Sunday/Monday Storm Update as of Friday Evening

A mostly cloudy sky continues tonight through Saturday with temperatures above normal. Highs near 40 continues to melt snow.

Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures are warm again reaching near 40 degrees in the afternoon with rain changes continuing through the day. Temperatures remain warm enough Sunday night as rain continues.

Temperatures warm into the upper 30s Monday with more rain in the morning. During the afternoon the wind increases from the northwest with temperatures start to drop into the low 30s changing light rain over to light snow. Light snow continues through the evening and tapers off shortly after midnight Monday night.

The map below shows where heavy snow (6″+) is most likely. Right now it is northwest of Charles City Sunday night into Monday. Any change in the track of the storm, that snow band will adjust as well. That means if it moves 50 to 100 miles southeast, so does that heavy snow. Stay updated on the forecast for any changes in the forecast.

Tuesday through Friday are dry with highs warming back to near 40 by the end of the week.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Update

This post was written by Schnack on January 19, 2018

Update on Sun/Mon Storm

The sky is mostly cloudy tonight and remains mostly cloudy through the weekend. Dry weather continues through Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s. Friday is a breezy day with a south wind at 10-20 mph.

We continue to track a storm forecast to move across Iowa Sunday. The likely storm track brings us drizzle or freezing drizzle late Saturday night and early Sunday morning before temperatures warm above freezing. This happens as the sun rises Sunday morning. Rain chances continue through the day and most of the night.

High temperatures Monday are early in the morning and then fall into the 20s by the afternoon with a gusty northwest wind. Rain transitions to snow Monday morning and light snow is forecast to continue through the day before tapering off during the evening. Details on snow amounts and locations are not known yet since any wobble in the storm track will change the placement of the rain/snow and the amounts.

The yellow arrows on the maps show the likely path of the storm. The yellow lines show the possible shift either northwest or southeast of the track. The rain/snow on the map is based on the track with the yellow arrows. Any shift in that track will shift the rain/snow accordingly.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Update

This post was written by Schnack on January 18, 2018

Rain/Snow Possible Later This Week

Our first January thaw. The last two days have been quiet with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 30s. These kind of highs are expected through Wednesday and potentially Thursday in the morning before temperatures drop with a gusty north wind.

The latest surface map shows a low pressure system off the west coast. This is the storm forecast to bring the chance of rain/snow to the Midwest.

The low pressure is forecast to move into western Kansas by Wednesday evening. The map below shows the position of the low pressure systems and associated cold fronts at that time. This is all forecast to move east with a chance for rain Wednesday night and Thursday morning in eastern Iowa.

The chart below shows the forecast wind speed and direction Wednesday night and Thursday. The high temperatures Thursday will occur in the morning. The wind shift to the northwest is about 5 in the morning. This chart is for Waterloo. The wind shifts to the northwest a couple hours later east in Dubuque. Temperatures will begin to drop and transition rain to snow late Thursday morning into early afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty as to when the rain changes to snow, where and how much snow will accumulate. The map below shows the best chance of snow in northwest Iowa with less of a chance farther southeast.

Here is where the most moisture from this storm will fall Wednesday evening to Thursday evening. There is a possible dry slot across eastern Iowa. This will cut back on the amount of moisture for either rain/snow.

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Posted under Update, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on January 8, 2018

Light Snow then Bitterly Cold

Light snow will spread west to east across eastern Iowa tonight beginning around 10 or 11 PM. Light snow will accumulate to around 1” causing slick roads. By sunrise, low temperatures are not as cold as last night. Lows are near zero. The wind is from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

Scattered light snow showers and flurries are possible on and off through the day with an additional trace to 1”. The nature of the snow is very powdery so the 10-15 mph wind from the south will blow it around in the open country keeping roads slick throughout the day. High temperatures warm into the teens.

Thursday night is dry with lows near zero. We are tracking another band of snow for Friday. The best chance of light snow would across the southwestern half of the state. So for eastern Iowa, that means from about Cedar Rapids south and west to see about 1 of snow. Areas northeast would see snow amounts less than 1”.

Saturday is bitterly cold with morning lows near 10 below zero and daytime highs near zero. The wind will be a factor during the day with wind gusts to near 25 mph pushing wind chills to about 25 below during the day.

The bitterly cold air sticks around through Tuesday with highs in the single digits and lows around 10 below zero. There is another chance of light snow/flurries Wednesday.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on December 27, 2017

Late Week Storm Update

We are still tracking the potential for a winter storm across the Midwest. The details on what type of precipitation, where and how much are still a bit “foggy”. We still have a few days for some forecast track adjustment. This is very typical for the forecast track to change from day to day. Small changes in the track will have big changes in the type, where and how much questions.

The map below shows the forecast track through Thursday morning. The low is in Montana Wednesday morning and moves southeast into eastern Colorado by the evening. It starts to turn east overnight and is in southern Kansas Thursday morning. It is then forecast to turn northeast. This is where it gets a bit “foggy”. There are different models we use for guidance and most of them put it somewhere across southeast Iowa, but exactly where…we will have to wait another 24-36 hours to be more confidence.

Here is a map showing the percent chance of snow accumulation. The best chance, for eastern Iowa, will be along the Iowa/Minnesota state line.

The storm is forecast to bring a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow. Likely starting out as rain and transitioning to snow. Exactly how fast that happens and how much moisture is in the storm are some of the details yet to be determined.

Model guidance is updated several times a day and we expect some chances with each update. Typically the changes become less and less as the time of the event gets closer. With that said some of the models are showing around 1″ of snow for Waterloo by noon Friday. Now using that information and the map above…maybe a little more snow is possible north of Waterloo and less south of Waterloo. Keep in mind that is just one location in eastern Iowa. As we get closer to Thursday we will have a better handle on all the details.

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Posted under Forecast Discussion, Update, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 18, 2017

Latest Drought Monitor

The latest Drought Monitor was released Thursday morning, and through August 8th, 12.49% of Iowa is experiencing a Severe Drought, which is up from 7.05% last week.   Only 28.53% of the state is not experiencing some sort of drought at this time, which is down from 33.00% last week.

The latest rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center doesn’t show much rain over the next 7 days across eastern Iowa.  Any rain, however, would be great news.

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Posted under Drought, Precipitation Totals, Update

This post was written by Kyle Kiel on August 10, 2017

Hot and Humid with Storm Chances

The heat and humidity wasn’t too bad today for July standards. That is all about to change in the next 24 hours. The humidity level is on the high-end of the “slightly humid” range of our comfort scale. The humidity level increases Tuesday morning and reaches the “uncomfortable” range as dew points are forecast to reach into the low 70s. If you look at the current dew point temperatures you will see central Iowa already has the dew points in the low 70s.

There is a surface front (see map below) orientated north south across central Iowa. West of the front is the higher dew points.

The front in the Dakotas will drop south tomorrow and stall across northern Iowa. A few showers and storms are possible along the front. The front meanders north and south a little from day  to day. The position of the front and any boundaries left from previous storms will be the focus for storms through the week. The map below is the rain forecast through Thursday evening.

 

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on July 17, 2017

Evening Storms

Here is a look the storms across parts of eastern Iowa and the satellite (GOES 16).

Here is the loop of the satellite.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on June 14, 2017

Frost Tonight

Areas of frost possible tonight. Cover up cold sensitive plants.

All clouds clear during the evening and the wind lightens up. The sky is clear overnight and the air is calm. Patchy areas of frost are possible as temperatures drop into the low and mid 30s by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday is warmer with high temperatures near 60 degrees and the wind is light from the southeast. A sprinkle or stray shower is possible with a mix of sun and clouds during the day. The sky becomes mostly clear Wednesday night. Not as chilly with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Thursday and Friday are mostly sunny and breezy with a north wind around 10-20 mph. Highs both days are in the low to mid 60s.

Friday and Saturday remain dry with a lighter wind and highs in the mid 60s.

Sunday and Monday are warmer with temperatures getting close to 70 under a mostly cloudy sky.

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Posted under Frost, Update

This post was written by Schnack on May 2, 2017

Cloud Line

The clouds have cleared in western Iowa. Not so lucky in eastern Iowa. The black line is the back edge of the clouds this evening.

The sounding (vertical profile of the atmosphere) from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities shows a pretty thick layer of clouds.

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Posted under Update

This post was written by Schnack on May 1, 2017