UPDATED at 4:15 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 57-61. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 82-86. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and warm. Low: 62-66. Wind: SE 5-10 mph

Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy (SE 15-25 mph) with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 70s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 70.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: near 70.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: low 70s.

A stationary front currently located east/west across Iowa may trigger isolated showers/storms this evening. Any showers/storms will fall apart as the sun sets. The sky will be partly cloudy tonight through Saturday night.

Saturday will be warm and a little more humid than Friday as the stationary front slowly drifts north of Iowa.

We are still tracking the chance of severe weather for Sunday. Storms west of Iowa Saturday will be moving east and falling apart Saturday night. A few might make it as far east as eastern Iowa by Sunday morning. The sky will be partly cloudy Sunday. It will also be warm, humid and windy. The cold front and low is forecast to slowly push east with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening. The following severe weather is possible Sunday afternoon/evening: large hail, high winds, flooding rain and a few tornadoes. The maps below show the forecast position of the low and fronts in addition to the slight risk area and the best chance of severe weather within that risk area.

If you have been following the forecast and blog forecasts you know that there was a chance of severe weather across eastern Iowa on Monday as well. The latest information indicates that will may still see some showers/storms but the threat for any severe weather would be south of Iowa (see map below).

Rain showers are still possible Tuesday and Wednesday as this low slowly moves east. High temperatures will cool to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves into the Midwest.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. Low: 55-60. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: 75-81. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 57-61. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: low 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 70.

It has been a beautiful spring day with high temperatures in the low 80s, low humidity and a light SE wind. A warm front is located east/west across southern Iowa. Along and south of the front it is humid with dewpoints in the 60s.

The warm front is going to gradually move north across Iowa tonight and Friday. Along the front later tonight and Friday showers and storms are forecast to develop. The map below show the forecast postion of the warm front at 1 pm Friday.

Some of the storms could be strong Friday afternoon, but at this time are not expected to be severe. Saturday through Monday will be humid with dewpoints in the 60s across all of eastern Iowa. Saturday will be a dry with highs in the low 80s. Sunday and Monday are the two days we have been tracking for the potential of severe weather. At this point severe storms are possible. The map below shows the areas where severe is possible Sunday and Monday. The forecast surface map is located below the outlook areas.

The chance of severe storms would be late Sunday afternoon through Monday. The threat from these storms would be hail, high winds and a few tornadoes. Stay up to date on the forecast through the weekend for the latest on this possible severe weather.

Showers and storms are still possible behind the cold front Tuesday, but I am not expecting any severe storms. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s. Showers and a few storms are still possible with the next low pressure system.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: A few sprinkles are possible this evening otherwise partly cloudy. Low: 52-56. Wind: E 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers south of Cedar Rapids late in the afternoon or evening. High: 77-79. Wind: E 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low: 57-60. Wind: E 10-15 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Today is the 45th anniversary of a Midwest tornado outbreak with two F5 tornadoes in Iowa. Click here for a look back.
A few sprinkles are possible this evening otherwise a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky is expected tonight through Thursday. A stationary front south of Iowa might drift just far enough north Thursday a few showers may develop late in the afternoon or evening from Cedar Rapids south. Here is the position of the stationary front this afternoon.

The warm front will lift north across Iowa Friday bring a chance of showers/storms. Here is the WPC forecast map for Friday morning.

The rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Friday evening can vary greatly due to the scattered nature of showers/storms. Here is the general rain forecast for this time frame.

There looks like less and less of a chance of any showers/storms for Saturday. I could have gone either way with leaving in a slight chance of storms or taking them out of the forecast. I left them in for one more round of computer models. If it stays the way I see it this afternoon I will take the chance of storms out of tomorrows forecast concerning Saturday.

Now for Sunday that might be a different scenario. Sunday and Monday will be warm and humid with a gusty south wind. The atmosphere will be unstable and there is good shear. We are still tracking the potential for severe storms Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly pushes through Iowa. Here is a look at a few charts when it comes to Sunday.

Timing and specifics on the severe weather potential will be best known Saturday afternoon and/or Sunday morning. There is still time for models to adjust. So just stay up to date with the forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with more clouds and scattered showers on the back of the surface low.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Mostly clear with a 20% chance of a storm. Low: 57-62. Wind: SW to NW 5-15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 76-82. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 51-55. Wind: E 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

The last time Iowa had a tornado was on May 24, 2012. The tornado was in Fayette County near Hawkeye. At the end of today the record of 355 days between tornadoes will be tied. Each day after today will be a new record until the next tornado in Iowa. The previous record of 355 days occurred between May 5, 1955 and April 26 1956. 

High temperatures this afternoon reached the low 100s in northwest Iowa where the wind is stronger from the southwest and the dewpoints are much lower. Dry air is easier to warm up. The dewpoints in parts of eastern Iowa are in the upper 50s and low 60s…therefore harder to warm up. High temperatures in eastern Iowa were in the low -mid 90s with a few records either tied or broken.

In less than two weeks we have seen snow in Iowa and high temperatures reaching 100+ degrees. There were only two other times, in Iowa, where snow fell some place in Iowa in the same month high temperatures reached 100+ degrees.

May 1967
May 3 Glenwood had 8″ of snow and on May 24 Onawa hit a high of 100 and on the 25th Sioux Center reached 104.

April 1980
Albia had a monthly snow total of 17″. Waterloo had 0.9″ of snow on April 9th. On April 22 Fort Dodge and Waterloo reached 100 degrees. This 100 degree reading is also the earlist 100 temperature in Iowa.

Now for the weather forecast…A cold front in northwest Iowa this afternoon is forecast to track southeast with just a slight chance of a stray storm this evening otherwise a mostly clear sky is expected. A very narrow band of showers have developed ahead of the cold front. Here is the radar:

High temperatures Wednesday will be cooler with a light north wind behind the cold front. Thursday will be pleasant before the weather becomes active.

The cold front tonight will stall across Missouri Wednesday and Thursday. It will begin to lift north into Iowa with a chance of showers/storms Friday. The warm front will be north of Iowa Saturday with highs in the 80s and a slight chance of a shower/storm. Low pressure and cold front will be approaching Iowa from the west Sunday. The forecast condition of the atmosphere could bring us a chance of severe weather. This is something we will be tracking for the rest of the week. The maps below give more information about the severe weather chances.

The cold front will be farther east Monday so the threat for severe weather will no longer be, but there is still a chance of showers/storms. Cooler air and scattered showers are forecast for Tuesday.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Mostly clear and not as cold. Low: 49-52. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy and hot. High: 87-92. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low: 57-63. Wind: W 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 70s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s.

The last two mornings there has been frost in some locations. Temperatures have warmed quickly with the dry air in place.  A record low temperature of 34 degrees was tied in Cedar Rapids this morning. The previous time was in 1997.

A warm front is currently located in central Iowa and ahead of it there will be a few sprinkles or a stray shower this evening. Here is the current position of the warm front.

The front will move east tonight bringing in the warmer air for tomorrow. We will get a taste of summer heat with high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. We will come close to some record highs. Here are the records for Tuesday May 14th:

Waterloo: 94 in 1932
Dubuque: 92 in 1932
Cedar Rapids 93 in 1932
Iowa City: 91 in 1932

Tuesday will be hot but not very humid as dewpionts will be in the 50s. The gusty southwest wind, low dewpoints and some vegetation still dry any burning could get out of control quickly. If you must burn please use extra caution.

A cold front is forecast to cross eastern Iowa Tuesday night with a slight chance of a shower or two. The front will south of eastern Iowa Wednesday morning. Cooler and more pleasant conditions are expected behind the front with highs reaching the upper 70s and a lighter wind. Here is the WPC forecast position of the cold front Wednesday morning.

Friday through Monday next week will be unsettled as a stationary front stalls across the state and low pressure develops west of Iowa and slowly moves east along the front. Locally heavy downpours are possible with the storms as it will be muggy with dewpoints getting into the low 60s this weekend.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low: 44-47. Wind: W 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and windy. High: 54-60. Wind: NW 15-25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold with frost possible. Low: 31-37. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 50s.

Monday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S 10-20 mph). High: mid 60s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and windy (S 15-25 mph). High: low 80s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 70s. 

Clouds have been slowly clearing from northwest to southeast. The clouds are associated with the low over Indiana and Michigan. We are tracking a cold front located over North Dakota this afternoon. It is forecast to cross eastern Iowa late tonight and early Saturday morning. Here is surface map this afternoon.

There is very little moisture with this front so as it crosses eastern Iowa a stray shower or sprinkles are possible. Most locations will remain dry and any rain that does fall will be mainly trace amounts. After the front crosses the state the wind will increase from the northwest in the morning. The wind will remain strong through the day. Here is the WPC forecast map for 1PM Saturday.

The high temperatures this weekend will be about 15 degrees cooler than normal. Saturday will be windy making it feel like a raw day. Sunday the wind will be lighter so it will “feel” a bit warmer even though the temperatures will be nearly the same.

The wind will diminish Saturday evening and be light overnight. Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the low and mid 30s. It will be cold enough for frost to form. If you have plants that are cold sensitive you will want to cover them, bring them into the garage or shed or protect them in some way from the frost.

Frost this time of year is not unheard of, but it is also not common. The map below shows the average last 32 degree day. May 4^th is the latest for the average last 32 degree day. We will be one week past that date this weekend. The way this spring has gone…I am not surprised to see the possibility of frost this late.

The temperatures will begin to warm up Monday as the wind increases from the south. A warm front is forecast to cross the state from the west Monday night. High temperatures behind the warm front will be near 80 degrees. The wind will be gusty Tuesday from the south helping to push the 80s into eastern Iowa. Here is the WPC forecast map for Tuesday morning.

A cold front is forecast to push into Iowa Wednesday with a chance of showers/storms. The front will stall sought of Iowa Thursday for a dry day and then drift back north with another chance of showers/storms for Friday. During this time the high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s and at times low 80s.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Cloudy with showers ending. Low: 44-50. Wind: N 10-15 mph.

Friday:  Decreasing clouds and breezy. High: 61-66. Wind: N 10-20 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 43-47. Wind: W 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and windy (N 15-25 mph). High: upper 50s

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S 10-20 mph). High: near 70.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and windy (SW 15-25 mph). High: low 80s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 70s.

Low pressure continues to track east across Iowa this afternoon with scattered showers. Here is the position of the low pressure system this afternoon.

Some locations have seen more than 1” of rain in central Iowa. There have also been some reports of funnel clouds in central Iowa. These are cold air funnels and they almost never reach the ground. They are not associated with severe thunderstorms. The photo below was taken north of Fort Dodge this afternoon by Bruce Becker.

The rain showers will taper off tonight, but while the showers are out there this evening they will be tracking northeast.

The clouds will slowly clear during the afternoon on Friday. A cold front will race south across Iowa Friday night and is forecast to be located south of Iowa Saturday morning (see map below). The cold front will come through Iowa dry.

The weekend will be mostly sunny and cooler with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. The wind will be gusty from the northwest behind the cold front Saturday. The high pressure over the Dakotas will drift southeast resulting in a light wind Sunday for Mother’s Day.

A warm front is forecast to cross the Midwest Monday as the wind increases from the south with warmer afternoon highs near 70. The warm front will be east of Iowa Tuesday allowing warm air (80s) to spread across Iowa. The warm weather will also come with a gusty southwest wind.

A cold front is forecast to drop south across Iowa Wednesday with a chance of showers/storms. Here is the WPF forecast map for Wednesday morning.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers. Low: 52-55. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with 70% chance of showers/storms. High: 67-71. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low: 44-48. Wind: S 5-15 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and windy (N 15-25 mph). High: near 60.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph). High: near 80.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: near 80.

A slow moving area of low pressure, over Oklahoma this afternoon, will track northeast tonight and then east across southern Iowa Thursday. Clouds have been increasing this afternoon as a few light showers have pushed into eastern Iowa. Here is the radar at 4:02 PM:

Scattered showers will continue on and off tonight through Thursday before ending Thursday evening. Isolated non-severe storms are possible Thursday. The map below shows the amount of rain forecast from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening.

The clouds will clear Friday with slightly cooler temperatures. A cold front will race across Iowa late Friday night/early Saturday morning (see map below for Saturday morning).

The front will come through dry. Cooler weather behind it for Saturday and Sunday will keep highs near 60 degrees. A gusty northwest wind Saturday right behind the front will add to the chill. High pressure moves into the area Sunday and as a result the wind will be much lighter.

Temperatures warm back into the upper 60s Monday and jump to near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.  A slight chance of a shower/storm Wednesday is possible as a cold front approaches Iowa from the northwest.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:40 PM

Tonight:  Mostly clear. Low: 49-52. Wind: Light.

Wednesday: AM: Mostly sunny. PM: Clouds with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: 71-77. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. Low: 54-56. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with 60% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and windy (N 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of a shower. High: near 60.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph). High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph). High: mid 70s.

It is another beautiful spring day. Here are the 4 pm temperatures across the state.

The afternoon cumulus we have this afternoon will dissipate leaving behind a mostly clear sky tonight. The wind will remain light as temperatures drop to near 50 degrees by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday morning will start out with sunshine. Clouds will increase as we get closer to lunch time. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east during the afternoon. Here is the WPC forecast map Wednesday morning.

Rain amounts from this storm will range from 0.50” to 1.00” (see map below).

Friday through Tuesday will be dry with a slight chance of a shower Saturday. A cold front will push through eastern Iowa in the morning. Most of Saturday will be dry with a gusty north wind and cooler temperatures. Mother’s Day will be mostly sunny with a lighter wind. The early to middle part of next week temperatures will warm quickly and by Wednesday potentially into the 80s.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

UPDATED at 4:00 PM

Tonight:  Mostly clear with patchy fog. Low 46-50. Wind: light.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 71-75. Wind: E 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 49-52. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms late in the day. High: low 70s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with 40% chance of showers/storms. High: near 70.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers in the AM. High: near 70.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy (N 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of showers. High: mid 60s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

It has been a pleasant spring day with sunshine, a light wind and temperatures into the low 70s this afternoon. The area of low pressure responsible for our recent rain is located over the southeast U.S. this afternoon (see map below). It is slow to move because it is cut off from the upper level flow.

A mostly clear sky tonight with a light wind and lots of moisture around from recent rain could produce some fog late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be another pleasant spring day with highs in the 70s with more sun and clouds.

We are tracking the next chance of rain/storms forecast to arrive late Wednesday afternoon. The low/front will cross the Midwest Thursday with the best chance of rain. A few light showers may linger into Friday morning otherwise most of Friday will be dry. Here is the WPC forecast map for Wednesday morning.

Rain amounts expected with this system will be up to 0.50”. Here is the rain forecast from Monday evening to Thursday evening.

A quick moving cold front with little moisture  is forecast to cross the state with a slight chance of a shower or two Saturday. Behind the front it will be cooler for Mother’s Day with highs near 60. Yes Sunday is forecast to be cooler at least it will be mostly sunny.

The outlook for May from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows temperatures to be near to below normal for eastern Iowa. Precipitation is forecast to be above normal.

Despite the heavy rain this spring and snow melting in Minnesota the rivers are doing pretty well. Here is one location that will have minor flooding. Cedar Falls along the Cedar River is forecast to crest Tuesday night above flood stage (see chart below). The river will remain below flood stage at Waterloo.

Posted under Forecast Discussion