Talking Warmth

February or April? It says February on the calendar, but if feels like late March. By the weekend it will feel more like April. The map below shows above normal temperatures across most of North America.

 

 

It hasn’t been much of a snowy winter. Through Feb 13, Waterloo has had only 14.4″ of snow. The chart below shows how it compares to normal on this date and the record amount. All the numbers up to Feb 13.

 

 

The 14.4″ of snow makes it the 4th least snowy winters since 1950.

 

 

There doesn’t seem to be any signs of cold air to produce any snow through the end of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the eastern half of the US through the end of the month.

 

 

 

The map below shows snow still on the ground across north central and northeast Iowa today. I doubt it is going to last long with no snow on the ground north and south of this area. A bare ground can warm faster and help melt the snow it surrounds. The bare ground heading into the weekend is also part of why it is going to get so warm. Highs in many locations are forecast to reach the low 60s.

 

 

 

Some records might be in jeopardy as we get into the weekend.

 

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Posted under Long Range Outlook, Precipitation Totals, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on February 13, 2017

Light Snow…Cold…Possible Ice Storm

9:30 PM UPDATE: Light snow moves into eastern Iowa overnight with accumulations around 1″ by sunrise Thursday. The roads will be slick due to the overnight snow. Allow time to get to your destination. Here is where the snow is this evening.
KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED


A light wintry mix of sleet/snow/freezing drizzle in eastern Iowa continues to move east this evening.

KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

Tonight: Roads will be slick in some locations so use caution when traveling. A light wintry mix this evening followed by a chance of light snow or flurries overnight. Any snow accumulation overnight would be less than 1”. Combine temperatures dropping to around 10 degrees and a NW at 10-20 mph the wind chills late tonight will be in the single digits below zero.

DMA Forecast - Tonight NEW

Thursday: It is a cold day with highs in the teens and low 20s. Clouds in the morning give way to sunshine in the afternoon.

Wind Forecast

Thursday Night: The sky becomes mostly cloudy and it will be cold. Low temperatures are in the single digits above and below zero with the colder readings in the northern counties.

Friday: The wind is light as we are tracking light snow showers. Any accumulation will be less than 1”. Another cold day with highs in the teens.

Saturday: Temperatures warm into the 20s with a mostly cloudy sky.

Sunday: We are tracking a storm forecast to bring freezing rain to eastern Iowa late in the afternoon or evening. Freezing rain is possible through the overnight making roads icy.

The map below is a forecast model showing the potential for freezing rain (pink on the map) Sunday evening moving north.

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Monday: Freezing rain may continue into the morning before changing to rain as temperatures warm. We are still many days away. We will continue to track this potential ice storm as the storm evolves.

Above normal temperatures are likely January 19-25.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Ice, Long Range Outlook, Weather History

This post was written by Schnack on January 11, 2017

Bitter Cold Air Continues Into the Weekend

Wind Chill Advisory2
Tonight:
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect across northern Iowa tonight with wind chills as cold as 20 below in this area. Temperatures are forecast to drop to the single digits below zero with a few breaks in the cloud cover in northern Iowa. Areas around Cedar Rapids and south remain cloudy keeping temperatures in the single digits above zero and wind chills around 10 below. Flurries are possible in the southern counties as well. 

Thursday: Another bitterly cold day with highs from 4-14 and wind chills of 0 to 10 below zero. A few flurries maybe a light snow shower is possible south of Cedar Rapids otherwise mostly cloudy. We are on the north edge of an area of snow across Missouri.
2 Snow chance

Wind Forecast

Thursday Night: The clouds slowly thin out overnight as temperatures fall into the single digits below zero again. A 10-15 mph puts wind chills in a 20 or 25 below zero range late.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Frigid air remains during this time with high temperatures in the teens and a mostly sunny sky.

Monday: The sky becomes cloudy with a gusty south wind pushing highs into the low 30s.

Tuesday: We are tracking a storm forecast to stay north of Iowa and one more time we will be on the warm side. A gusty south wind keeps warming our high temperatures and this time to near 40. A few snowflakes are possible in the morning, but most if not all of the light precipitation will fall in the form of rain.

The map below shows the light rain Tuesday in parts of Iowa otherwise dry for the next seven days.

 

1QPF

There is some hope to stay out of the deep freeze Jan 12-18. The map below shows a slight chance of above normal temperatures.
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Posted under Long Range Outlook, Temperatures

This post was written by Schnack on January 4, 2017

Another Cold Blast

Below normal temperatures are likely Jan 5-9. Hey Alaska and Florida….come join in the “fun”.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on December 30, 2016

Here we go again

Who is ready for below normal temperatures again? Another round of below normal temperatures is likely Jan 4-10.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on December 27, 2016

ICYMI Dec 5 – Canadian Model – BRRRR – 47″ of Snow –

Getting the forecast right is the ultimate goal for Meteorologists. We use many different kinds of model guidance to help us with that and one if them is the Canadian model. It might be getting an upgrade in the near future. Click here for the details.

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Below normal temperatures in Alaska and western Canada are coming south this week with high temperatures in the teens and 20s and potential wind chills above and below zero.
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47″ of snow in 36 hours…Check out the time lapse…this was in April 2016 in Evergreen, CO.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook, Video, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 5, 2016

Why Long-Range Snow Forecasts are Wrong

In the past 7-10 days I have been asked about a major winter storm in the middle of next week. The problem with that is when all of this started it was about 10-14 days before the “storm”. Here is another way a looking at long-range snow forecasts. Any details you read about or share are most likely going to be wrong. My best advise is not to share that kind of information 10-14 days out.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook, NOAA, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 2, 2016

ICYMI Nov 30 – Circumhorizon Arc/ Colder Days Ahead/ Snow Cover/ White Sands

Circumhorizon Arc
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November is going to go down as the second warmest November on Record. Things might be changing as we head into December, the first month of Meteorological winter (Dec/Jan/Feb). Temperatures are might be colder than normal December 8-14.

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Here is a look at the snow cover across the U.S. today compared to November 30, 2015.

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The White Sands of New Mexico looks like snow. Click here for a more detailed look at the photo and why it looks that way.
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Posted under Long Range Outlook, Optics, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on November 30, 2016

ICYMI Oct 19 – Warmer Days/Meteor Shower/Record Temps

Cooler weather Thursday and Friday does not last long. Warmer weather returns for the weekend and may continue through early November.
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A clear sky Thursday night/Friday morning allows us to see Orionid meteor shower. It is forecast to peak late in the evening into early morning hours of Friday. Click here for more details.

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High temperatures Monday were warm. They were so far above normal in parts of eastern Iowa we have to go back to early March.

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Posted under Astronomy, Long Range Outlook, Temperatures

This post was written by Schnack on October 19, 2016

ICYMI Sep 30…Rain Totals/October Outlook/Matthew

Here is a look at the rainfall across Iowa and the Midwest. The highest rain total reported in Iowa was 2.4 miles SSE of Nora Springs with 17.25″ of rain.

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Now take a look at the rainfall for the Midwest.
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The Climate Prediction Center, outlook for October is above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in NW Iowa.

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The latest update on Hurricane Matthew puts as a category 4 storm with winds up to 150 mph. The map below shows that it is forecast to turn north this weekend and weaken to a category 2 hurricane after it moves over Cuba.
2015 Tropics
Click here for the latest forecast track.

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The leaves are starting to change. Here is a look at when the average peak colors are across Iowa. Click here for the latest update on the fall colors.

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Posted under Astronomy, Fall Colors, Long Range Outlook, NOAA, Precipitation Totals, Tropics

This post was written by Schnack on September 30, 2016