Here is a forecast sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) and hodograph for Sunday evening over eastern Iowa. There is good shear in the atmosphere for possible tornado development. Storms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. Stay up to date on the forecast through the weekend.
Posted under Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on May 17, 2013
Here are some photos of the hail from the storms this morning.
Posted under Photo, Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on April 29, 2013
Last week, on April 18, Canada had it’s first tornado of the season. What made this a historic tornado is not the size, path, width or strength of it. The historic part is that it was the first tornado rated on the EF scale. Canada has adopted the EF scale this year while the United States has been using it since 2007. Here is the report from Environment Canada…the National Weather Service in Canada.
AWCN11 CWTO 191928 UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:21 PM EDT FRIDAY 19 APRIL 2013. ------------------------------------------------------------- ==WEATHER EVENT DISCUSSION== ..FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON IN ONTARIO CONFIRMED.. AT APPROXIMATELY 5:45 PM EDT ON THURSDAY, APRIL 18, A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SHELBURNE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF TORONTO. BASED ON A DAMAGE SURVEY BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA PERSONNEL, ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED A BRIEF ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) 1 TORNADO APPROXIMATELY 6 KILOMETRES TO THE NORTHWEST OF SHELBURNE. AN EF-1 TORNADO HAS PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 135 AND 175 KILOMETRES PER HOUR. THE KEY DAMAGE NOTED AT THIS SCENE WAS A BARN WITH ITS ROOF AND TWO WALLS REMOVED WITH SOME PIECES OF THE BARN FIRMLY EMBEDDED INTO THE GROUND AT A DISTANCE OF 50 TO 100 METRES FROM THE ORIGINAL LOCATION. THE TOTAL LENGTH OF THE DAMAGE PATH WAS 500 METRES WITH A WIDTH OF 75 METRES. INVESTIGATIONS ARE CONTINUING IN THIS AREA THAT MAY RESULT IN THE LENGTH AND WIDTH OF THE DAMAGE TRACK CHANGING OR OF THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER TORNADOES. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THIS IS THE FIRST TORNADO OF THE SEASON, NOT ONLY IN ONTARIO BUT IN ALL OF CANADA. THE SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER SEASON NORMALLY BEGINS IN LATE APRIL AND ENDS IN EARLY OCTOBER. ONTARIO SEES AN AVERAGE OF 12 TORNADOES EACH YEAR. THIS TORNADO ALSO REPRESENTS THE FIRST TORNADO IN CANADA TO BE RATED USING THE ENHANCED FUJITA (EF) SCALE AS OPPOSED TO THE ORIGINAL FUJITA SCALE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADOPTED THE EF SCALE IN 2007 AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS MONITORED ITS USE SINCE THAT TIME AND HAS DECIDED TO ALSO ADOPT THIS SCALE BEGINNING THIS YEAR. THE TYPES OF DAMAGE PRODUCED BY TORNADOES ON EITHER THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE OR THE ORIGINAL FUJITA SCALE ARE SIMILAR. HOWEVER, THE WIND SPEEDS OF THE VARIOUS CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE BEST AVAILABLE KNOWLEDGE CONCERNING THE WINDS REQUIRED TO DAMAGE STRUCTURES, VEHICLES AND TREES. THIS WEATHER SUMMARY CONTAINS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION AND MAY NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFICIAL OR FINAL REPORT. END/OSPC
Posted under Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on April 22, 2013
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0737 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...EXTREME SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 100037Z - 100200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF IA AND EXTREME SRN MN. WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM. Click here for the technical discussion.
Posted under Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on April 9, 2013
It was a quiet year when it comes to tornadoes in Iowa and especially in eastern Iowa. The two graphics below give you the highlights to of the season
The map below shows you where the tornadoes were in the state. The only tornado in eastern Iowa was 2.9 miles NNW of Hawkeye in Fayette County on May 24.
Click here for more information about the tornadoes in Iowa from the National Weather Service.
Posted under NOAA, Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on January 2, 2013
UPDATED at 4:10 PM
Tonight: Clouds and sprinkles this evening followed by decreasing clouds and colder temperatures. Low: 27-32. Wind: N 5-10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 54-56. Wind: E/SE 10-15 mph.
Friday Night: Increasing clouds with an 80% chance of showers/storms after midnight. Low: 43-46. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.
Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 100% chance of showers/storms. Severe storms are possible. High: upper 60s.
Sunday: Windy (NW 15-25 mph). AM: Clouds and showers ending. PM: Becoming mostly sunny. High: near 60.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S 10-20 mph) with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 60s.
As the cold front continues to track southeast this evening, the clouds will clear overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be colder. Lows will drop into the upper 20 and low 30s.
A large area of high pressure will move quickly from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Friday. The map below shows how large the high will be Friday morning over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The high will provide us with a mostly sunny day.
The storm that will impact us this weekend is currently over the west coast. You can see it on the water vapor satellite image below.
The first signs of the weekend storm will be an increase in cloud cover Friday night. We will see showers/storms develop after midnight north of a warm front in southwest Iowa. The map below is for Saturday morning.
The low is still forecast to be located in NW Iowa and SW Minnesota by Saturday evening. The warm front will have lifted north into Wisconsin. High temperatures will be approaching 70 degrees. The wind with the storm will be from the south gusting to 30 mph.
During the late afternoon and evening hours more showers/storms will develop and the ingredients for severe weather is still there in the computer models. The map below shows where the best chance of severe weather would occur as of the data we have today. The severe weather threat is hail, high wind, heavy rain and a slight chance of a tornado or two. We will continue to track this storm and have more updates through the weekend.
If we don’t get severe weather that will be good…as always…but the benefit will be the rain. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will have no problem being pulled north into this system. Rain amounts could exceed 1” in some locations. Here is the rain forecast from Thursday evening to Sunday evening.
Once the storm moves east the rain will end Sunday morning with the sun coming out in the afternoon. The temperatures will be colder Sunday with highs near 60. The wind will be the strongest in the morning from the NW at 15-25 mph. The wind will gradually diminish in the afternoon.
Monday will be dry. A warm front on Tuesday may trigger a few showers to develop but it will also push the highs into the upper 60s for the afternoon. A cold front will swing through the state Wednesday with another chance of showers. Thursday will be dry with cooler highs in the low 60s.
The updated Drought Monitor was released this morning. There was not change from last week. There is still 75% of the state in extreme drought and that was the same percentage as last week.
High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: SE 10-15 mph
College Football Forecast (Saturday)
Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 100% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph
Posted under Drought, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports
This post was written by Schnack on October 11, 2012
UPDATED at 4:05 PM
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy and not as cold. Low: 37-40. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High: 57-65. Wind: SW to N 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 29-33. Wind: N 5-10 mph.
Friday: AM: Sunny. PM: Increasing clouds. High: upper 50s.
Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph). High: low 60s.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.
The sky will be mostly clear this evening giving us a chance to see the International Space Station two times. It is expected to be very bright. Here is the information:
Time: 7:23 PM
Duration: 4 min
Path: S to ESE
Time: 8:59 PM
Duration: 1 min
Path: WSW to WSW
Tonight will not be as cold as it was this morning as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows tonight will be closer to 40 degrees.
A cold front will push through the area tomorrow dry. The front will stir up a few clouds and shift the wind to the north but that is all. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday. Here is forecast position of the cold front at 1pm.
High pressure (over the Dakotas on the map above) will quickly move across the Midwest on Friday. It will be sunny in the morning but clouds will slowly increase during the mid to late afternoon hours.
The big weather story is the storm that will impact us this weekend. A warm front will begin to push into southwest Iowa Saturday morning. The map below is for Saturday morning. North of the warm front a showers/storms will develop after midnight Friday night. Exact location of the storms is unknown at this point. The storms will continue into Saturday morning.
Here is how the GFS model looks for Saturday morning.
There might be a break in the rain/storms around midday as dry air gets pulled north ahead of the low. The low is forecast to track from Nebraska through Iowa Saturday. As the low and cold front push into eastern Iowa in the afternoon more showers/storms are expected. Here is the GFS model for Saturday evening.
Eastern Iowa sits in a position where the environment will have ingredients needed for severe weather. The severe threat would be hail, high wind, heavy rain and possible tornado or two. Now keep in mind this is still Wednesday and we are talking about Saturday. There is still plenty of time for the conditions adjust but as I see it now this is what the most likely scenario is. The map below is from the Storm Prediction Center showing where severe weather is possible Saturday.
The map below shows what is called the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. Notice the outline for the 1 value is up into eastern Iowa Saturday evening.
We will be tracking this closely for the next few days so stay up to date on the forecast this weekend. This time of year we don’t think about severe weather and are more geared toward winter conditions. We have to get back into the severe awareness mode again for Saturday.
After the storm moves east, the wind will shift to the north at 15-25 mph and gusty with highs near 60 degrees on Sunday with lots of lingering clouds.
Monday will be dry with a couple of rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: S 5-10 mph
College Football Forecast (Saturday)
Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph
Posted under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports
This post was written by Schnack on October 10, 2012
I am still receiving photos from the storms Tuesday evening in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Here is another batch of photos.
Click here for the previous post of photos of these storms.
Click here for the NWS summary of the severe weather event.
Posted under NOAA, Photo, Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on September 6, 2012
There are six new warning sirens in Johnson County. Here is the news release from the Emergency Management in Johnson County:
Johnson County- September 5th @ 10am will mark a milestone for Johnson County rural residents.
Testing will occur that day on the newest 6 rural outdoor warning sirens located in more densely populated areas of Johnson County.
Grant funds from a FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant administered by the Iowa Homeland Security & Emergency Management covered all but $30,263.00 of the $201,750.00 project.
New warning sirens have been placed during the past month in higher populated areas of Johnson County and will be tested for the first time system wide on September 5th at 10am when the County normally tests all of the 60 sirens county wide.
The six new outdoor sirens are located near the communities of Sutlif, Morse, Cosgrove, The East Overlook Recreation area by the Coralville Dam, near the Timber Lake Subdivision off Hwy. 965 south of Swisher and on Scales Bend Road north of North Liberty close to the Scales Bend Subdivision.
Posted under Severe Weather
This post was written by Schnack on August 22, 2012
