A Wet Week Ahead…Colder By Thursday

UPDATED at 4:20 PM

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. Low: 57-61. Wind: S 10-20 mph.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms. High: 76-84. Wind: SW 10-20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 60% chance of showers/storms. Low: 46-56.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and isolated storms. High: low 50s to upper 60s.

Thursday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers. High: mid 40s.

Friday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of showers. High: mid 40s.

Saturday: Cloudy with 40% chance of showers. High: mid 50s.

Sunday: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers. High: near 60.

Monday: Mostly cloudy. High: mid 60s.

A cluster of storms producing hail this morning tracked east along and mainly north of Highway 20. Hail was as large as 1.5” in diameter. By the time the storm arrived to the Mississippi River most of the hail reports were less than 0.5” in diameter. Here is just one of many photos of the hail. It was taken in Cedar Falls.

Apr 29 Hail
The map below shows the rain estimate from the radar. It also shows the a rough idea of the path the core of the hail fell (red line).

Apr 29 Hail Path

There is chance of showers and storm to develop somewhere in SW Iowa tonight and track northeast. Isolated severe storms are possible with the main threat being hail and wind. A cold front is forecast to cross eastern Iowa Tuesday evening. Along the front there is another chance of isolated severe storms again. Hail and wind the primary threat. Here are the SPC severe weather outlooks for tonight and Tuesday.

Apr 29 Svr Wx Outlook
Here is the WPC forecast position of the cold front Tuesday evening.

Apr 29 Tue Eve Sfc Map
An area of low pressure will develop in the upper levels of the atmosphere and be cut off from the main air flow (typically west to east). Since it does not fall in the main air flow the low will not move very much for a few days. This is very typical of cut off lows. Under and around the low it is cloudy and cool with scattered showers. That is exactly what we should expect Wednesday through Sunday. The map below shows the upper level low over Kansas and Oklahoma Friday morning.

Apr 29 Upper Level Low
The coldest days, through Monday will be Thursday and Friday with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s.

The persistent rain expected each day will add up after awhile. Rain amounts could range from 2-4” across parts of Iowa. Here is the rain forecast from Monday evening to Saturday evening.

Apr 29 QPF
Finally by the time Monday rolls around the low will slowly move east and dry weather will be back as well as warmer temperatures.


Posted under Forecast Discussion

This post was written by Schnack on April 29, 2013

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