Mild Days Ahead, Before Winter Returns

Enjoy the mild temperatures while they last, because change is on the way as we head into the winter season.  (FYI: Meteorological winter begins Dec. 1, while astronomical winter [solstice] begins Dec. 21 at 10:28 AM this year).

Temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across eastern Iowa through Wednesday.  It’s late Wednesday into Thursday that we see a strong trough dig into the southwestern United States. An area of low pressure develops at the base of the trough, and will begin to track northeast.

At this point in time (Saturday evening), there’s still a spread in guidance as to where the low pressure will track, which will be crucial in forecast how much rain/snow/mixture we receive, and the amounts. The Weather Prediction Center has out probabilities of seeing a quarter of an inch of snow/sleet (melted).  The greatest chance for that is across northern Iowa (click the image to make larger).

 

It will also determine how warm temperatures will get before colder air moves in behind.  We are a bit more confident in the cold air behind the system.  How cold?  That’s where confidence is lowered again.  It will all depend on the track of the storm and how much (if any) snow is on the ground.  Stay tuned for further updates.

In fact, the Climate Prediction Center has much of the center of the nation with a good chance of having below average temperatures through the end of the year.

Share

Posted under Climate, Temperatures, Winter Weather

This post was written by Kyle Kiel on December 16, 2017

Tags: , , ,

Probability of a White Christmas

The question on many people’s mind these days, “Are we going to have a white Christmas.”  Well, we can tell you that some of the computer model guidance goes out to Christmas, and the data is all over the place, so it is too early to have a definite ‘yes’ or ‘no.’  The best we can do right now, is show the historical probability of a white Christmas for Iowa.  This information is coming from the NOAA and NCEI (National Center for Environmental Information).  This is data pulled from 1981-2010.

Share

Posted under Climate, Holiday, Stats, Winter Weather

Snow Reports Monday

Eastern Iowa saw our first significant snowfall on Monday.

Snow totals mainly fell in a range from a trace to half an inch. There were, however, some that saw up to two inches of fresh snow Monday. The greatest snow amounts fell close to the Mississippi River.

Others may have seen snow falling but it melted once it reached the ground.

Waterloo Trace
Dubuque 1.3
Cedar Rapids 0.0
Iowa City 0.0
Bellevue LD 12, IA 2.0
Center Point 0.6 NNW Trace
Central City 6.7 W Trace
Central City, IA Trace
CHARLES CITY, IA 0.1
COGGON, IA 0.1
CRESCO 1NE, IA 0.2
Decorah 4.9SE 0.9
Decorah 7.9 ENE 2.0
Dubuque 1.4 WSW 1.3
Dubuque 2 WNW 0.7
Dubuque 2 WSW 2.0
ELKADER 6SSW, IA 0.7
Ely 0.5 SE Trace
FAYETTE, IA 0.1
FULTON, IA Trace
Gilbertville 1.0 NW Trace
GUTTENBERG L & D 10, IA 1.0
IONIA 2W, IA Trace
IOWA FALLS, IA Trace
LOWDEN, IA 0.2
MANCHESTER NO. 2, IA 0.2
MAQUOKETA 4 W, IA 0.2
Monona WWTP, IA 1.2
NASHUA 2SW, IA 0.1
New Hampton 0.4 SW Trace
Oelwein 0.8 WNW Trace
OSAGE , IA Trace
Quasqueton 1.8 S Trace
Solon 0.3 ESE Trace
STRAWBERRY POINT, IA 0.4
Vinton 1 SE 0.2
VOLGA 1NE, IA 0.5
Waterloo 1.8 SSE Trace
Waucoma 3.2 S Trace

 

Share

Posted under Precipitation Totals, Winter Weather

This post was written by Rachael Peart on December 12, 2017

Eastern Iowa Snow Monday

Many in eastern Iowa saw snow beginning late Monday morning.

Decorah late Monday morning

Near the Dubuque County Fair Grounds (Virginia Castillo)

Guttenberg snow Monday afternoon (Rod McLane)

The snow continued into the afternoon and mostly cleared the area before sunset Monday.

Cedar Falls (Kyle Kiel)

Graupel in Jesup (Carol Wilson)

Durango (Michele Bussan)

Lime Springs (Mike Danahue)

Totals ranged from a dusting to 1.0 inch for most. Snow totals of 1.0 inch in Dorchester and 2.0 inches in Dubuque county were also reported.

Share

Posted under Photo, Winter Weather

This post was written by Rachael Peart on December 11, 2017

South Texas Snow Reports

 

Here is a wider view so show you where the snow fell in the southern part of the nation.

Share

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 8, 2017

Light Snow and Windy Tonight

Light snow is forecast to move southeast across parts of eastern Iowa tonight. The timing of the snow would be after 7 or 8 pm to 3-4 am. Some locations could see around 1.0″ of snow. The wind increases tonight from the northwest at 15-25 mph. So where snow did accumulate it will be blowing around. Use caution if you travel tonight. Some roads might be slick due to the snow.

Share

Posted under Forecast Discussion, Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 8, 2017

This Doesn’t Happen Often

Share

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 8, 2017

Southern Snow

We have not had our first 1″ of snow in eastern Iowa yet this fall/winter. Some are happy about that while at the same time some are not. As we sit here and wait for our first 1″ of snow….at some point arrive. It is not in the forecast at least through next week.

Parts of the south will receive 1″ of snow first, at least first compared to eastern Iowa. It could be as far south as south Texas. A few Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for Texas east to Mississippi and Alabama. Now you have to keep in mind the threshold for these warnings are much different than what we would need to have a winter storm warning issued in eastern Iowa. The locations in south Texas will get 1-3″ of snow.

Here is a look at the snow falling at College Station, TX this evening.

Here is a map showing the percentage of winters with measurable snow in the south. South Texas is under 5%.

Share

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on December 7, 2017

Meteorological Winter

December 1st marks the beginning of Meteorological winter; the three coldest months out of the year climatologically.  (December, January, February)

The first few days of December will be above average, but by next week through the middle of the month, temperatures are forecast to be at or just below average.

Share

Posted under Uncategorized, Winter Weather

This post was written by Kyle Kiel on December 1, 2017

Comparing Snow Cover

Below is a view of what the snow cover was today compared to the same day last year. The image with snow across most of Minnesota was 2016.

Share

Posted under Winter Weather

This post was written by Schnack on November 24, 2017