The forecast I made last night was about 2″ higher than the actual snow reports in a few locations. The top map is the snow forecast on the news last night. The map below that shows the original forecast below with the snow reports posted on it. 

Posted under Verification

Making a snow forecast is always a challenge. The one part of this most recent forecast was that whatever the snow range I was going to go with was going to be for the entire viewing area. The more challenging forecasts are the ones where different parts of the area will get differing amounts and exactly where that transition line will be. Either way here is the latest snow forecast verification. The top map was shown Wednesday and Thursday evening before the snow began. The bottom map is the actual snow reports.

Posted under Verification

Here is a look back to my snow forecast Friday evening for snow overnight. The top map was the graphic I used on the Friday evening forecast.

The map below shows the snow reports on the forecast map background. I looks like I could have moved the 1-2″ snow area south by a half a county.

Posted under Verification

During the winter, forecasting the snowfall amount is a bit of a challenge. There are so many variable to consider and a few degrees off can make a big difference. I like to look back at my forecasts number and compare them to what actually fell. The top map is the forecast graphic I used Tuesday evening before the storm began.

The map below has the background graphic from above with the actual snow reports plotted on them.

Posted under Verification

Here is another look at how the forecast compared to actual amounts. The top map is the forecast and the bottom map is the same map but with actual snow that fell. This is a good way to compare the forecast with what actually fell.

Posted under Verification

Each time I am working and have to forecast snow I take the last snow forecast before the first snowflakes fly and compare it to what actually falls. Here is how this storm panned out. The top image is the forecast the bottom image I took the map and put on the snow totals so it is easier to compare.

Posted under Verification

Let’s take a look back at how good or bad the forecast track was from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Sandy. The map below was the forecast for Sandy issued at 11 AM Thursday, October 25.  The forecast shows the storm off the New Jersey coast Tuesday morning.

The map below shows the actual position of the storm off the New Jersey coast Monday evening. The timing was slightly off but the forecast track was right on 4-5 days out.

The image below courtesy of the Los Angeles Times, shows the red shaded areas where a mandatory evacuation was in effect for New York. The red dots show where the fatalities were (in the red shaded area). The shelters these people could have gone to were outside of the evacuation area. When warnings are issued and evacuation orders are issued it is for a reason…to protect lives.

Posted under Tropics, Verification

Here is another snow storm verification to see how my forecast from Thursday evening compared to what actually fell on Friday. Here is what I said in the forecast post from Thursday afternoon:

Snow totals will range from a trace-3”.  Areas along the river may see isolated 4″.

Here was my forecast from Thursday night for Friday:

Ok, now here are the snow reports plotted on the same background map:

Posted under Verification

I mentioned after the last storm I would do storm verifications of the snow forecast vs actual. The top map is the snow totals reported. Click here for a complete list. The bottom map was the forecast from Thursday evening. Here what I said in the forecast posted on Thursday on the blog:
“Total snow accumulations map is posted below. There may be some isolated higher amounts near 8″ across far northeast. Iowa.”

I will continue to do these verification posts after each storm.

Posted under Verification

Forecasting the weather is not as easy as it may seem. When there are high impact forecasts…such as storms…everyone is listening to every word and reading every number on the graphics to see what to expect. We do our best to be right as many times as we can. Forecasting the future is not an exact science and there are times we are not exact. When the forecast is wrong,  you have heard me say “it was not what I expected”. I am always open and honest with the viewers at home. That is the least I can do for letting me into their home every night.

I posted the image of the forecast I used on TV Wednesday night. The other image is the same background of blue and white to show where the forecast was and put the actual snowfall reports on it to see how it compared. It matched up pretty well. I probably could have inched the 3-6″ area to the west by half a county but overall I think the forecast turned out well. I will try and do this with other forecasts. I just hope in the future the results are the same.

Posted under Miscellaneous, Verification