UPDATED at 4:05 PM
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy and not as cold. Low: 37-40. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High: 57-65. Wind: SW to N 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 29-33. Wind: N 5-10 mph.
Friday: AM: Sunny. PM: Increasing clouds. High: upper 50s.
Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph). High: low 60s.
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.
The sky will be mostly clear this evening giving us a chance to see the International Space Station two times. It is expected to be very bright. Here is the information:
Time: 7:23 PM
Duration: 4 min
Path: S to ESE
Time: 8:59 PM
Duration: 1 min
Path: WSW to WSW
Tonight will not be as cold as it was this morning as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows tonight will be closer to 40 degrees.
A cold front will push through the area tomorrow dry. The front will stir up a few clouds and shift the wind to the north but that is all. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday. Here is forecast position of the cold front at 1pm.
High pressure (over the Dakotas on the map above) will quickly move across the Midwest on Friday. It will be sunny in the morning but clouds will slowly increase during the mid to late afternoon hours.
The big weather story is the storm that will impact us this weekend. A warm front will begin to push into southwest Iowa Saturday morning. The map below is for Saturday morning. North of the warm front a showers/storms will develop after midnight Friday night. Exact location of the storms is unknown at this point. The storms will continue into Saturday morning.
Here is how the GFS model looks for Saturday morning.
There might be a break in the rain/storms around midday as dry air gets pulled north ahead of the low. The low is forecast to track from Nebraska through Iowa Saturday. As the low and cold front push into eastern Iowa in the afternoon more showers/storms are expected. Here is the GFS model for Saturday evening.
Eastern Iowa sits in a position where the environment will have ingredients needed for severe weather. The severe threat would be hail, high wind, heavy rain and possible tornado or two. Now keep in mind this is still Wednesday and we are talking about Saturday. There is still plenty of time for the conditions adjust but as I see it now this is what the most likely scenario is. The map below is from the Storm Prediction Center showing where severe weather is possible Saturday.
The map below shows what is called the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. Notice the outline for the 1 value is up into eastern Iowa Saturday evening.
We will be tracking this closely for the next few days so stay up to date on the forecast this weekend. This time of year we don’t think about severe weather and are more geared toward winter conditions. We have to get back into the severe awareness mode again for Saturday.
After the storm moves east, the wind will shift to the north at 15-25 mph and gusty with highs near 60 degrees on Sunday with lots of lingering clouds.
Monday will be dry with a couple of rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: S 5-10 mph
College Football Forecast (Saturday)
Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph
Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph
Posted under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports
This post was written by Schnack on October 10, 2012