NEAR TERM MODELS….INCLUDING THE LATEST
HRRR…STRONGLY SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVER IA AFTER 03Z…THEN HAVING IT TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH 09Z. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LOW ACROSS EASTERN IA…NORTHERN IL INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY…AND THE FORECAST QPF IS ABOVE THESE NUMBERS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (NEAR 1.75 INCHES) AND INSTABILITY
COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO LOCALLY DROP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN AN HOUR…ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV.
Translation of above text: the latest short term computer models show storms developing after 10 pm. Heavy rain (rates of 1-2″ per hour) is possible over saturated ground could cause flash flooding.
Storms are expected to develop in western Iowa in the next few hours. The storms will track east on the nose of a low level jet pushing into Iowa helping feed the storms.
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There is a risk of severe weather with a few of the storms. The main threat would be large hail and damaging wind in addition to heavy rain.
Posted under Severe Weather, Update
This post was written by Schnack on June 25, 2013