A Record Cold Kickoff

The coldest temperature in history at kickoff in Jack Trice Stadium (Ames) was 17 degrees. It was the last game of the season in 1991 (November 23) against Colorado. The forecast at kickoff this Saturday is 13.

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Posted under Records, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on November 22, 2013

Warm and Windy Followed by Showers/Storms

Forecast Bar

UPDATED at 4:15 PM

Tonight: Clear. Low: 49-52. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High: 78-85. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 58-60. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny and windy (S 15-25 mph). High: low 80s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S to W 10-20 mph) with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: low 70s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High: low-mid 70s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: upper 70s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: near 70.

Weather Extra Bar

The weather will start to feel more like summer again with highs in the 80s Thursday and Friday. We will be positioned under an upper level (500 mb map below) ridge of high pressure.  We have been tracking the potential for showers/storms for Saturday, all week. The forecast 500 mb map shows a trough digging and the energy in the trough associated with the chance of showers/storms.

Sep 25 500 mb map

The wind will be gusty from the south Thursday and Friday ahead of the approaching surface cold front. The map (below left) shows the forecast position of the surface cold front Saturday morning. The map (below right) is the rain forecast from Friday evening to Saturday evening.

Sep 25 Sat Maps

Sunday will be cooler and less humid with plenty of sunshine as the cold front continues to track east away from Iowa. Another short warm-up is forecast by Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s. Another cold front is forecast to push through the area Wednesday with little to no moisture to work with. So it looks like it will come through dry with near normal temperatures returning by Wednesday.

Thursday:
Helmet Iowa_St
Iowa State vs. Tulsa (Tulsa, OK)
Forecast Click Here

Saturday:
Helmet Iowa
Iowa vs. Minnesota (Minneapolis, MN)
Forecast Click Here

Helmet Northern_Iowa
McNeese State vs. UNI (Cedar Falls)
Chance of showers/storms
High: low-mid 70s
SW 10-20 mph

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on September 25, 2013

Helmet IowaVSHelmet Iowa_St

 

Ames
Kickoff 5:00 PM
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers by 10 pm
Temp: low 70s
Wind: S 10-15 gust to 20 mph

 

 

Helmet Northern_IowaWEEK OFF

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Posted under Sports

This post was written by Schnack on September 13, 2013

Liberty Bowl Forecast

The Iowa State Cyclones will be playing Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl on December 31 at 2:30 PM. Memphis weather is usually warmer than Iowa but Memphis has recently had light snow. Click here for the current conditions and the latest forecast for Memphis, TN.

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Posted under Sports

This post was written by Schnack on December 27, 2012

It is Snowing in Dubuque

Ok…the snow is not coming from any clouds it is being man made at Sundown Mountain. They are getting ready for a good season on the slopes. Here is a photo of the snow on Tuesday.

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Posted under Sports

This post was written by Schnack on November 15, 2012

Clouds Again Tomorrow…More Sunshine This Weekend


UPDATED at 4:05 PM

Tonight:  Cloudy with light rain/drizzle. Low: 39-41. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.

Friday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High: 47-51. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 37-40. Wind: NW 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 50s

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

The well advertised wet, cold and windy day is here. The low pressure center is located over Minnesota and Wisconsin. The low is forecast to track a bit farther south and then turn east. The result will be more of the same except for the wind here in Iowa. It will be lighter but, still about 10-15 mph from the northwest. Nothing like the winds gusting to 65 mph in the Dakotas and Nebraska associated with this low. The visible satellite shows how widespread the clouds are associated with the low.


The area of low pressure is forecast to be over Lake Michigan tomorrow afternoon. Here is the forecast map for 1pm Friday.


The light rain and drizzle will continue tonight and through most of Friday. The rain will taper off during the evening. Rain amounts will be light from Thursday evening to Friday evening.

The rain reports in the last 24 hours have been a little heavier across the southern half of Iowa. Here are the reports.

The weekend will be dry and warmer. Sunday will be the warmer of the two with highs in the upper 60s. High pressure will also provide a light south wind.

Next week the weather will be a bit unsettled. There will be various fronts across the area and that will keep the chance of showers at 20-30% for each day. As the days get closer we will have a better handle on timing of the rain for the day. The good news is that the temperatures are forecast to be above normal with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. So rain chances each day but at least it will be warmer than today.


High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Cloudy with light rain/drizzle ending
Kickoff temp: 46
Wind: NW 10-15 mphCollege Football Forecast (Saturday)


Penn State vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph


South Dakota State vs. UNI (Cedar Falls)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph


Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK)
Mostly Sunny
Kickoff Temp: mid-upper 70s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on October 18, 2012

Much Colder Thursday


UPDATED at 4:25 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and colder. Low: 39-41. Wind: W 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Cloudy and colder with a 60% chance of showers. High: 46-50. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Low: 39-42. Wind: NW 10-15 mph.

Friday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and windy (NW 10-20 mph). High: near 50.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: near 60.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 70.

It has been a dreary day with a cloudy sky and few light showers. Here are some rain reports this afternoon.

Temperatures this afternoon have remained in the 50s behind the cold front. Here is the afternoon surface map.


The showers will taper off this evening leaving just a mostly cloudy sky for tonight. There is a chance of some of the clouds to break up for a short time late tonight but, cloud over quickly as the sun comes up on Thursday.

Tomorrow is going to be a cold day with high temperatures mainly in the mid and upper 40s. Normal high this time of year is in the low 60s. Last year (2011) on this date the high temperatures were in the mid 40s as well with a few rain showers.

The position of the low on Thursday will have a big impact on how strong the wind will be. Right now it looks like the wind will not be as strong as originally thought here in eastern Iowa. The low is forecast to be over Minnesota, Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Under the low the wind will not be as strong as it will be on the left or west side of it. The map below shows where the strongest wind will be Thursday afternoon. The area shaded in blue and tan will have the strongest wind. Also with the position of the low the wind direction will shift from the SW to the west during the afternoon.

Scattered showers will develop during the early afternoon and continue throughout the rest of the day. The freezing level in the atmosphere will be about 3,000 to 3,500 ft. Any stronger showers could possibly produce small hail.

The area of low pressure doesn’t move very much Thursday. Here is the forecast position of the low Thursday evening.


The low will slowly drift east toward Lake Michigan Friday. We will continue to have a cloudy sky with a few light showers. The wind will have switched to the NW at 10-20 mph keeping high temperatures chilly. Here is the rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Friday evening.


The weekend will be a pleasant one to be outside. It will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The wind will be light and temperatures will be warmer…60s. It could be as warm as the upper 60s by Sunday.

The above normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week with highs remaining in the upper 60s. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday. There might be a little better chance of showers on Wednesday as a warm front is forecast to be draped across the state from west to east. I will keep the chance of rain at 20% just because that is 7 days out.


High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)

Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers
Kickoff temp: mid 40s
Wind: NW 10-15 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 


Penn State vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph


South Dakota State vs. UNI (Cedar Falls)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 50s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph


Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State (Stillwater, OK)
Mostly Sunny
Kickoff Temp: mid-upper 70s
Wind: SW 5-10 mph

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on October 17, 2012

Weekend Storm and Drought Update

UPDATED at 4:10 PM

Tonight: Clouds and sprinkles this evening followed by decreasing clouds and colder temperatures. Low: 27-32. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 54-56. Wind: E/SE 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Increasing clouds with an 80% chance of showers/storms after midnight. Low: 43-46. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 100% chance of showers/storms. Severe storms are possible. High: upper 60s.

Sunday: Windy (NW 15-25 mph). AM: Clouds and showers ending. PM: Becoming mostly sunny. High: near 60.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy (S 10-20 mph) with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 60s.

As the cold front continues to track southeast this evening, the clouds will clear overnight. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be colder. Lows will drop into the upper 20 and low 30s.

A large area of high pressure will move quickly from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley on Friday. The map below shows how large the high will be Friday morning over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The high will provide us with a mostly sunny day.

The storm that will impact us this weekend is currently over the west coast. You can see it on the water vapor satellite image below.

The first signs of the weekend storm will be an increase in cloud cover Friday night. We will see showers/storms develop after midnight north of a warm front in southwest Iowa. The map below is for Saturday morning.
The low is still forecast to be located in NW Iowa and SW Minnesota by Saturday evening. The warm front will have lifted north into Wisconsin. High temperatures will be approaching 70 degrees. The wind with the storm will be from the south gusting to 30 mph.

During the late afternoon and evening hours more showers/storms will develop and the ingredients for severe weather is still there in the computer models. The map below shows where the best chance of severe weather would occur as of the data we have today.  The severe weather threat is hail, high wind, heavy rain and a slight chance of a tornado or two. We will continue to track this storm and have more updates through the weekend.

If we don’t get severe weather that will be good…as always…but the benefit will be the rain. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will have no problem being pulled north into this system. Rain amounts could exceed 1” in some locations. Here is the rain forecast from Thursday evening to Sunday evening.


Once the storm moves east the rain will end Sunday morning with the sun coming out in the afternoon. The temperatures will be colder Sunday with highs near 60. The wind will be the strongest in the morning from the NW at 15-25 mph. The wind will gradually diminish in the afternoon.

Monday will be dry. A warm front on Tuesday may trigger a few showers to develop but it will also push the highs into the upper 60s for the afternoon. A cold front will swing through the state Wednesday with another chance of showers. Thursday will be dry with cooler highs in the low 60s.

The updated Drought Monitor was released this morning. There was not change from last week. There is still 75% of the state in extreme drought and that was the same percentage as last week.


High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: SE 10-15 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 


Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 100% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph

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Posted under Drought, Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on October 11, 2012

Severe Weather Possible Saturday

UPDATED at 4:05 PM

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy and not as cold. Low: 37-40. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy and a little warmer. High: 57-65. Wind: SW to N 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 29-33. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Friday: AM: Sunny. PM: Increasing clouds. High: upper 50s.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with an 80% chance of showers/storms. High: upper 60s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph). High: low 60s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: low-mid 60s.


The sky will be mostly clear this evening giving us a chance to see the International Space Station two times. It is expected to be very bright. Here is the information:

Time: 7:23 PM
Duration: 4 min
Path: S to ESE

Time: 8:59 PM
Duration: 1 min
Path: WSW to WSW

Tonight will not be as cold as it was this morning as temperatures dropped into the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows tonight will be closer to 40 degrees.

A cold front will push through the area tomorrow dry. The front will stir up a few clouds and shift the wind to the north but that is all. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected Friday. Here is forecast position of the cold front at 1pm.


High pressure (over the Dakotas on the map above) will quickly move across the Midwest on Friday. It will be sunny in the morning but clouds will slowly increase during the mid to late afternoon hours.

The big weather story is the storm that will impact us this weekend. A warm front will begin to push into southwest Iowa Saturday morning. The map below is for Saturday morning. North of the warm front a showers/storms will develop after midnight Friday night. Exact location of the storms is unknown at this point. The storms will continue into Saturday morning.


Here is how the GFS model looks for Saturday morning.


There might be a break in the rain/storms around midday as dry air gets pulled north ahead of the low. The low is forecast to track from Nebraska through Iowa Saturday. As the low and cold front push into eastern Iowa in the afternoon more showers/storms are expected.  Here is the GFS model for Saturday evening.


Eastern Iowa sits in a position where the environment will have ingredients needed for severe weather. The severe threat would be hail, high wind, heavy rain and possible tornado or two. Now keep in mind this is still Wednesday and we are talking about Saturday. There is still plenty of time for the conditions adjust but as I see it now this is what the most likely scenario is. The map below is from the Storm Prediction Center showing where severe weather is possible Saturday.


The map below shows what is called the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP). A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. Notice the outline for the 1 value is up into eastern Iowa Saturday evening.

We will be tracking this closely for the next few days so stay up to date on the forecast this weekend. This time of year we don’t think about severe weather and are more geared toward winter conditions. We have to get back into the severe awareness mode again for Saturday.

After the storm moves east, the wind will shift to the north at 15-25 mph and gusty with highs near 60 degrees on Sunday with lots of lingering clouds.

Monday will be dry with a couple of rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)
Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: near 50
Wind: S 5-10 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 


Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on October 10, 2012

Tracking a Weekend Storm

UPDATED at 4:00 PM

Tonight: Showers ending this evening followed by decreasing clouds and colder temperatures. Low: 28-31. Wind: NW 5-15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cool. High: 50-55. Wind: NW to SW 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 36-39. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 60s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: near 60.

Saturday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 70% chance of showers/storms. High: mid-upper 60s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy (W 15-25 mph). High: upper 60s.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with 20% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 60s.

A cold front has been tracking across eastern Iowa today with clouds and showers. The wind has increased behind the front from the northwest and the temperatures have dropped into the 40s. Here is position of the front this afternoon.


High pressure will travel east across Missouri tomorrow and provide us with sunshine but, the temperatures will remain cooler than normal.

A cold front is forecast to cross the area Thursday. There will be no moisture to work with so the front will come through dry. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler behind the front Friday.

Friday will be dry as high pressure over the Midwest quickly travels east toward New England. Clouds will increase during the afternoon and evening as the weekend storm approaches.

Low pressure will develop over Nebraska Friday night with a warm front southwest of Iowa. Showers will spread into eastern Iowa after midnight Friday. Here is the forecast position of the low Saturday morning.


Low pressure will track into southwest Minnesota by Saturday evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely most of the day. There is still potential energy in the atmosphere for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. The map below shows where the best chance of storms might be.

There might be enough energy and ingredients necessary for severe weather Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has a highlight area of severe storms possible over Iowa. We will be tracking this closely.

The map below is the GFS model for 1 pm Saturday.

The rain will taper off shortly before sunrise Sunday morning as the low tracks northeast over northern Wisconsin. Sunday will be dry as the clouds clear but it will remain windy. Rain amounts may exceed 1” in some locations with this low pressure system Saturday. Here is the map from the GFS model for 7 am Sunday.

Monday will now be dry as a weak area of high pressure develops over Missouri.

A weak cold front will cross the state Tuesday with a slight chance of showers.


High School Football Forecast (Friday Evening)

Increasing clouds
Kickoff temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-15 mph

College Football Forecast (Saturday) 


Iowa vs. Michigan State (East Lansing, MI)
Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers
Kickoff Temp: mid 50s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


UNI vs. Southern Illinois (Carbondale, IL)
Partly cloudy
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s
Wind: S 10-20 mph


Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Ames)
Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers/storms
Kickoff Temp: mid-upper 60s
Wind: S 15-25 mph

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Sports

This post was written by Schnack on October 9, 2012