Possible First Snow of the Season

Thanks for your patience. The blog software would not let me in to put this post together when I was able to.

UPDATED at 4:00 PM

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and windy. Low: 33-36. Wind: SE 15-25 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of a light rain shower. High: 48-52. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 32-36. Wind: N 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain/snow. High: mid-upper 30.

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy. High: mid 30s.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of snow. High: low 30s.

Monday: A 20% chance of snow in the morning than decreasing clouds in the afternoon. High: upper 20s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: upper 20s.

The low temperatures tonight will not change very much from the late afternoon readings. Clouds and a south wind will prevent the temperatures from cooling much.

We are tracking a cold front that forecast to move  through the area Thursday. Clouds and a chance rain showers are possible along the front. The map below is the HPC forecast position of the cold front at noon Thursday.
If you do see any rain the amounts would be light. Here is the rain forecast from Wednesday evening to Thursday evening.

There is a weak disturbance that is forecast to bring a chance of light rain/snow Friday. The map below is the NAM model for Friday afternoon.

Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy as we wait for possible snow Sunday. We have been tracking a storm that has the potential to bring our first accumulating snow of the season. The longer range computer models have been hinting at a storm during this time frame. The problem was that the position of the low has been all over the place. The morning (12z) model update have a some what similar solution. Here are the forecast tracks from a few computer models and HPC.

The way it looks now we will see snow Sunday beginning in the morning and tapering off early Monday morning. The wind will be strong on Sunday from the northeast. Exactly how much snow and where is still uncertain at this point. There is no point in throwing numbers out there and changing them daily as the models adjust. Once the storm moves northeast away from Iowa the sky will become partly cloudy and it will be cold with highs in the 20s.

We will continue to track the approaching storm and have more updates as the day gets closer. There is still plenty of time for the computer models to change…and trust me that can happen. It is always the challenge for a forecaster.


Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on December 5, 2012

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