Severe Thunderstorm Watch Possible

The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a close eye on the possibility (40% chance) of issuing a severe thunderstorm watch during the next few hours. The area of concern is outlined in the image below.
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Posted under Severe Weather, Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 21, 2016

Heavy Rain Possible

Rainfall rates tonight could exceed the amounts needed in a three hour period to cause flash flooding.

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The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect tonight for most of eastern Iowa.

 

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Posted under Flooding, Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 21, 2016

Storms Tonight with Heavy Rain and Hail

A warm front, southwest of Iowa early this afternoon, is forecast to move northeast across the state.

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As it does, rain and storms will develop later this evening. The storms are expected to develop around 10 or 11 pm and become widespread in just a couple of hours. The initial storms could produce large hail and heavy rain. Then the threat turns to more of a flooding rain situation. Widespread 1-2″ of rain is expected with isolated higher amounts to near 5″. This is the reason why a Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight.

Flash Flood Watch

Flash flood guidance shows the ground could only handle a little more than 2″ of rain in 3 hours. Some places might see more than that.
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Here is the rain forecast for Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening. Most of this rain will fall tonight.
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The storms will be widespread overnight and eventually ending between 7-9 AM Wednesday.

 

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Posted under Flooding, Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 21, 2016

Hot and Humid with a Few Storms

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the counties along the Iowa/Minnesota border until 9 PM.
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The primary threat would be large hail and damaging wind with any of the storms. The timing of the storms would arrive in this area between7-9PM.

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Once the storms move south into Iowa, they are forecast to weaken quickly and in some cases fall apart completely. Any rain/storm chance would occur before midnight tonight. It remains warm and humid overnight.

Saturday is almost a repeat of Friday when it comes to the heat and humidity. The sky will be mostly sunny most of the day. Between 3-7 PM there is slight chance for a few storms to develop. At this point a severe storm is possible if they develop. The storm chance lingers into the overnight, but in an isolated fashion.

Sunday is still humid and slightly cooler by about 5-8 degrees. A mix of sun and clouds are expected.

The weather pattern becomes a bit more active next week with a chance of storms each day. Temperatures cool into the low -mid 80s, but the humidity level remains high.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 10, 2016

Wednesday Evening Update

A warm front is going to be moving across Iowa tonight and Thursday morning. A few showers/storms are forecast along this front. No severe weather is expected. Any storms that develop will have locally heavy rain, gusty wind and the potential for small hail. Here is the radar this evening.
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Here is the forecast position of the warm front across Iowa Thursday morning. A few storms are possible in the morning. Behind the front the temperatures will increase and so does the humidity level.

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A big ridge of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere will develop late this week and into the weekend. The result will be hot and humid conditions.
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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 8, 2016

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Another round of showers are possible later tonight as they move from southwest to northeast. The trend is for them to fall apart as they move toward northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. The gusty east wind continues tonight making the lows near 40° feel cooler.
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Another round of scattered showers Thursday is going to be the last of this storm system. The wind gradually diminishes through the day and becomes light by evening. The rain ends by the evening hours as well, however the clouds linger through the night.

Friday turns out a little warmer with highs near 60 with dry conditions. It might not be sunny, but at least it will be dry.

We are tracking another storm system forecast to make our weekend a wet, breezy and cool one. The best chance of rain is Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Scattered light showers will linger Sunday with a gusty east wind. The map below shows the rain forecast from Friday evening through Saturday evening. 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on April 27, 2016

Sunday Storm Update

8:30 PM UPDATE
The storms remain in western Iowa this evening. As they move east they are forecast to weaken significantly so that we see a few showers overnight. Some locations remain dry tonight. Here is the latest severe weather outlook tonight.

KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

ORIGINAL POST

Eastern Iowa remains dry through this evening with above normal temperatures. Showers and storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in western Iowa with a few storms severe (damaging hail and wind). The risk for severe storms will be across western Iowa.

KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

 

There is currently a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for western Iowa until 10 PM.
KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

The storms track into central Iowa this evening and weaken a bit. Here is  look at where the storms are forecast to be around 9 PM.

DMA 3D PM FutureTrack SatRad - RPM 4km

They continue to weaken as they cross I-35 heading into eastern Iowa. Isolated weakening storms are possible in our western counties between 9-11 PM.  The storms continue to weaken to scattered showers and eventually scattered light showers after midnight. Here is a look at the rain at 11 PM.

DMA 3D PM FutureTrack SatRad - RPM 4km 2

By the time 2 AM rolls around isolated light showers are possible. Some locations tonight will be dry.
DMA 3D PM FutureTrack SatRad - RPM 4km 3

 

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on April 24, 2016

Friday Evening Update on Sunday Storms

Here are a couple of model outputs on the potential for any storms Sunday evening. Both show storms about 7 or 8 PM in central and western Iowa. As they continue to move east overnight, they are expected to weaken.

DMA 3D PM FutureTrack SatRad - RPM 4km 1

Any storm that develop in western Iowa, particularly southwest, some of them could be severe with large hail and damaging wind.
KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on April 22, 2016

Cold Saturday Morning

Cold Thermometer
Average Last Freeze (28° or colder)
Decorah Apr 23
Waterloo Apr 18
Dubuque Apr 13
Cedar Rapids Apr 10
Iowa City Apr 8

Low temperatures Saturday morning forecast to reach the low 20s with the usual colder spots potentially in the upper teens.

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Posted under Temperatures, Update

This post was written by Schnack on April 7, 2016

Wednesday Afternoon Storm Update

Scattered showers and storms are expected through midnight. Some storms will have gusty wind, hail and heavy downpours. The best chance of storms would occur between 7 PM and midnight. After midnight, the storms will be east of Mississippi River with lingering scattered showers. The map below shows where storms may be at 8 PM. 

DMA 3D PM FutureTrack SatRad - RPM 4km

 

If storms were to become severe, the best locations would be south of Cedar Rapids. This afternoon we are dealing with a few light rain showers.

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Cooler conditions move into the area Thursday as the low moves east of Iowa. A gusty northwest wind will keep temperatures mainly steady. A few light rain showers are possible with a cloudy sky.

Thursday night temperatures drop to near freezing late. A few light rain showers may mix with a few snowflakes into Friday morning. Isolated rain showers are possible Friday with a gusty northwest wind.

The wind is stronger Saturday with gusts to 40 or 45 mph and highs in the low 40s. Sunday the wind turns to the southwest pushing warmer air in our direction with highs in the 50s. The wind is breezy, but not as windy as Saturday and the stronger wind is expected Sunday afternoon. The chart below shows the sustained winds to be around 25 or 30 mph. 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on March 30, 2016