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Here is a forecast sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) and hodograph for Sunday evening over eastern Iowa. There is good shear in the atmosphere for possible tornado development. Storms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. Stay up to date on the forecast through the weekend.

Posted under Severe Weather

UPDATED at 4:15 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 57-61. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 82-86. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and warm. Low: 62-66. Wind: SE 5-10 mph

Sunday: Partly cloudy and windy (SE 15-25 mph) with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and windy (S 15-25 mph) with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: mid-upper 70s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: near 70.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: near 70.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: low 70s.

A stationary front currently located east/west across Iowa may trigger isolated showers/storms this evening. Any showers/storms will fall apart as the sun sets. The sky will be partly cloudy tonight through Saturday night.

Saturday will be warm and a little more humid than Friday as the stationary front slowly drifts north of Iowa.

We are still tracking the chance of severe weather for Sunday. Storms west of Iowa Saturday will be moving east and falling apart Saturday night. A few might make it as far east as eastern Iowa by Sunday morning. The sky will be partly cloudy Sunday. It will also be warm, humid and windy. The cold front and low is forecast to slowly push east with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening. The following severe weather is possible Sunday afternoon/evening: large hail, high winds, flooding rain and a few tornadoes. The maps below show the forecast position of the low and fronts in addition to the slight risk area and the best chance of severe weather within that risk area.

If you have been following the forecast and blog forecasts you know that there was a chance of severe weather across eastern Iowa on Monday as well. The latest information indicates that will may still see some showers/storms but the threat for any severe weather would be south of Iowa (see map below).

Rain showers are still possible Tuesday and Wednesday as this low slowly moves east. High temperatures will cool to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves into the Midwest.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday

Posted under Precipitation Totals

From NWS
1996: A severe thunderstorm produced very large hail up to 4.5 inches in diameter at Charles City. A woman was injured by flying glass in her home.

1902: Slow moving thunderstorms produced very heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of far northeastern Iowa. Observers in Fayette and Postville measured more than 5 inches of rainfall in just a few hours. At McGregor the storm was accompanied by a terrific display of lightning which struck several buildings downtown including a saloon and billiard hall that was demolished. Flood waters flowed through most of the town, sewers backed up, and there was considerable damage to most structures in the area. Four people were injured in McGregor.

1877: Large hail fell at Hamlin in Audubon County where stones 6 inches in circumference smashed windows and crops, stripped the bark from trees, and killed many small animals.

17 May 1896 → A 2-mile wide path of utter destruction, made up of a nearly mile-wide F5 tornado plus powerful downburst winds, swept for 100 miles across northeast Kansas and the southeast corner of Nebraska. Seneca, KS was particularly hard hit and lost its opera house. Twenty-five people were killed. 17 May 1979 → It does get cold in Hawaii! The state’s record low was set on Mauna Kea, bottoming out at a rather chilly 12 degrees. 17 May 1983 → A golfer playing the Fox Meadows course in Memphis, TN was struck by a bolt of lightning that went through his neck, down his spine, came out a pocket containing his keys, and went into a nearby tree. He survived.

Posted under Weather History

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UPDATED at 4:30 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. Low: 55-60. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: 75-81. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 57-61. Wind: SE 5-10 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: low 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low-mid 80s.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: near 70.

It has been a beautiful spring day with high temperatures in the low 80s, low humidity and a light SE wind. A warm front is located east/west across southern Iowa. Along and south of the front it is humid with dewpoints in the 60s.

The warm front is going to gradually move north across Iowa tonight and Friday. Along the front later tonight and Friday showers and storms are forecast to develop. The map below show the forecast postion of the warm front at 1 pm Friday.

Some of the storms could be strong Friday afternoon, but at this time are not expected to be severe. Saturday through Monday will be humid with dewpoints in the 60s across all of eastern Iowa. Saturday will be a dry with highs in the low 80s. Sunday and Monday are the two days we have been tracking for the potential of severe weather. At this point severe storms are possible. The map below shows the areas where severe is possible Sunday and Monday. The forecast surface map is located below the outlook areas.

The chance of severe storms would be late Sunday afternoon through Monday. The threat from these storms would be hail, high winds and a few tornadoes. Stay up to date on the forecast through the weekend for the latest on this possible severe weather.

Showers and storms are still possible behind the cold front Tuesday, but I am not expecting any severe storms. Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s. Showers and a few storms are still possible with the next low pressure system.

Posted under Forecast Discussion

From NWS
1999: A severe weather outbreak produced 13 tornadoes across Iowa including an F3 that killed 2 people and injured 16 near Logan. Slowly moving storms also produced very heavy rain in northeastern Iowa from the 16th into the 17th with overnight rainfall totals as high as 6.20 inches at Fayette and 5.53 inches at Tripoli. With the ground already nearly saturated the heavy rain led to record flooding on the Turkey River at Garber and the Wapsipinicon River at Independence. Severe flooding also occurred along the Volga River from Volga to Elkport. Many roads were flooded, bridges were swept away, and major damage occurred in Fayette, Oelwein, and several other communities. It was reported that at one point most of the town of Fayette was under several feet of water.

1997: A very unusual weather scenario resulted in Sioux City breaking both its record high and record low temperatures for the date with a morning low of 33 F and an afternoon high of 91 F.

1899: A tornado produced F4 damage along a track from near Greeley in Delaware County to northwest of Colesburg and into southern Clayton County. In one family near Greeley two people were killed and four others were severely injured. Another two people were killed and 10 more injured further along the path of the tornado in Clayton County.

1886: Several days of thunderstorms and scattered severe weather on May 12-14 were followed by an unseasonably strong cold front on the 15th. During the latter part of the day on the 15th light snow was observed mixed with rain in Clayton and Scott counties, and on the morning of the 16th a widespread frost covered nearly the entire state. An observer near Iowa City noted “white frost on fields. The sycamore maples in Iowa River Valley just north of town were frosted, some leaves turned brown.”

16 May 1874 → A flash flood caused by dam slippage claimed 143 lives and a million dollars in property damage at Mill Creek, west of Northhampton, MA. 16 May 1951 → Hurricane Able performed a loop north of the Bahamas and reached Category 3 strength off Cape Hatteras, NC. 16 May 2010 → A significant hail storm struck the Oklahoma City metro area with baseball sized hail. It was one of the most damaging and costly hail storms in Oklahoma history. The hail produced significant damage to automobiles, roofs, and vegetation and was accompanied by winds in excess of 50 MPH. Hail drifts several feet deep were reported, and some locations had hail still covering the ground 12 hours after it fell. Damage estimates exceeded $500 million.

Posted under Weather History

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UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: A few sprinkles are possible this evening otherwise partly cloudy. Low: 52-56. Wind: E 5-10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers south of Cedar Rapids late in the afternoon or evening. High: 77-79. Wind: E 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Low: 57-60. Wind: E 10-15 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers/storms. High: mid 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: low 80s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms. High: near 80

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High: upper 60s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High: upper 60s.

Today is the 45th anniversary of a Midwest tornado outbreak with two F5 tornadoes in Iowa. Click here for a look back.
A few sprinkles are possible this evening otherwise a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky is expected tonight through Thursday. A stationary front south of Iowa might drift just far enough north Thursday a few showers may develop late in the afternoon or evening from Cedar Rapids south. Here is the position of the stationary front this afternoon.

The warm front will lift north across Iowa Friday bring a chance of showers/storms. Here is the WPC forecast map for Friday morning.

The rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Friday evening can vary greatly due to the scattered nature of showers/storms. Here is the general rain forecast for this time frame.

There looks like less and less of a chance of any showers/storms for Saturday. I could have gone either way with leaving in a slight chance of storms or taking them out of the forecast. I left them in for one more round of computer models. If it stays the way I see it this afternoon I will take the chance of storms out of tomorrows forecast concerning Saturday.

Now for Sunday that might be a different scenario. Sunday and Monday will be warm and humid with a gusty south wind. The atmosphere will be unstable and there is good shear. We are still tracking the potential for severe storms Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly pushes through Iowa. Here is a look at a few charts when it comes to Sunday.

Timing and specifics on the severe weather potential will be best known Saturday afternoon and/or Sunday morning. There is still time for models to adjust. So just stay up to date with the forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler with more clouds and scattered showers on the back of the surface low.

Posted under Forecast Discussion