to no wind.

The next concern is the storm we have been tracking for about a week now. The skies will become mostly cloudy Monday as the storm approaches Iowa from the southwest. Rain looks likely Tuesday through Thursday. The way temperatures are forecast…it will be a cold rain. Oh and the wind will be at least 10-20 mph through these days as well.

Early rain amounts could be in the 1.00-1.50” range. This would be a total of the three days combined…see map below.

Oct 25 Rain Forecast

There was a bit of a question on the temperatures Tuesday night dropping below freezing and the potential for a few snow showers to get mixed in. It looks like there will be warm enough air in the lowest layers of the atmosphere to keep the precipitation in the form of rain. Here is the GFS model sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) for Wednesday morning. Image below courtesy of twisterdata.com.

Oct 25 Wed AM Sounding

Ok now let’s take a look at Thursday…Halloween. The model guidance lately has not been very consistent with the tail end of the storm and the latest updated keeps it that way…all over the place. Take a look at the maps below for Thursday morning. The position of the low is all over the place and the back edge of the rain is all over the place as well. I hope as we get closer the models come together a little bit more.

Oct 25 Thu AM Maps

 

Football
High School Football Friday evening:
Mostly clear with temperatures in the 40s. Wind: SW 15-25 mph.

Helmet Iowa
Northwestern vs. Iowa (Iowa City) 11:00 AM
Mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the 40s. Wind: NW 15-25 mph

Helmet Northern_Iowa
UNI vs. South Dakota State (Brookings, SD) 2:00 PM
Click here for the forecast and current conditions.

Helmet Iowa_St
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State (Ames) 11 AM Family Weekend
Mostly sunny with temperatures in the 40s. Wind: NW 15-25 mph.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on October 25, 2013

May 29

TodayinWeatherHistoryFrom NWS
1965
: Unusually cold weather resulted in frost and freezing temperatures across much of the northern half of Iowa on the mornings of May 28th and 29th. On the 29th reported low temperatures included 31 F at Grundy Center and Oelwein, 30 F at Decorah and Grinnell, 29 F at Anamosa, Fayette, and Waterloo, 27 F at Saratoga, and 23 F at Independence.

1947: On the morning after the incredible snow storm of May 28th high pressure moved across Iowa, providing light winds and clear skies with snowpack in place across much of the state. This resulted in the latest general spring freeze on record in Iowa with freezing temperatures especially prevalent across about the northwestern two thirds of the state. Low temperatures recorded that morning included 23 F at Cherokee and Primghar, 25 F at Le Mars and Spencer, 26 F at Ida Grove and Sioux Rapids, 27 F at Sioux City, 28 F at Audubon, Denison, Elkader, Grundy Center, and Logan, and 32 F at Des Moines. At numerous locations across Iowa including Des Moines this remains the latest spring freeze on record.

1934: What would become one of the hottest summers on record in Iowa began to intensify as the temperature exceeded 100 F at numerous locations around the state. At Des Moines the temperature reached 104 F which remains the earliest date on which a 100 F or higher temperature has been recorded at that location. Other high temperatures included 104 F at Little Sioux and Pocahontas, 105 F at Knoxville and Winterset, and 106 F at Carroll and Guthrie Center. Amazingly this searing heat came only two days after unseasonably cool temperatures had settled across Iowa, with low temperatures of 42 F at Decorah and 38 F at Cedar Rapids and Olin on the morning of the 27th.

This Day in National/World Weather History …
 29 May 1914 → Shallow river fog contributed to the collision of the CP Liner Empress of Ireland and a Norwegian coal ship, The Storstad, in the St. Lawrence River. The liner sank in 25 minutes drowning 1,024 passengers.
 29 May 1953 → An F5 tornado destroyed a large church near Fort Rice, ND. The pews were jammed four feet into the ground. Parts of a car were carried for half a mile.
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Posted under Weather History

This post was written by Schnack on May 29, 2013

May 20

TodayinWeatherHistoryFrom NWS
1892
: May was a very wet month with Des Moines recording precipitation on 23 days and significant flooding occurring across Iowa. Late on the 19th a cold front moved across the state bringing in unseasonably cool air. Remarkably, temperatures fell enough to allow light snow and sleet to mix with rain at times across nearly the entire state on the 20th making this one of the latest instances of Iowa snowfall on record. At most locations where sleet and snow were observed only a trace was reported as ground temperatures did not allow for accumulation. Stations reporting traces of snowfall included Clarinda, Corning, Cedar Rapids, Centerville, Des Moines, Glenwood, Indianola, Keosauqua, Logan, Oskaloosa, and Sac City along with numerous other towns. The observer at Logan noted that “there was quite a storm of hail and snow on the 20th, melting as it fell.” Across northern Iowa where ground temperatures were slightly cooler measurable snow was recorded at three stations with 0.1 inches at Algona and 0.3 inches at Osage and Storm Lake. Further north measurable snow fell across much of Minnesota with several inches reported in some areas including the Twin Cities, making this the latest measurable snowfall on record at that location. Only the amazing storm of May 28, 1947 produced a later widespread snowfall in Iowa, and May of 1892 remains the wettest May on record in the state.

This Day in National/World Weather History …
 20 May 1957 → An F5 tornado touched down southwest of Kansas City, then traveled 71 miles through the suburbs. The tornado killed 45 people and left a path of near-total destruction in its wake. All that remained at one house was a small table with a fish bowl sitting on top, with the fish still swimming inside. A canceled check from Kansas City was blown all the way to Ottumwa, IA, a distance of nearly 200 miles.
 20 May 1996 → In Niagara, Ontario a tornado struck a drive-in theater that was about to show the feature movie, Twister.
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Posted under Weather History

This post was written by Schnack on May 20, 2013