Warmer Days Ahead

After a bitterly cold weekend and start to the work week the temperatures are look to be heading in the other direction. We will be near normal through early next week. The 8-14 day outlook (Jan 27-Feb 2) shows above normal temperatures.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on January 19, 2016

Outlook Through January

Temperatures through the rest of December are likely to be above normal. A couple of cold days are possible, but the average temperatures will be above normal.

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The most common comment I have heard recently is “we will probably get hammered in January and February”. Well the January outlook was released today and our El Nino pattern is expected to continue with above normal temperatures.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on December 17, 2015

Warm December…So Far

I know there is still a lot of time left in December, but I thought I would take a look at the early numbers. Through the 7th of December it is the warmest December on record, at Waterloo. Again, we still have a lot of December to go to change the average temperature. The chart below is the average temperature in December at Waterloo through the 7th.
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High temperatures Thursday are forecast to reach the mid 50s. During this time of the month and later, reaching 55° doesn’t happen very often. Check out the chart below showing the lack of 55°+ days in December.

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The outlook leading up to Christmas keeps a good chance of above normal temperatures across Iowa.

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Posted under Climate, Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on December 8, 2015

December Outlook

The updated outlook for December was released today and it shows temperatures are likely to be above normal. As for the precipitation, there is nothing that helps lean either way (above or below)…therefore the “EC”=Equal Chances.

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If you want to read the technical discussion from the Climate Prediction Center click here.

The map below shows the normal precipitation amounts for December.
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The map below shows the normal high temperatures for December.
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Posted under Long Range Outlook, NOAA

This post was written by Schnack on November 30, 2015

Winter Outlook From NOAA….Thursday

NOAA LogoOn Thursday, October 15, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will announce the U.S. temperature and precipitation outlook for winter, December through February, and discuss the latest forecast for El Niño and how that might influence this winter season.

El Niño developed in March 2015 and has become strong. El Niño is known to exert a strong influence on climate patterns, particularly during winter. NOAA forecasters predict El Niño will likely to peak in late fall/early winter, and gradually weaken through spring 2016.

NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. Empowering people with the information they need to take action to protect themselves is key to NOAA’s effort to build a Weather-Ready Nation

 

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on October 13, 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

The latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates temperatures temperatures above normal August 18-24.

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Parts of northeast and northwest Iowa are in need of some rain. The Drought Monitor data released Friday has abnormally dry conditions for this area.

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The precipitation outlook is near normal.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on August 10, 2015

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

The recent 8-14 day outlook (for August 12-18) shows the potential for above normal temperatures.
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Below normal precipitation is also expected during this time as well. So if you are in need of rain now, it doesn’t look like there will be much relief from the dry weather.

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on August 4, 2015

A Look Back and Ahead

June wound up being a wet month for many locations in Iowa. The map below shows the radar estimated rain totals for the month of June.

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Here are a few monthly rain totals in eastern Iowa.
Waterloo 5.47″ (+0.49″ of normal)
Dubuque 8.34″ (+3.49″ of normal…10th wettest June)
Cedar Rapids 8.85″(+3.93″ of normal)
Iowa City 5.88″ (+1.27″ of normal)

Other rain totals across the state:
Des Moines 8.40″
Mason City 5.04″
Ottumwa 7.79″
Sioux City 4.19″
Burlington 7.06″

At times it felt like it rained every day of the month. In reality it didn’t here are the number of days with 0.01″ of rain reported.
Waterloo 10 days
Dubuque 12 days
Cedar Rapids 13 days
Iowa City  14 days

A look at the average temperatures shows near normal readings in June
Waterloo -0.7° of normal
Dubuque -04.° of normal
Cedar Rapids -0.4° of normal
Iowa City +0.3° of normal

The look ahead shows more wet weather with potentially above normal rain and below normal temperatures across Iowa.

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Posted under Climate, Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on July 1, 2015

July Outlook

The July outlook was released on June 18th from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

The map below shows temperatures below normal for the middle of the country with above normal temperatures on the east and west coast.

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The map below shows above normal precipitation expected for much of the middle and western part of the nation except the west coast. Expect below normal precipitation in the southeast and far southern Texas.

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A look at the June numbers, through 24th, it has been a wet June with near normal temperatures.

Waterloo
Rain: 4.41″
Avg Temp: 0.2 below normal

Dubuque
Rain: 7.43″
Avg Temp: 0.3 above normal

Cedar Rapids
Rain: 8.23″
Avg Temp: 0.5 above normal

Iowa City
Rain: 5.13″
Avg Temp: 0.7 above normal

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Posted under Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on June 25, 2015

Drought Monitor and Cooler Weather

The latest Drought Monitor data was released today. Eastern Iowa is starting to get dry.
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Here are the rain totals through April 16.

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The last few days have been so nice with highs in the 60s and 70s. Starting Monday our highs won’t be so warm. A lot more 50s are in the forecast next week and probably for the rest of the month. The outlook below is for April 24-30.
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Posted under Drought, Long Range Outlook

This post was written by Schnack on April 16, 2015