Weather Hot Shots on Thu. November 8


Submit your weather Hot Shot by clicking here.
One photo is shown on the 5 pm newscast and one on the 10 pm newscast.


Posted under Hot Shots, Photo

This post was written by Schnack on November 8, 2012

A Big Swing in Temperatures this Weekend

UPDATED at 4:25 PM

Tonight:  Mostly clear. Low: 35-39. Wind: SE 5-10 mph

Friday: Mostly cloudy. High: 55-60. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms. Low: 48-52. Wind: SE 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm and windy (S 15-30 mph) with a 20% chance of rain/storms in the morning. High: mid-upper 60s.

Sunday: Cloudy and windy (NW 15-25 mph) with a 70% chance of rain. High: low 50s…falling in the afternoon.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, colder and breezy (W 10-20 mph). High: low-mid 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: near 40.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: low 40s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: low 40s.

Minus the wind today it was a very nice fall day. We had lots of sunshine (see image below) and afternoon temperatures reaching into the low 50s in many locations.

A cold front will move south across Iowa tomorrow as clouds build along it. Right now I am not anticipating any showers along the front during the day. The front will stall along the Iowa/Missouri state line Friday night. As low pressure west of Iowa strengthens, the cold front will transition to a warm front and begin to lift north Friday night and Saturday morning. Along the warm front there will be a slight chance of a shower/storm Friday night and Saturday morning. The map below shows the forecast position of the warm front Saturday morning.
The wind will be strong (35 mph gusts) from the south on Saturday pushing the warm air north as our high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-upper 60s.

Here are the record highs for Saturday, November 10:
Waterloo: 69 in 2010
Dubuque: 69 in 1949
Cedar Rapids: 70 in 1949
Iowa City: 70 in 1915

The low will track northeast into southern Minnesota by Saturday evening. The cold front that will be extended southwest of the low will swing through Iowa Saturday night and Sunday. Along the front rain is likely here in eastern Iowa.
Here is the forecast position of the cold front Sunday morning.

Here are the ECMWF and GFS models for noon Sunday showing the rain along the cold front.

As mentioned above, rain is likely on Sunday and some areas may see rain totals exceed one inch. After the cold front crosses eastern Iowa Sunday, the morning highs in the low 50s will fall into the 40s. The wind will shift to the northwest with gusts to 30 mph. Here is the rain forecast from Saturday evening to Sunday evening.

The rain will taper off Sunday evening as temperatures continue to fall. Monday will be a much colder day with highs only in the mid 30s. The wind will diminish Monday night and the sky will clear. There is a pretty good chance that the low temperatures Tuesday morning could be in the teens.

High pressure will keep the weather dry next week but cooler than normal. 


College Football Forecast (Saturday) 

Purdue vs. Iowa (Iowa City)
Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower/t-storm
Kickoff Temp: low 60s

UNI vs. South Dakota (Vermillion, SD)
Partly cloudy.
Kickoff Temp: low 60s

Iowa State vs. Texas (Austin, TX)
Mostly cloudy.
Kickoff Temp: upper 70s


Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on November 8, 2012

November 8

From NWS
: Unusually early bitter cold temperatures settled across Iowa on November 7-8 with most stations experiencing their earliest subzero temperatures on record. On the morning of the 8th reported low temperatures included -2 F at Burlington, -8 F at Bedford and Grinnell, -11 F at Sac City, -12 F at Atlantic and Le Mars, -13 F at Cherokee and Perry, and -14 F at Guthrie Center.

1985: A winter storm brought snowfall across northern Iowa on November 8-9 producing accumulations as high as 8.5 inches at New Hampton, 9.0 inches at Forest City and Northwood, 9.3 inches at Mason City, 9.5 inches at Osage, 10.0 inches at Cresco and Hawarden, and 11.0 inches at Decorah.

This Day in National/World Weather History …
 8 November 1870 → The nation’s brand new weather service issued its first storm forecast for the Great Lakes.
 8 November 1953 → More than 200 people were killed in New York City when the area was stuck in smog for ten days.


Posted under Weather History

This post was written by Schnack on November 8, 2012