Friday Evening Weather Update

Forecast Bar

Tonight: Cloudy. Low: 25-27. Wind: S 5 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy. High: 35-38. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 28-32. Wind: S 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain/snow. High: upper 30s.

Monday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of rain. High: upper 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of light snow. High: mid 30s.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of light snow/flurries. High: near 30.

Christmas: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 20s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with at 20% chance of snow. High: upper 20s.

Weather Extra Bar

A cloudy sky has been common around here lately and I don’t expect the clouds to clear any time soon. Temperatures will slowly warm to the mid-upper 30s Saturday through Monday. It turns colder by the end of the year and the first few days of 2015 as temperatures are expected to be below normal.

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We are tracking a low pressure system located off the northwest coast (south of Alaska) Friday afternoon.

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It is forecast to move across the Midwest and bring rain and snow chances Monday and Tuesday to Iowa. That is what we do know. The details on the storm are what are unknown at this time. The amount of moisture in the storm is about 0.30” and some of this will fall as rain therefore minimizing the amount of snow possible at this point. This has been pretty consistent for the last couple of days.
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All model guidance, from update to update for the last few days, has not been consistent….that is not helpful when trying to make a forecast. Once the storm moves onshore along the west coast the weather balloons will be able to get more information from the storm. This should help the models get a better handle on the situation.

As of this evening, if you have any travel plans in eastern Iowa this is how I see it.

Blog Graphic 1

Keep in mind their might be some adjustments to this storm. So if weather is going to impact you early next week stay updated on the forecast.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 19, 2014

Thursday Evening Weather Update

It was another cloudy day and a cold one. Normal high is near 30 degrees this time of year. Here are the high temperatures across the state today.

Blog Graphic 1

The sky will remain cloudy tonight with no wind and temperatures dropping into the teens by Friday morning. The sky will be mostly cloudy to cloudy through Thursday next week. A few rays of sunshine are possible Friday and Saturday.

A light rain/snow shower is possible Sunday.

I am tracking a larger storm forecast to push across Iowa Monday with rain/snow. The storm strengthens as it moves away from Iowa. Here is the WPC forecast position of the low.

Dec 18 Track
A few light snow showers are possible Tuesday as temperatures drop behind the low. Flurries may linger into Wednesday. A gusty northwest wind is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold air, with highs in the 20s, return Wednesday and will continue for the rest of the year.

There are some signs of very cold air by New Year’s Eve with temperatures in the teens for highs. Here is the temperature outlook for the last week of December.
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Here is the latest snow cover as of this morning.
Dec 18 Snow Cover

The area around Kansas City had a few inches of snow last night. Here are the reports from the Kansas City NWS office.
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Forecast Bar

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 17-19. Wind: Calm.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: 31-33. Wind: S 5 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 23-25. Wind: S 5 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: mid 30s.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain/snow. High: upper 30s.

Monday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain/snow. High: upper 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-30 mph) with a 30% chance of light snow.

Wednesday: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of light snow.

Christmas: Mostly cloudy. High: mid 20s.

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 18, 2014

Christmas Snow?

Will it be a white Christmas or not?

While it’s too early to tell, we’ve been hearing from several of you that you’re hearing of an erroneous forecast floating around for that day.

Model guidance confidence level, at best, is average Sunday through Thursday. There are many unknowns at this time — like timing, position of the low, strength, position of the fronts and much more. Early indication shows light snow if any. We will see how the week plays out. That is why there is a 20% chance of snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is no point in hyping something that is not necessary to do that far out in time.

Not much moisture, (less than 0.25″) through Wed eve. This is combined with rain & snow chances Mon-Wed.
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Here is look back at the last 119 years.

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Here is the historical probability of a white Christmas (1″ of snow on the ground).

WhiteChristmasProbabilityBinned_620_hat

Forecast Bar

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 13-16. Wind: N 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 26-28. Wind: N 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 18-20. Wind: Calm.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: low 30s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High: low-mid 30s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High: mid-upper 30s.

Monday: Cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 30% chance of rain/snow. High: mid 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy and windy (W 15-25 mph) with a 20% chance of light snow.

Christmas Eve: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-30 mph) with a 20% chance of light snow.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 17, 2014

Sunshine!!!

Clouds along the Mississippi River otherwise….

SUNSHINE!!!!!

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 17, 2014

Monday Evening Update

Here is how much rain has fallen so far…through Monday evening.

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Low pressure over Iowa tonight will track northeast. As is does, the wind will switch to the northwest and increase later tonight. The image below is the wind forecast tonight through Wednesday morning.
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Here is the position of the low this evening and the forecast track tonight and Tuesday.

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The temperatures will drop and the precipitation tapers off. Most of the precipitation will fall as rain. There is a chance of a rain/snow mix late tonight and early Tuesday morning with little to no accumulation. Anything wet may become icy by morning, so use caution walking and driving late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

Another day of clouds tomorrow. This time it will be colder than what we have been dealing with this past weekend. High temperatures will be near 30…this is our normal high for this time of year.

The recent warm weather has melted a lot of snow across the Midwest. Here is the snow cover early this morning.
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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 15, 2014

More Clouds Than Sun

High pressure across the Midwest is keeping our weather dry, but not necessarily sunny.

Dec 9 Sfc Map

The cloud cover (the light grey color in the image below) across the area is keeping temperatures cool. The temperatures across eastern Iowa at noon range from 28-35. The locations in the 30s are dealing with sunshine.

Dec 9 Vis Sat

 

Here is another image showing the clouds, but with more data on the image. The numbers may be hard to read. The red numbers are the temperatures at noon.

Dec 9 Vis Sat 2

 

The layer of clouds is not very thick. We can see that by looking at the vertical profile of the atmosphere from the sounding (image below). The top of the clouds are roughly at about 6,000 ft. (where I drew the blue line). Where the red and green lines come together is where the atmosphere is moist enough to have clouds. The farther apart these lines are, the drier the air, resulting in a clear sky.

Dec 9 Vertical Profile

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 9, 2014

More Light Snow

After light snow last night and today, Tuesday will give us a break before more snow. Low pressure will track southeast across the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

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The best chance of light snow will be after midnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The wind will be 10-15 mph from the NE as the low crosses over SW Iowa Wednesday.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on November 24, 2014

Snow in Western Iowa Sat AM

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Light snow is falling across western Iowa this morning. It will continue to move east. Snow totals in eastern Iowa forecast to be 1-3″ by Sunday morning.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on November 15, 2014

Snow North then Cold

Strong low pressure will track through the region over the next few days. The bulk of the moisture will stay to our north, but we will have some rain showers late tonight through Monday in the area, although some snow will mix in over the northern counties. It will all change to snow tomorrow night and linger into Tuesday morning. Snowfall amounts will depend on when the changeover occurs and how much melts first, but the heaviest will be toward the Minnesota border. They will have a couple of inches. Areas along and south of Interstate 80 may not get anything to stick. It will be cold and windy behind the system. Temperatures will be falling on Veterans Day.

Here is a great link for winter weather information. It is also located at the top of the blog…it says “WINTER”.

The low will track east across Iowa.

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All of the moisture from this storm will remain north across Minnesota.

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Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory north of Iowa through Tuesday.

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High temperatures through next week will be in the 20s and may continue through the following week as well.

 

 

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on November 9, 2014

12:20 PM Weather Update

A slow moving storm system is moving east to allow part of eastern Iowa to see sunshine. If you draw a line from Decorah to Cedar Rapids, the area east of that line is cloudy and area west of it is sunny. The clouds will clear all of eastern Iowa this evening.

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You can see the International Space Station this evening at 7:31 for 4 minutes. It will track from the NW to NE.

 

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Posted under Astronomy, Update

This post was written by Schnack on October 15, 2014