Chilly Monday

At 1 PM the temperatures are 15 to 25 degrees colder than they were on Sunday. A gusty wind from the northwest is pulling much colder area south across the state. Clouds across northern Iowa are adding to the chill in the air. Look at the temperatures in northwest Iowa, they are in the upper 30s.

Vis Sat Radar Black Temp

 

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This post was written by Schnack on May 18, 2015

Severe Weather Outlook Update

The threat for any severe storms is diminishing. Isolated storms possible this evening then clear overnight.
KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

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This post was written by Schnack on May 17, 2015

Sunday Afternoon Weather Update

An isolated shower/storm is possible late this afternoon/evening. The threat for severe weather is diminishing. If any storm were to develop and become severe…the primary threat would be damaging wind. Tonight will be mostly clear with a lighter wind. The wind increases Monday again under a partly cloudy sky and cooler temperatures. Cooler than normal temperatures continue through Wednesday. Wednesday is also the next chance for a few showers.

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This post was written by Schnack on May 17, 2015

A Rainy Night

Most locations will be dealing with rain tonight. An area of rain is spreading ENE across eastern Iowa this evening. Here is the radar this evening.
KWWL 2015 MAX Storm ED

There is an area of heavy rain southwest of Des Moines that is forecast to move across southern Iowa later this evening/tonight. The air is a little more dry across northern Iowa preventing some of the rain from moving north. Here is the rain potential through Tuesday evening. Most of this will fall tonight and early Tuesday morning.

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There is no risk of severe weather tonight across our area. Severe storms are going to remain south of Iowa tonight. The slight risk area is mainly across Missouri and southwest into Kansas.
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This post was written by Schnack on May 4, 2015

Strong Wind Today and Windy Again Tuesday

A large area of low pressure over the Midwest is the reason for the colder temperatures this week. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend.

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Wind gusts today were close to 50 mph. Tuesday will be windy again with gusts near 35 mph. The wind increases around 8 or 9 AM Tuesday and remains windy until after sunset.

Peak Wind Gust - 4 Lines

We had a few showers this afternoon and got reports of small hail from some locations with photos from Solon and south of Hudson.

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Here is how much rain fell Saturday/Sunday/Monday:

Waterloo 1.28″
Dubuque 0.64″
Cedar Rapids 1.69″
Iowa City 1.12″

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This post was written by Schnack on April 20, 2015

Warm and Windy Wednesday….Showers/Storms Wed Night

We are tracking a cold front and it is forecast to push though eastern Iowa Wednesday night. We will have a warm and windy (S 15-30 mph gusts 35 mph) Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the 70s and could be pushing 80 across southern Iowa.

There is a slight risk of severe weather west of I-35 Wednesday/Wednesday night.
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Any severe storms to our west will weaken before making it into eastern Iowa Wednesday night. The showers/storms (non-severe) will end by noon Thursday. Some beneficial rains are possible. Some locations could see more than 1″ of rain.
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This post was written by Schnack on March 31, 2015

Tuesday Evening Weather Update

The weather profile of the atmosphere this evening is set for rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow. It just depends on where you are in eastern Iowa. In parts of central and eastern Iowa (roughly along Highway 20) sleet and freezing rain is falling. The vertical profile of the atmosphere typically looks like this for freezing rain to occur. Similar profile for sleet.

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In northern Iowa, there is not much of a warm layer, so light snow (around 1″) is still possible tonight. In parts of central and east central Iowa there is a warm layer aloft and it doesn’t look like it is going to cool off very much while the precipitation is around.

Here is the temperature profile of the atmosphere this evening roughly over the area near Highway 20..

27° 700 mb (cold)
36° 500 mb (warm)
31° Surface (cold)

Areas south of Highway 20 are most likely to be just rain.

Here are a couple of photos of freezing rain near Stanley Tuesday evening.
Viewer Photo 1 Viewer Photo 2

Precipitation is still forecast to taper off between 1 and 3 AM, from west to east. Use caution on the roads since some of the roads will be icy. Elevated surfaces have the best chance of icing up later tonight. Temperatures will hold steady near freezing all night.

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This post was written by Schnack on March 24, 2015

Fog Thins Then Sunny

 

 

One of the charts we look at to show the depth of the fog is a Skew-t.

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Here is what was left of the fog around noon.

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The map below shows the temperatures across the nation at noon central time. The temperatures look more like spring than winter.
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This post was written by Schnack on March 10, 2015

Monday Evening Update

Low pressure over Colorado, this evening, is forecast to track east into Kansas tonight and then turn northeast through Iowa Tuesday.

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A wintry mix is forecast to develop after midnight and quickly taper off around noon Tuesday. As the low moves into western Iowa Tuesday morning a warm front will lift north producing snow in northern Iowa and a light wintry mix south.

Tue Storm 7 AM
Generally north of Highway 20,  1-2″ with isolated 3″ of snow along the IA/MN state line, is possible. Areas south of the highway will see a light icy glaze in the morning before temperatures warm into the upper 30s late in the morning. Here is the probability of 1″+ of snow:

Mar 1 Snow Prob

Here is the probability of 0.01″ of ice:

Mar 2 Ice

Notice the amount of precipitation is going to light, but the roads could be pretty slick at times.

By noon, the low is exiting the state and the precipitation has just about come to an end. After the cold front pushes through, the wind direction will turn to the northwest with gusts to near 35 mph at times.

Tue Storm Noon

The temperatures will become much colder as we get into Tuesday night. Wednesday morning lows will be near zero and wind chills below zero.

Just two cold days, Wednesday and Thursday, before temperatures warm into the 30s (could be some 40s) Friday into early next week.

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This post was written by Schnack on March 2, 2015

Updated Snow Chances

The sky is clear this evening. If you look west you are able to see the planes Mars and Venus.
Feb 23 planets

 

Now to the weather. A cold front will move south across Iowa around midday switching the wind direction from the SW to the NW. Here is the forecast position of the cold front Tuesday evening.

Feb 23 forecast map
Temperatures will slowly warm into the teens by sunrise Tuesday and eventually into the low 30s by early afternoon. Not only will the wind direction change, as the front crosses, the temperatures will begin to fall in the afternoon as well. Late Monday night and Tuesday is going to be WINDY. Wind gusts to near 40 mph are possible. The wind diminishes Tuesday evening.

Clouds increase Tuesday night as we track low pressure southeast. Here is the forecast track.

Feb 23 Forecast Track

Light snow will develop late Wednesday morning and spread southeast across eastern Iowa in the afternoon. Your Wednesday evening commute could be slick with about 1″ of snow. The snow tapers off before 10 PM Wednesday. Here is the probabilities for 1″+ and 2″+.

Feb 23 Probability

It should be a powdery snow since the temperatures will be so cold Wednesday…highs in the teens. A light wind is expected as the snow falls.

Schnacks Blog 1

The next chance of snow will come Saturday afternoon or evening through Sunday. Early indications are that several inches of snow are possible with this storm. Exactly where that heavier snow falls is unknown this far out. The pattern is expected to start to change this weekend. When weather pattern goes through a change like this the models have a hard time in the extended forecast. We will continue to track the storm and have more details as the weekend approaches.

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This post was written by Schnack on February 23, 2015