Here is the winter 2013-2014 outlook from the Farmers’ Almanac. Click the image for more details.
Posted under Long Range Outlook
This post was written by Schnack on August 26, 2013
UPDATED at 4:00 PM
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 19-23. Wind: N 5-15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High: 33-37. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 16-21. Wind: N 5-10 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 30s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 40s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 40s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. High: near 50.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. High: upper 40s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. High: mid 40s.
There are a few storm spotter training classes this week.
|Monday March 25||6:30 p.m.||Black Hawk||Waterloo||Hawkeye Community College
|6:30 p.m.||Dubuque||Dubuque||Dubuque County Emergency Management 14928 Public Safety Way
|Tuesday March 26||7:00 p.m.||Cedar||Lowden||Lowden Fire Department
|6:30 p.m.||Winneshiek||Decorah||Decorah City Hall|
|Tuesday March 26||7:00 p.m.||Webinar||Anywhere||Click here for directions|
|Thursday March 28||6:30 p.m.||Grant||Fennimore, WI||Fennimore Fire Station|
|Thursday March 28||6:30 p.m.||Hardin||Alden||Public Library City of Alden|
Training from surrounding NWS offices:
There is a large area of low pressure in the east part of the nation and it is going to be slow to move. We are still being influenced by the low that is along the coast with a mostly cloudy sky today and a gusty north wind.
Thursday will be a nice day with a mix of sun and clouds as temperatures warm into the 40s by the afternoon. Friday clouds will increase as we track an area of low pressure to bring us a chance of rain for the weekend. High temperatures this weekend might reach the upper 40s…MAYBE 50… if there is enough dry time during the day Saturday.
The rain forecast from Monday evening to Saturday evening is light. Keep in mind the only chance of rain will be Saturday in the time frame of the map below.
This post was written by Schnack on March 25, 2013
The updated Drought Monitor was released today. The conditions have not changed in the last 7 days. The worst conditions remain in the western half of the state. The best conditions are in east central and southeast Iowa where the conditions are only abnormally dry.
The seasonal drought outlook was released today and it shows that there is improvement on the way for Iowa. The outlook is through the end of June.
The Climate Prediction Center issued the outlook for the next 3 month (April/May/June). Above normal precipitation is expected.
Here are the normal precipitation amounts for April/May/June:
Waterloo: 3.70+4.53+4.98= 13.21″
Dubuque: 3.66+4.19+4.40= 9.25″
Cedar Rapids: 3.05+4.15+4.92= 12.12″
Iowa City: 3.54+4.57+5.06= 13.17″
Decorah: 3.61+4.19+5.16= 9.96″
This post was written by Schnack on March 21, 2013
NOAA issued their winter outlook today. The forecast for Iowa is near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
The information below is from NOAA:
The western half of the continental U.S. and central and northern Alaska could be in for a warmer-than-average winter, while most of Florida might be colder-than-normal December through February, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today from the agency’s new Center for Weather and Climate Prediction in College Park, Md.
Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.
“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”
When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge.
Other climate factors can influence winter weather across the country. Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent climate pattern, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the winter outlook in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country.
Areas ravaged by extreme drought over the past year are unlikely to see much relief from drought conditions this winter.
In the 2012 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February) odds favor:
The rest of the country falls into the “equal chance” category, meaning these areas have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation.
This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.
This post was written by Schnack on October 18, 2012